Category Archives: S&P 500

The Market Set-Up … This Week

November 6, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Food Supply, GDX, Genesis 41, GLD, GOLD, Green Energy, ice-age-farmer, IWM, IYR, LABD, LABD-22-09, Positions, Prechter, QQQ, Real Estate, Russell 2000, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, The Speck, TSLA, XLF, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

What To Watch … Biotech, Gold, Real Estate, Tesla

Biotech:

There’re a lot of moving parts to biotech and it’s like a game of chicken.

Is there going to be another ‘planned’ event pulled out of the bag that requires ‘protection’ or will this side (and this one) win-out before that happens?

Price action’s always the final arbiter and right now, it’s positing lower.

Gold:

Gold (GLD) ‘blipped’ higher on Friday and the usual suspects are out touting the hyperinflation narrative.

Owning (some) precious metals seems to be a good thing.

However, the public constantly knee-jerks into this sector and is absolutely rabid in their behavior (i.e., silver stockpiles are running out!!!).

It suggests at least, there’s something else afoot.

Prechter published in the early 2000’s, Central Banks, are followers, not leaders. The fact they are buying gold at this point, may be a contrary indicator.

Talk about going against the herd. 🙂

Over and again, it’s the boring (does not generate ‘clicks’) food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

Real Estate:

What can be said?

It’s the largest manufactured bubble in world history and it has already popped.

Thinking it’s all going to sort itself out in a year or two is delusional. We’ve probably got decades of bear market.

Tesla:

Anyone with an anode of research capability, knows the whole EV premise, is based on a falsehood.

However, that fact is probably not what’s going to bring Tesla (and the rest of the market) down.

Let’s stop for a moment and consider the above link which has been available for nearly four-years.

How many views? Just 9,824 (as of this post)

That equates to only 0.003% of the U.S. population.

As the global supply chains implode, getting parts and having stable infrastructure (i.e., electricity) will probably be the defining factor.

Now, on to the charts.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily Close

The following sessions will let us know if we’re at the right edge of the downtrend line.

We’ve already had an up-thrust reversal and a test of that reversal. last Friday was lower … probabilities point down.

Gold GLD, Daily

Looking at the chart on the strategic, longer term, Friday’s blip is hardly noticeable. We’ve already presented how this could be a minor up-thrust (reversal) in itself.

To keep the upside intact, price action must remain and continue above current levels.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

Real estate may be working its way into an up-thrust condition. As shown, Fibonacci Day 21 from the October 13th, low is this coming Thursday, the 10th.

According to the Economic Calendar there are several potential catalysts that may push the price above resistance (temporarily).

Tesla TSLA, Weekly

The short-term look has been presented here.

Longer term downside potential is disconcerting.

Major support near the 25-level.

Summary

When we look at last Friday’s action (table below), it’s clear SPBIO, was not part of the upside party.

Of course, we won’t know if it’s’ the downside leader until subsequent sessions.

In the meantime, the market positioning remains unchanged.

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

LABD-22-09:

Special Note:

This sector and leveraged inverse LABD are highly volatile. Character of the market can change at any time.

LABD may be exited without notice.

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, 21.23, 21.65 Stop @ 19.41

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Reversal Bellwether

November 1, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Bonds, LABD, LABD-22-09, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, TLT, TMF, TMF-22-01, ZeroHedge

Is The ‘Collapse’ Back In Play?

When the market does not respond as expected, that means something else is happening.

Such may be the case for bonds.

Yesterday, we got this announcement during market hours.

Of course, the already hammered bond market (TLT), got hammed some more.

It’s what happened next, and what’s happening today, that’s important.

That is, the sell-off was quickly reversed (to the upside) with that upside continuing this session.

The bond supply is being absorbed.

So, what does that mean?

It’s possible, the bounce, melt-up, squeeze or whatever one wants to call it could be over. There may already be a ‘flight to safety’ if there’s such a thing these days.

But let’s not hypothesize on what could be happening. The market itself (price action), tells us.

Bonds TLT, Daily

At about mid-session, this is where we are.

We’re right at the downtrend line.

The attempt to mover lower (yesterday), has been rejected.

As a result of today’s new daily high, the stop on position TMF-22-01, has been moved up (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, we’re now between the downtrend and the ‘rejection’; something’s likely to break.

Summary

The S&P (SPY) just posted an up-thrust reversal early this session and is still moving lower as of this post.

Keep in mind, all of this is happening before any Fed announcement … as if the market has already decided.

A quick note on biotech, SPBIO.

Position size has been increased in SPBIO, leveraged inverse LABD, as shown below (not advice, not a recommendation).

This sector remains at The Danger Point®

If the bounce really is over, biotech is likely to get hit the hardest.

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

TMF-22-01:

Entry @ 7.166, Stop @ 6.77***

***, Indicates change

LABD-22-09***

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71***, Stop @ 18.69***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Set-Up Details … Real Estate

October 22, 2022 By in 1929, DRV, DRV-22-05, Economic Ninja, GDX, IBB, IWM, IYR, Positions, QQQ, Real Estate, S&P, S&P 500, Scott Walters, SLV, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, Wyckoff 1 Comment

At A ‘Confluence’

The last update, posted late in the session, said with the upward bias provided by the sizable Op-Ex event, we can look for the weakest (or one of the weakest) sectors.

The chart below summarizes yesterday’s action:

Friday 10/21/22, Single Day Gains

Gold miners GDX, is the outlier at the top and real estate IYR, the outlier at the bottom.

Before anybody gets excited about ‘hyperinflation’, just a reminder; silver SLV’s, action has retraced to a weak 38.2% (chart not shown), as it was forecasted to do from last week’s update:

“Silver (SLV) is currently at support levels; therefore, some upward action (staying below SLV: 18.5) is normal behavior.”

Price action is the final arbiter; we’ll see what happens next.

Back to real estate.

Professional Wisdom: ‘The Crash’

We’re going to use the experience and insight provided by Scott Walters concerning the potential for real estate; that is, we’re in a world-wide event the scale of which, no one alive (and possibly, ever) has seen before.

The Economic Ninja has just seconded that opinion (time stamp 3:45) with his quote:

“Right now, we are in the greatest collapse since The Great Depression; and I believe it will be as severe, if not worse, sharper, faster, than what people experienced in 1929”.

So, what would that ‘collapse’ look like on a chart of real estate, IYR?

Ah, yes. That’s the hard part.

To take useful wisdom like that above, and somehow map it into potential market behavior.

For that, we’re going to use the Quarterly chart of IYR.

Real Estate IYR, Quarterly

There are still two months and one week left to go in the 4th, Quarter.

We’re at a confluence of price action as we’ll cover in the Hourly chart farther down; first, what’s the potential?

Here is one artist’s rendition (not advice, not a recommendation).

That puts it into perspective.

We may know at the very next open, if we’re pivoting higher or continuing the decline.

Butterfly In The Amazon

Of course, the market’s not going to tell anyone its next move. We have to decipher that (read the tape) ourselves.

Sometimes, as Wyckoff said a century ago … ‘It’s as if the weight of a feather is all that’s needed, to push the market further or to reverse.’

So, let’s look at that feather (the butterfly) on the hourly chart.

Since we’re positioned short (DRV-22-05), the chart’s inverted to mimic leveraged inverse fund DRV.

Real Estate IYR, Hourly (Inverted)

The important part is we see a repeating pattern of trendlines.

Moving in closer, we have this. The blue arrow is ‘expected’ action based on the analysis up to this point (not advice, not a recommendation).

Moving even closer, the zoom shows IYR, finished the day in Wyckoff spring position; having pushed past minor support (resistance on non-inverted).

Summary

If IYR opens lower or gap-lower, we’ll have to wait and see if it posts a new daily low (below IYR ,77.24).

If that happens, we have some confirmation lower prices are ahead and can then set a definitive stop for DRV-22-05.

Obviously, a higher open (pushing past IYR 78.91), negates the trade.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … The Set-Up

October 21, 2022 By in Biotech, Dow 30, DRV, DRV-22-05, IYR, Nasdaq, Positions, Real Estate, S&P, S&P 500, Scott Walters, SPBIO 1 Comment

Looking For The ‘Reversal’ To Fail

The $2-Trillion Op-Ex today, provided upward bias for the overall markets.

Not expected, was biotech SPBIO, to be part of that move.

After today and possibly because of this announcement, we’re out of the sector until price action demands attention.

While the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ were up significantly for the day, obviously absent, was real estate (IYR).

Days like today help narrow the focus. Who is not participating in the up move?

While the other indices are up multiple percentage points, IYR, finished the day up only +0.69%.

Real Estate (IYR) Weekly

The prior linked YouTube post from Scott Walters is not the premise for going short (not advice, not a recommendation).

It is, however, a reminder that what’s going on, is at a level no one has seen before.

Unless IYR, somehow gets out of the channel, it’s declining at -84%, annualized.

The set-up for this short trade (DRV-22-05) is based on a weak retrace (to 38.2%) on the daily with the anticipation, today’s reversal bar will ‘fail’ at the next session.

Real Estate, (IYR) Daily

The expectation for the next session is straightforward; lower open or gap-lower open and posting a new daily low.

The chart of IYR below, shows what we’re looking for (not advice, not a recommendation).

Obviously, a new daily high at the next session negates the set-up and warrants a trade exit.

A new daily low and we’ve got a ‘failure’ of the reversal bar; DRV-22-05, is liklely to be increased (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Wheels Come Off … Biotech

October 13, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DRV, DRV-22-04, GDX, GDXJ, IYR, LABD, LABD-22-08, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, The Epoch Times, ZeroHedge

Unraveling, Quickly

This just out on ZeroHedge:

An Epoch Times article, using excerpts from a Lancet Report, linked here.

It’s best to let the reader sort out what it all means, arriving at one’s own conclusions.

Of course, the obvious problem, the ‘elephant’ is not addressed directly.

However, VAERS is quoted in The Epoch Times article, thus giving it legitimacy.

Leading The Downside

For some time, this site’s highlighted, biotech (SPBIO), as unique to all other indices save GDX, and GDXJ.

That is, it’s down the most since the bear market started.

As of today’s close, it’s down over – 54%, from all-time highs while the S&P is down only – 23.7%.

As documented over several years, the sector’s unique; it’s at risk (more than other indices) to implosion.

With today’s close, it looks like we’re at a critical juncture.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

The unmarked weekly chart

Compressed, with added trendlines.

It’s an obvious trading channel of immense size … but so is nearly everything else concerning these markets. We’re operating at unprecedented scale in unprecedented times.

But wait, there’s more.

The trading channel has Fibonacci time correlation(s).

We’ll expand the weekly chart for more clarity.

From channel entry, week ending 9/3/21, to the right-most contact point (week ending 9/16/22), is Fibonacci 55-Weeks.

Channel width measured from week ending 1/28/22, to the same contact-point, week ending 9/16/22, is a Fibonacci 34-Weeks.

We’re at The Danger Point®

Positions & Current Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

The following is the positioning of my firm’s main (largest) account.

DRV-22-04:

Entry @ 66.463, Stop @ 63.98

Discretionary exit (today) @ 75.96***

Trade Closed

LABD-22-08:

Entry @ 25.1278, 24.735, 26.025***, 22.99***, Stop is Open (to be set at next session)

***, Indicates change

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

What ? … There’s No ‘Pivot’ ?

August 27, 2022 By in DIA, Dow 30, Holiday Turns, Jerimiah Babe, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, SPY, Wyckoff 1 Comment

There Never Was

Well, another financial media lie has come and gone.

As Jerrimiah Babe says, time stamp 6:05, at this link:

“The good times are over.”

The Dow Jones was down over 1,000 points on the day and finished (along with the S&P, NASDAQ) right at the session lows.

Typical action for the markets under such conditions, is a follow-through at the next trading session, Monday.

Recall, it’s been presented many times on this site (Holiday Turns), major reversals tend to occur just before, during, or just after, a holiday week.

The 2008, countertrend reversal took place on the Monday (5/19/08), leading into Memorial Day Weekend. The big one in 1929, was the Tuesday (9/3/29) following the Labor Day Weekend.

The current reversal (discussed below), if it holds, has come a couple weeks early in the ‘holiday’ window.

It’s possible because of the massive size of this monster, that a week or two does not make a difference.

Let’s look at the Dow 30 and its perfect Wyckoff Up-Thrust, Reversal, and Test.

Dow 30, DIA Daily Close

Daily Close with Fibonacci retrace levels identified.

A close-in look on the reversal area.

Looking at the zoom-chart above, we had a Wyckoff Up-Thrust that touched 61.8%, then declined sharply before coming back to test at 50%.

After the test was another sharp decline. One can make the case, the up-thrust has been tested.

Continued (overall) downside is the higher probability with a ‘no Fed pivot’ providing the tailwind.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Three Amigos of Biotech

August 20, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, BEAM, FATE, IBB, LABD, LABD-22-05, MRNA, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, TDA-LABD-22-02, TWST, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

BEAM, TWST & FATE

It looks like having a real (positive) P/E, may be about to be important.

The prior biotech update said that so far, no P/E, negative P/E, and ‘no money down’ was not affecting the sector.

That is, until now.

Well, ok. I made up the ‘no money down’, part. 🙂

That little jest does not take away from the fact, biotech SPBIO, and its top three weightings, BEAM, TWST and FATE, have all reversed, decisively to the downside.

For the week just ended, BEAM is down – 22.86%, TWST down – 19.18%, and FATE down – 14.16%.

Back at the ranch in the IBB index, Moderna (MRNA) is also down – 14.65% for the week.

So, we have confirmation the entire industry is now continuing its downward course.

Contrast the reversal of index SPBIO, at – 7.04%, with S&P (SPY) at – 1.16%, and the market itself is telling us where to go for opportunity (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this point, all three amigos (BEAM, TWST, FATE) are in downward trading channels.

Trading channel for BEAM is the most aggressive. The weekly chart is below.

Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) Weekly

If BEAM maintains its channel for the rest of this year, the chart below shows the target area(s) for price action.

The coming week may let us know if this channel will be confirmed or negated.

Recall, the S&P is topping out and appears to be reversing.

Goldman says the squeeze is over but that ‘downside is limited’.

We’ll see.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Pivot’, or ‘The Channel’

August 6, 2022 By in CAT, Copper, CPER, Cramer, FMC, MRNA, S&P, S&P 500, SPY, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Who’s On First?

Evidently, according to this out on ZeroHedge, stocks will be a good buy when the Fed pivots; apparently getting back to 2%, inflation.

So many lies, half-truths and pre-suppositions, all in one sentence. Let us count the ways.

Actually, let’s not.

At this point in time, one does not want to draw any undue attention.

A better idea is to see what the market’s saying about itself. This is the crux of Wycoff analysis.

Wyckoff stated a century ago (1902, to be exact), stock prices moved based on an energy of their own; at times, completely disconnected from fundamentals.

Looking at those markets and from my own tracking spreadsheet, 106, indices or equities are currently monitored.

That list will change over time but it’s typically around 100 or more ticker-symbols.

Of that number, the following are those currently in a downward sloping trading channel.

The List

Looking at the charts on a weekly basis:

AEM, BBY, C, CAT, COF, CORN, CPER, CVX, DIA, DJ-20, DJUSBM, FCX, FMC, GDXJ, GLD, GM, HYG, IYR, PLD, SLV, TSM, USB, USO, WY, XLF, XOM, XOP

Others that may be about to confirm their channel:

IBB, MRNA, SPBIO, SPY

The Charts

Two examples are from the above list; the important part is we’re going to choose ‘heavy industry’.

Since nobody can seem to figure out the definition of ‘recession’, we’ll help them out a bit.

Caterpillar CAT, Weekly Chart:

The right trendline’s declining at approximately -67%, on an annualized basis.

Next up, FMC Corp.

FMC Corp., Weekly Chart:

FMC’s in a little better position with its right side declining at ‘only’ – 55%, annualized.

But wait, there’s more.

Since we’re on a roll; let’s throw in a bonus and include a market directly connected to the economy; Copper.

Bonus Chart:

United States Copper Fund, CPER, Weekly

Even with last week’s continued but fading S&P, short covering, CPER could not close higher.

Ruh-Roh.

CPER is heading south at a whopping -79%, annualized.

Ok, one more.

This one’s not quite yet confirmed but we’ll probably get a decision this coming week.

We saved the best (worst) for last

Moderna MRNA, Weekly

From the lows during the week ended June 17th, to last Friday’s high, was a Fibonacci 8-Weeks.

It’s also a near exact Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace.

On top of that, price action is testing the underside of resistance formed during the break below the 200-level at the beginning of the year.

If next week we see a pivot lower, MRNA’s potentially declining at a well-deserved, -84%, annualized.

Summary

We don’t have to listen to supposed experts and analysis ‘banter’. The charts themselves tell us the next probable direction, i.e., down

Who’s on First and What’s on Second.

The media?

Well, let’s just say they might find this link useful.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Grinds To A Halt

June 4, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD-22-02, Neil McCoy-Ward, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO 3 Comments

‘Two Weeks, To Flatten The Curve’

On a weekly closing basis (as we’ll see below), it’s obvious.

Upward (net) progress in biotech SPBIO, has come to a standstill.

While the media continues to foment the lie that somehow interest rates have reached their limit, or ‘Da Fed’, is going to do this or that, behind the scenes the plan … set out years ago, continues to unfold.

Before we get to the charts, let’s not forget what’s happening ‘out there‘. The number of idiots seems to be increasing without bound.

As Goethe said way back in 1826, ‘There is nothing more frightful than ignorance in action’. He was being polite with the ‘ignorance’ part.

Now, on to the charts.

The un-marked, chart of biotech SPBIO, is below.

The second chart zooms-in, showing the percentage changes on a closing basis.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

Zoom in, showing net progress.

One would think, since biotech has dropped so significantly, there’s no more (downside) left.

Certainly, anything can happen.

However, the premise is, the overall collapse is still in the early stages.

We have not (yet) had a 50% – 90%, drop in the S&P.

In addition, pension funds are likely to go broke.

So all those $250,000/year ‘retired’ lifeguards that J.B. has spoken about? Well, how do you leverage that ‘skill’ to another industry?

SPBIO, Inverted

Next up, the inverted chart of SPBIO, to mimic the action seen in leveraged inverse, LABD.

Then after that, is the same chart marked with a potential forecast of where price action may be heading (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, the markup showing potential action should biotech continue its decline.

Zooming in on the last few weeks of action.

The fact price action has bounced from this area of the chart, tells us the trading range is valid; the blue line is being recognized by the market.

Now as shown, we’ve come to a halt.

So, what happens next?

Positioning

As SPBIO ground its way higher (LABD lower) over the past week, the short position, LABD-22-02, was reduced further but not eliminated (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since there’s no more net progress upward and we’re still in an overall downtrend, expectations are for biotech to either stall, or reverse, continuing its trend lower.

As stated previously in this post, the market’s prior congestion was ‘complex’.

So, we’re expecting ‘simple’ this time around; all of which lends support to more downside.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

S&P Rally to Continue ?

May 30, 2022 By in Economic Ninja, I Allegedly, S&P, S&P 500, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, SPY, Wyckoff

Dan … We’ve Bottomed Out !!!

‘Hey Dan, the worst is behind us.’

That’s going to age just as well as our picture at left.

Toilet paper across my face, makes me feel so much more safe.

Within the first ten seconds in the link above, Dan from i-Allegedly gets into it.

He still, at this late stage, has people contacting him to say we’re past the bottom.

He summarizes those comments by saying, ‘We’re far from the bottom of anything.’

Then, as if on cue, ‘Economic Ninja‘ comes online to let us know, another 200,000 egg-laying chickens have just been destroyed in a ‘mysterious fire’ … imagine that.

Almost becoming background noise to all this, the S&P 500, in a sharp rally on Friday that looks like it won’t stop.

S&P 500, Summary

Friday’s action took the S&P back to test resistance on waning volume while at the same time, posting a Wyckoff spring to up-thrust.

That’s it in a nutshell.

Daily SPY, Close

With markup notes

Getting closer-in on the candle chart.

Futures Market

As of this post (3:31 p.m., EST) the futures are higher by a tad at +0.52%. The question is, will that carry-through into the Tuesday open?

Of course, that’s not known. What we do know however, is that price is at established resistance and in up-thrust (potential reversal) condition.

Even if the ultimate direction for the market is higher, normal behavior would suggest a pull-back to gather more fuel for such an attempt.

Otherwise, we’re at the danger point; conditions have been set for downside reversal.

Stay Tuned

Update 6:47 p.m. EST:

S&P futures dropping … now up only +0.17%

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279