Category Archives: Spring-to-Up-Thrust

The Market Set-Up … This Week

October 30, 2022 By in Bonds, David Weis, GLD, GOLD, IYR, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TLT, TSLA, Wyckoff 3 Comments

What To Watch … Bonds, Gold, Real Estate, Tesla

Bonds:

Last Friday, the bond reversal posted a shallow retrace.

We’re looking for upside follow-through at the next session.

Gold:

If gold (GLD) closes below 154.67, on Monday, it will be seven consecutive down months.

Momentum has slowed to a potential inflection point.

Real Estate:

If bonds move higher, real estate may follow. We have potential targets and Fibonacci timeframes.

Tesla:

This update, said to watch if/when TLSA, broke below support.

It did just that during the following week but now, it’s hesitating.

As a result, we have a Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-up.

Now, on to the charts.

Long Bond TLT, 30-minute

We’re drilling down to the 30-minute.

The blue line is Fibonacci 23.6%. Price action (at this point) shows the beginning of a move higher from that level.

Moving decisively higher at the next session, puts the terminating wedge into play, shown here.

If we get a wedge breakout, then we have a measured move target in the vicinity of TLT, 115.00.

Gold (GLD) Weekly Chart

A close below 154.67, on Monday, would put GLD, at seven consecutive down months.

GLD, has never closed lower seven consecutive months; not since inception, on 11/18/04.

Gold remains in a down-channel that’s a Fibonacci 13-Weeks wide.

Last week’s move helped to re-confirm the channel.

That action is itself, a Fibonacci 34-Weeks from the ‘changing of hands‘ high, during week-ending, 3/11/22.

However, momentum of price action has slowed.

If there’s going to be a break to the upside, this would be the place; otherwise, watch for continued GLD downside.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

If bonds continue their upside reversal with rates lower, we can expect real estate IYR, to have some type of ‘dead cat’ bounce.

If so, how long and how high.

An infinite number of scenarios are possible. However, the chart of IYR, shows what to expect for two of those possibilities.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

The uptrend (blue line) has been decisively broken. What has not yet happened, is a ‘test’ of that break.

Shown are potential tests; Week 8 (from 10/14/22, lows), at Fibonacci 38%, and Week 13, at 50%.

Between ‘Week 8’ and ‘Week 13’, is the December Fed meeting … a possible catalyst.

Tesla (TSLA) Weekly

This one seems a bit far-fetched but here it is, anyway.

If bonds rally, the rest of the market may also rally; that could include our chief cook and bottle washer, Tesla.

Price action bounced at support and penetrated it several times before printing outside-up on the weekly (twice).

By definition, it’s a Wyckoff spring set-up.

A spring tends to go straight into an up-thrust; a repeating pattern, shown on the chart at around TSLA, 315.

Set-ups can also fail … so, we’ll be watching this one closely.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Market Set-Up … This Week

October 16, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Basic Materials, Bonds, David Weis, DJUSBM, Gold & Silver, IYM, IYR, J.P. Morgan, LABD, LABD-22-08, Michael Cowan, Positions, SLV, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Survival Lilly, TLT, TMF, TSLA, Van Metre, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 4 Comments

What To Watch

First off, it’s nice to know, traders at J.P. Morgan, don’t have clue as what to do.

They say it themselves; Not One Person

On top of that, I’m supposed to pay money reading about how clueless they are. 🙂

No thanks. Let’s see if we can do better than the average ‘investment firm’.

Before we get started, a reminder; as Michael Cowen says:

‘It’s the bear market that reveals those who really understand’, not the bull market ‘geniuses‘.

With that, let’s get into it; first up, is silver.

Silver: Wyckoff Analysis Results

The downside reversal was identified to the day.

Adding to that post, Europeans could not only be freezing or starving this winter, but also subject to radiation poisoning.

Surely, they’re all thinking that ‘stack’ of silver is going to save them.

Silver (along with gold) remain trending lower.

Silver (SLV) is currently at support levels; therefore, some upward action (staying below SLV: 18.5) is normal behavior.

Bonds: Are They Ready?

Hold your nose … bonds could be setting up for a rally.

As Steven Van Metre reports here, the Fed ‘shenanigan’ meter is pegged.

Bonds, TLT Weekly

Note, the bullish TLT, set-up is not confirmed until MACD ticks higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Also note the repeating pattern of ‘spring to up-thrust‘.

Last up, biotech

Biotech SPBIO, Hourly (Inverted)

We’re going to use the chart from yesterday’s post to set the stage for getting closer-in.

This past Friday’s early morning ‘spike’ is barely visible; the 30-minute (inverted) chart below, has more detail.

SPBIO, 30-minute (Inverted)

Price action rejected the lower levels (higher on SPBIO) and pulled away throughout the session. That ‘pulling away’ continued on, all the way into the close.

That’s a clue there may be follow-through at the next session.

If the early session opens ‘gap-higher’ (SPBIO, lower), into the resistance area (four magenta arrows, hourly chart), it would be the fourth time pressuring at this area; markets rarely hold a fourth attempt.

Summary

Of course, other markets are being watched like real estate (IYR), Tesla (TSLA), and even Basic Materials (DJUSBM), a potential sleeper for significant downside.

Updates are planned if/when low risk shows up.

Positions: Current Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

The following is the positioning of my firm’s main (largest) account.

LABD-22-08:

LABD Entry @ 25.1278, 24.735, 26.025, 22.99, 22.29***, Stop is @ LABD 21.23***

***, Indicates change

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … Sold Out !

October 10, 2022 By in Dollar, Gold & Silver, Kitco, SD Buiilion, Silver Collapse, SLV, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Uneducated Economist, Wyckoff

… And The Bulls Are Trapped

How is it possible to have silver stocks sold out here and here, yet silver bears have trapped the bulls.

As we’ll show below, this morning’s action in SLV, has confirmed the reversal; a Wyckoff up-thrust, pointing silver’s probability to lower levels.

For starters, let’s recap on how this (trading) game is played.

That is, the public i.e., the masses, need to be led to and fro so they are continuously on the wrong side of the trade.

That’s it.

So it is with precious metals and specifically silver.

The media came out recently, effectively telling everyone ‘Now is the time to buy gold’.

Where were these guys in 2001, when gold bottomed around $271/oz.

No, they show up at the end of the move … not the start.

Public Buys Hype, Not Facts

So the public has bought into the hype and run the silver coffers dry. Everyone excepts an immediate currency collapse and certainly anything can happen.

However, as Undedicated Economist points out, the dollar strength (first identified in this post) can last for years.

The original (bullish reversal) analysis is now supported by the facts; it’s been nearly two-years since that post and the dollar (UUP) is still headed higher.

So, let’s find out where silver is likely to go. For that, we go to the weekly chart.

Silver SLV, Weekly

The set-up, already posted; Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

It’s a repeating pattern found across the markets.

Price action gets itself into a spring condition by penetrating support which subsequently sets up the reversal; the up-thrust.

Next, we’ll use the Fibonacci Projection Tool, showing likely areas for downside destination.

A full 1 : 1 projection gets us right back to where we started the whole ‘short-squeeze’.

If SLV, gets back down to the 10.50 – 11.0, level, one can only imagine what type of hype will be in vogue.

However, at those levels, it’s reasonable to expect the local bullion dealer will be begging for sales … they might even offer their product at, or near, spot. 🙂

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

After The Close …

October 5, 2022 By in Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-07, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, zsl, ZSL-22-01 1 Comment

The Tape Is Always Right

Once again, stopped-out of the biotech short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Call it bad timing, incorrect analysis or whatever. Every opportunity for SPBIO, to go lower is being thwarted … so, no more for now.

On the flip side, the potential collapse in silver has been discussed over the past few weeks, here, here, here and here.

Looking at the chart below, not only do we have a Wyckoff Up-Thrust, but unless it’s negated by subsequent price action, we’ve got an ‘island gap reversal’ as well.

Prices can’t be sustained at yesterday’s higher level.

Silver SLV, Daily

As previously discussed, very late in the session as SLV, price action rose higher, reducing the risk, a short was entered via Leveraged Inverse Fund ZSL @ 28.08 (not advice, not a recommendation).

The trade is identified as ZSL-22-01.

An obvious hard-stop would be yesterday’s high in SLV, or the corresponding low in ZSL @ 26.55.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Silver Set-Up

October 5, 2022 By in Neil McCoy-Ward, Silver Collapse, SLV, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Texas Freeze, zsl 4 Comments

Repeating: Spring-To-Up-Thrust

Which comes first: Freezing and starving to death, or currency collapse?

Is that a hyperbolic statement?

Short answer, is no.

Here are at least two boots-on-the-ground sources that paint an incredibly bleak picture of what is to come in just weeks for Europe.

Links are here and here.

As with the Texas Freeze, the last thing on anybody’s mind was their “stack” of silver.

The humanitarian crisis is happening now, if not soon. Currency collapse may be months if not years away.

Which brings us to the precious metals and specifically silver, SLV.

The past few trading sessions have formed a repeating set-up: Spring-To-Up-Thrust.

Silver SLV, Daily

Note, the Pre-Market activity is far below yesterday’s high; the bulls may be trapped.

Typically the first order of business is an attempt to close the gap. If that happens, price action is then narrowing the risk on a short entry (not advice, not a recommendation).

One typical trading vehicle for shorting silver (other than the futures market) is 2X Inverse Fund ZSL.

Summary

The bulls think it’s finally the launch they have been waiting for … all these years.

It could be … anything can happen.

However, that does not take away from the fact we’ve got a trade set-up that may offer a low-risk short entry (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Biotech Breakdown …

September 25, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-05, Positions, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TDA-LABD-22-02

Massive Short Volume, Proves Correct

Short-side volume was the key.

The August 13th, update linked here, identified unprecedented volume posting on the short side.

It’s also interesting to note in the very same report, there’s a link to ‘bears capitulate’.

If there was actually some value to the financial press, this would be it; help provide contrary indicators.

So, here we are just over a month later and biotech SPBIO, appears to be in free fall.

Biotech SPBIO ($SPSIBI), Weekly Close

The prior update had this so say about positioning (not advice, not a recommendation):

“Figuratively speaking, everything’s been dropped to focus exclusively on this sector. It’s obvious, what’s going on at this juncture is unprecedented.”

From that August 13th update, the main account for my firm has increased the size of its short position (LABD-22-05), by approximately 34% (not advice, not a recommendation).

Summary

Unprecedented short-volume, points expectations to some kind of unprecedented bad news.

When the market goes south, bad news comes out.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

We’ve Seen This Movie, Before

September 8, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, 1907, 1929, 1974, 1987, 2000 - 2001, 2007 - 2008, 2022, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-05, Positions, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TDA-LABD-22-02

1907, 1929, 1974, 1987, 2000, 2007, … and Now

As Scott Walters has said:

‘It’s different this time.

It’s Worse!‘

That ‘worse’ part includes the adverse moves in the market.

This time around, as opposed to ’07 – ’08, they really do seem to be worse.

Which, brings us to biotech SPBIO.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

Just to remind ourselves where biotech is at the moment, we have the un-marked weekly chart.

This sector’s the only one (miners excluded) that’s trading below the 50-Week and 200 Week Moving Averages with a 50-wk cross to the downside.

On a weekly basis, we’re in a major long-term downtrend that looks to have finished its upside correction.

Getting closer-in on the hourly chart we have the following.

SPBIO, Hourly

What do you see?

Here’s the marked-up version.

Over and again; a fractal set-up called ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust‘.

The zoom chart below shows that price action appears to be struggling at the resistance area (black line).

Danger Point

At this juncture we’re at The Danger Point®

Enough of a push higher and SPBIO, could continue on upward, overcoming significant technical and fundamental barriers.

However, since we’re trending lower in the longer timeframes, probabilities suggest that downtrend may be ready (or near ready) to re-assert itself.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech’s, Jaw-Dropping Volume

August 13, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, David Weis, LABD, LABD-22-05, Positions, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TDA-LABD-22-02, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Bears Capitulate

According to this, just out on ZeroHedge, that’s what’s happened.

As we’ll see below, there’s certainly something unprecedented going on, specifically in biotech.

The prior update made the argument, biotech SPBIO, has a unique distinction that’s showing up on the leveraged inverse fund LABD, shorting the sector.

For illustration purposes, we’re going to do a little ‘trick’.

The weekly close of SPBIO, is shown below.

This index does not provide volume but we’re going to ‘fix’ that by putting in the lower panel, weekly volume for leveraged inverse fund LABD.

It’s clear, as SPBIO reached all-time highs and reversed, short activity via LABD picked up significantly.

However, the past several weeks tells us from a Wyckoff perspective, something major could be about to happen.

As SPBIO, has moved counter-trend higher, activity going short (via LABD) has gone off the scale.

Spring-To-Up-Thrust

If the unprecedented volume activity weren’t enough to draw attention, we also have a repeating set-up that’s well, repeating; Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

With the idea originally obtained from the late Daivd Weis, later confirmed time and again, it’s a unique (high probability) characteristic of market behavior.

That’s where we are now.

SPBIO: Up Close & Technical

It may be hard to see in the above chart.

The next one, moves closer-in.

The upward advance of SPBIO slowed dramatically last week, closing up just +1.68%, for the week.

Contrast that move with the week prior at +13.83%, and the slowdown is evident.

All Hands, On Deck

Figuratively speaking, everything’s been dropped to focus exclusively on this sector. It’s obvious, what’s going on at this juncture is unprecedented.

That goes for the rest of the markets as well.

However, this sector alone, is telling us to ‘look here’; potentially setting up for a major reversal.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

S&P Rally to Continue ?

May 30, 2022 By in Economic Ninja, I Allegedly, S&P, S&P 500, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, SPY, Wyckoff

Dan … We’ve Bottomed Out !!!

‘Hey Dan, the worst is behind us.’

That’s going to age just as well as our picture at left.

Toilet paper across my face, makes me feel so much more safe.

Within the first ten seconds in the link above, Dan from i-Allegedly gets into it.

He still, at this late stage, has people contacting him to say we’re past the bottom.

He summarizes those comments by saying, ‘We’re far from the bottom of anything.’

Then, as if on cue, ‘Economic Ninja‘ comes online to let us know, another 200,000 egg-laying chickens have just been destroyed in a ‘mysterious fire’ … imagine that.

Almost becoming background noise to all this, the S&P 500, in a sharp rally on Friday that looks like it won’t stop.

S&P 500, Summary

Friday’s action took the S&P back to test resistance on waning volume while at the same time, posting a Wyckoff spring to up-thrust.

That’s it in a nutshell.

Daily SPY, Close

With markup notes

Getting closer-in on the candle chart.

Futures Market

As of this post (3:31 p.m., EST) the futures are higher by a tad at +0.52%. The question is, will that carry-through into the Tuesday open?

Of course, that’s not known. What we do know however, is that price is at established resistance and in up-thrust (potential reversal) condition.

Even if the ultimate direction for the market is higher, normal behavior would suggest a pull-back to gather more fuel for such an attempt.

Otherwise, we’re at the danger point; conditions have been set for downside reversal.

Stay Tuned

Update 6:47 p.m. EST:

S&P futures dropping … now up only +0.17%

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Set To Rally

May 1, 2022 By in GLD, Gold & Silver, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 1 Comment

GLD, In Spring Position

It’s about an hour before the Sunday futures open and gold (GLD), is in spring position; set to move higher.

The daily chart of GLD below, shows the action for the past three years. The chart following gets closer in to identify the set-up.

Gold (GLD), Daily Chart

Closer in with the spring set-up marked.

We know that empirically, if a spring set-up is viable and in-effect, it has a tendency to go straight into an up-thrust.

The chart below locates a potential up-thrust zone should the price action launch into a spring.

If gold breaks to the upside, be prepared for another round of bull mania hysteria … all the while, the structure of the overall markets continues to fall-away.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279