Category Archives: ZeroHedge

Front Running The News

January 17, 2022 By in Corn, Dollar, Food Supply, Genesis 41, ice-age-farmer, Inflation, Speck-Effect, Stew Peters, The Speck, Vernon Coleman, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

‘Out In Front, By A Year’

A pattern begins to emerge.

That is, the strategies and research presented on this site are leading actual news events by about twelve months.

Example No. 1: The Dollar Rally

The dollar rally potential (when first recognized) was presented in this post over a year ago.

Since then, about 10 – 11 months later, ZeroHedge picked it up only after it had become a full-blown reversal.

The dollar has continued to rally and is currently (after breaking support), in Wyckoff ‘spring position’.

Example No. 2: The Food Supply & ‘Inflation’

One of the earliest posts discussing the intentional destruction of the food supply, is linked here.

From that update, we had:

“The entire U.S. agricultural food supply infrastructure is being systematically dismantled.”

Those statements looked hyperbolic at the time.

Obviously, at this point, it’s becoming common knowledge; at least for anyone that’s listening.

Example No. 3: The ‘Speck Effect’

In what may have seemed like a brutal rant, has now become fact.

This rendition of ‘The Night Before Christmas’, posted over a year ago, had no links to support the intuitive assessment of what was to come.

That post has now been updated with the facts.

Warning Note:

Obviously, not everyone injected, is a coward.

Children are rightly terrified. Let’s be realistic.

However, the idiot parents and enabling Doctors and Pharmacists are (eventually) likely, as Dr. Vernon Coleman puts it, to be arrested and tried/convicted for either murder or attempted murder.

Summary

There are other research examples like gold and the gold miners but the three above, cover the picture fairly well.

From the data presented, it’s apparent at least two things are happening simultaneously.

No. 1: Strategic Analysis

World, market, and local (within the U.S.) events are researched and analyzed for potential impact.

No. 2: Market (Wyckoff) Analysis

Those events from No.1, are then linked to market action if any. Potential opportunities are identified.

The Path Forward:

This update is a very brief description of the site’s go-forward objectives.

What’s here, is a long-term (documented) track record of situational awareness; coupled with reading price action which in turn, is used as a case for market positioning.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Natives … Getting Restless

December 19, 2021 By in Dr. Elder, DUST, DUST-21-01, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Latest Reversal … Exposes The ‘Experts’

‘When the tide goes out, that’s when you find out who’s been swimming naked.’

No fan, and no endorsement of Buffett but the quote is applicable.

If yesterday’s Newmont analysis holds, meaning, it’s the last stand before another leg-lower, gold bulls might start acting irrationally.

Is it even possible to be more irrational?

Remember their manic prediction of $3,000/oz, gold in months, not years?

Barring a major reversal, the tide’s going out.

From the comments section of this ZeroHedge article, some in the herd are figuring it out as well.

As one of them says … ‘another year to wait before the Great Pumpkin’ (i.e., gold moving higher).

As this post is created, comments continue to pour-in.

Gold bulls are frustrated, confused, pontificating, crypto loving/hating, central bank blaming, it’s all there.

Thus far, there’s not one comment on what price action is actually doing.

Public Service Announcement

This whole business with the financial media and its attendant hucksters (recent examples, here and here) is actually a fantastic public service.

For anyone who’s still able to think (an act of rebellion in itself), it’s clear, or should be, if you’re on TV, or the mainstream media, you’re a shill until proven otherwise.

The good part?

All of this media, podcast, carpetbagging and corruption, plays right into the hand of Wyckoff analysis.

Wyckoff focused on what is … not what should be.

Even back in the early 1930s, he was adamant about ignoring the financial press. ‘You’ll never be successful’, he said if you listen to the hype.

Mixed Messages

On cue to support that statement, is Dan, from i-Allegedly; he reports ‘we’re getting mixed messages‘ in the economy.

Proving the point.

The (Trade) Plan Forward

With the caveat, anything can happen; gold could rally in a couple hours when the futures open, the short via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation), is as follows:

  1. The Set-Up: Complete
  2. The ‘test’ or ‘gut-check’: Complete
  3. The first ‘correction’: On-going
  4. Continuation or Failure
    1. Trend identification
    2. Potential channel(s)
  5. Exit process
    1. Scale out
    2. Full exit
  6. Post trade evaluation

What’s In A Name ?

Even if the trade fails at the next session, it would still provide valuable information.

With that in mind, no matter what happens it’s likely to be referenced in the future; so, it needs a name (or number).

Taking a cue from prior engineering work (creating numbering schemes), the current trade will be identified now, and in future posts, as: DUST-21-01.

Seems straightforward.

The ‘First’ Correction

No. 3, above is titled ‘The first correction’.

This labeling is borrowed from a trade discussed by William Doane, in Dr. Elder’s book: Entries & Exits.

Price action permitting, we’ll discuss how this first correction may be a brief one as opposed to a drawn-out choppy affair.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Bulls … Hit In The Head

December 15, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold Miners, UUP, Van Metre, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Not Waiting Around For The Fed

It’s been an abusive relationship for the gold bulls.

Following the corporate media (always a mistake) and YouTuber’s alike (sometimes a mistake), only to find out it’s all been a lie.

Gold (GLD), looks like it’s solidifying its breakaway gap (chart below) and simultaneously confirming a potential trading channel.

In what may be related news, ZeroHedge reports some of the internet is down … again.

Note the websites having problems involve food, payroll services and of course, entertainment.

Separately, the dollar (UUP) just made a new weekly high as its rally continues. In Steven Van Metre’s Sunday Night update (time stamp: 18:01), if the dollar breaks higher above UUP 26 or 27, then “… all the wheels come off ….”

Which brings us to the gold market.

Gold (GLD), Weekly Chart

The chart reviews the recent up-thrust (reversal) that was accompanied by hysterical … bordering on unhinged insane press coverage of an imminent break higher.

Obviously, that didn’t happen.

Zoom version

In addition to the reversal and breakaway gap, there could be a trading channel as well.

That’s a good thing for the bears as it gives a more clear exit area … negation (or break) of that channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Zoom version

Of course, anything can happen. The Fed announcement is about two hours away.

However, it looks like gold and miners alike, are not waiting around … potentially beginning their decline in earnest.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … Test & Reverse

December 7, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Van Metre, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Any Buying Support Left ?

Not if you look at the volume profile.

Steven Van Metre, in his Sunday Night Charts (time stamp 12:20), shows the precarious situation of GDX.

There’re about 90-minutes left to go in this session.

It looks like GDX is/has tested underside resistance and down-trend simultaneously. For GDX to break higher, it would have to get through that resistance.

As always, anything can happen but we need to remind ourselves, the gold bulls are already trapped … having bought at the mid-November breakout.

If still holding, they’re now deep in the red.

Under such conditions, each down move serves to set the (bear) hook even more.

If we use this just released article from ZeroHedge, we’re nowhere near any kind of capitulation and upside reversal.

Senior Miners, GDX

The un-marked daily chart

And now …

With zoom

We’re at a confluence of resistance; the downtrend and the underside of price action.

Let’s keep in mind, the overall markets (S&P, Dow, Nasdaq) are still oscillating around their all-time highs. Volatility has increased as the trend appears to be changing.

Gold and the miners are nowhere near all-time highs.

A century ago, Wyckoff showed how to spot markets that would decline the fastest and farthest under bear market conditions (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s not the high-flyer we’re looking for … no, it’s the laggard.

That’s the one to pick.

It’s already weak and once the buoyancy of the general market evaporates, the bottom may fall out.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

… And, More Gold Bulls …

November 19, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions, ZeroHedge

Nascent GDX Reversal, Gathering Steam

Packed in like sardines, the gold bulls just keep on coming.

Once again, the latest from ZeroHedge:

Von Greyerz: Gold-O-Mania Is Coming!

The author is “convinced” gold is going to end the year higher than it is now.

Well, it could.

Does that mean the miners are going to end higher?

Gold Miners, GDX:

A marked up chart of leveraged inverse fund DUST (-2X GDX), is below.

Chart is on the 4-Hour scale:

We can see a potential trend.

When that area is expanded with contact points (below), it becomes even more convincing.

The actual metal, gold, may indeed rise over the coming months.

However, today, GLD is retracing to support. What happens now, is the key.

Bounce and continue (higher), or bounce and fail.

Positioning:

The short position via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation) was opened at the danger point when the direction of price action was unknown.

From the post on November 10th:

“As of this morning, we’re already positioned short this sector via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation).”

DUST has since moved higher (GDX, lower) and the trade is well in the green.

That means one can watch the battle take place at support for GLD, GDX and resistance for DUST from a (somewhat relaxed) position of profit.

Summary:

The final outcome of this short-trade is of course, unknown.

However, one of the objectives of these posts is to document the level of research and preparation involved for a ‘position’ trade.

Going short has been two months in the making.

From the initial ‘GLD Target‘ post to now, we’ve seen manipulation of GLD, GDX price action; making it look like a breakout was imminent.

That action was coupled with non-stop financial press herding of the easily influenced to the bull side.

How can it not be coordinated? Remember this post?

So, it looks like the bull trap has been set.

This trade could still fall apart for some unknown reason.

If it looks like the bulls are somehow re-gaining control, it will show up in the price action and we’ll exit accordingly (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Bulls Continue On

November 18, 2021 By in DUST, Ed Seykota, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, Gold Miners, Positions, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Even As The Miners Reverse

After attempting to breakout higher over the past six trading sessions, the miners are posting signs of a nascent reversal.

Even so, the bull calls continue.

The latest round includes two more articles from ZeroHedge:

Gold Breakout Imminent !

The first part describes some technical details that are all true … after that, well, you decide.

Turns out, gold is going to skyrocket because of Russia !

I suppose, anything can happen.

We get fundamentals and anecdotal data as the reasoning for a Russia driven up-side breakout.

The problem with fundamentals is, they don’t work.

They never have worked.

Wyckoff discovered this a century ago when he said (from his autobiography) that ‘stocks move based on a power of their own. That power, has nothing to do with fundamentals.’

Trading genius Ed Seykota repeated that truth during his interview for ‘Market Wizards’.

He called them ‘funny mentals’ and went on to say he nearly, if not always lost money using them.

Gold shhh …

This article’s so good that I have to pay to read it.

From reading the shaded area, we can infer a similar (bullish) discussion to the first link above.

Sorry, not interested.

Summary

This time really could be different. Gold could launch into a sustained upward breakout.

However, the charts (GDX, GDXJ) at this juncture, are saying ‘not yet’.

Maintaining short (not advice, not a recommendation) via DUST … which is now in the green.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tech Talk, Gold & Gold Miners

November 17, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, Gold Miners, Positions, The Speck, ZeroHedge

Trend & Channel

Who’s taking the bull side on gold?

If we use the just released ZeroHedge articles listed below, the inference is the average investor’s on the bull side:

Investors overweight in stocks

Gold probes multi-month highs

Futures flat amid inflation jitters

Especially notable in the ‘Gold probes’ article is the statement, gold pushed above ‘key price resistance’.

That key resistance was first identified in this post as the target for potential major reversal.

This Is Now

So, here we are.

Gold (GLD) and the miners, GDX, GDXJ, have pushed above resistance levels. The bull/bear fight is on.

At this point, it’s not known who’s ultimately in control.

A retrace to breakout support for gold (GLD, GDX, GDXJ) is normal under either circumstance … bullish or bearish.

What happens at that support is the deciding factor. A bounce and continuation upward, the bulls are in charge.

A bounce, then failure, nods it to the bears.

That’s why we’re at The Danger Point.

It’s the location where price action hesitates. It’s unsure and can go either way.

The weekly chart (below) of GDX, is marked up with a modest sloping down-channel … declining approximately -26%, annualized:

From left to right, that right side contact’s been in the making for over a year.

Even worse (for the bulls) is the next chart:

Note the right side channel is an estimate and has not been confirmed with additional contact points.

We’ll zoom in on the possible new channel:

Price action made several contacts with the grey centerline and the entire channel structure looks symmetrical.

‘Transitory’ & The Elephant

The reason (supply chain) inflation may be transitory is that demand is going to collapse.

It’s already happening.

Now, that news is just starting to hit the mainstream.

They pretend like they’re not sure what’s it’s all about. So, let’s help them out with some facts.

Embedded within the article at this link, is an actual list of ‘strange anomalies’ that are occurring amongst the most athletically conditioned in the world.

If it’s happening with the athletes, it’s happening in the rest of the population.

Summary:

Early this session, Gold (GLD) and the miners, GDX, GDXJ have, or are testing their highs with inverse funds DUST and JDST testing the lows.

If this is a major transition from up to down for gold and the miners, this type of back and forth is normal.

Positions:

We’re still at the danger point but action can’t stay at these levels for too long. If it does, that would imply the bulls are gaining control and going to move the market to much higher levels.

Obviously, since we’re short (not advice, not a recommendation) via DUST, we’re on the other side of the gold bull trade.

A reasonable stop for DUST would be at, near, or just below yesterday’s low of 16.72 (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this post, with DUST currently trading at DUST, 17.11, my firm’s position is down a modest – 1.82%.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bears Throw In The Towel

November 16, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GOLD, Gold Miners, TSLA, ZeroHedge

A Tale Of Two Bears

Back in the day during the dot-com boom, fund managers were throwing in the towel (‘value’ fund managers, if memory serves) because the markets as they said, “did not make sense anymore”.

Valuations were insane and managers with decades of experience decided the time had come to exit for good.

Of course, it was a contrarian indicator. Those lofty valuations and prices were at or near their peak.

It was not long after when the market cracked. There was a rebound of sorts but the stage was set for a long bear market.

History Repeating?

This is a brief update to document two bear managers that are quitting in separate ways.

One is shutting down his fund entirely. More information linked here.

The other has exited short positions which included getting out of Tesla (TSLA) just before it rolled over.

These types of high-profile events usually happen at or near a significant top.

If the overall markets continue to grind higher, there may be similar retirements and/or fund closures.

Gold (GLD) Update

Before a market can reverse to the downside, it has to stop going up.

Sounds obvious but with the bullish hysteria on gold, coupled with non-stop inflation talk, it may take a while for the bulls to exhaust themselves.

We’re still at the danger point for GLD as well as the miners GDX, GDXJ.

Items of note for the session:

GDX had a double top (same high as Friday) and the inverse fund DUST posted + 0.01, above its own Friday low.

It could mean we’re at the extreme(s) with no more directional thrust or just a pause before continuing with the existing trend.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Random Notes

November 14, 2021 By in 2010 Flash Crash, American Greed, Prechter, Random Notes, Usual Suspects, ZeroHedge

The Usual Suspects For The Week

No. 1

Institutional Destruction

The short video clip by Mark Dice, linked here, shows how former successful and possibly even meaningful (on a rare occasion) movie productions/franchises are being systematically destroyed.

This phenomenon is not just Hollywood but nationwide.

To be specific, the same type of destruction is occurring in the ‘wealth management’ industry.

One of the latest salvos is this ‘initiative’ to make that industry more diverse.

The comments section talks about the ‘talent going elsewhere’ to start their own business.

That may be true but remember, ‘Fiduciary Responsibility’ requirements make sure the person with the least amount of knowledge is in control … the client.

Which brings us to the next bullet item.

No. 2

The ‘Average Investor’

Years ago, somewhere around the early 1990s, Tony Robbins interviewed Robert Prechter Jr.

One of the questions Robbins asked was this:

‘What should the average investor do?’

Prechter’s response was timeless. He said:

‘Quit being the average investor’

Absolutely brutal but true.

It was a polite way of saying to get busy; stop being the ignorant, lazy, average American.

Study and learn the markets. That way you won’t be subject to the corruption and villainy that permeates the financial services industry.

Don’t think that statement’s true?

Just watch a couple of episodes of “American Greed” and see how many involve financial scams that fleece an unsuspecting investment public.

In the above link, our ‘professional’ positions short in a biotech company, Orexigen Therapeutics.

If there’s one thing an aspiring market trader speculator learns at the start, it’s never, never, never go short on biotech (at least the individual equity).

Anything can happen … and it did.

No. 3

Flash Crash Ready

This just out from ZeroHedge; Is another Flash-Crash in the cards?

First off, let’s review what a flash crash looks like.

Link to the 2010, crash.

“Paper” = Big institutional selling

’79s are trading … all the way down !!! ‘

Even way back in my SeekingAlpha days, I proposed the next major market hit would be like nothing else.

Possibly a 20% – 50%, drop overnight or something similar.

Is it not better to plan, analyze and position (not advice, not a recommendation) with a Black Swan event in mind or just go merrily along thinking you’re as close to the entry door as the exit?

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Stacking’ … Strategic Error ?

October 12, 2021 By in Genesis 41, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, ZeroHedge 4 Comments

Late Session

How many of our YouTube ‘stackers’ are chess players?

A quick check of three popular (randomly picked) ‘stacking’ YouTubers, has one showing his intro with a pile of silver being stacked under the floor.

The other has ‘trinkets’ on her desk and supposed collectibles behind her.

The other has gone as far to say, the reason gold and silver are not going higher, is because of the public itself.

No overt reference to chess or any reference to chess play as a means of addressing market conditions.

They may indeed have knowledge but they’re not showing it as a matter of course.

If memory serves, one of Richard Denis’ interview questions to his potential ‘Turtle’ trader(s) was whether he (she) played chess.

Take look at the host site’s business logo (Three Ten Trading, LLC) and we’ll leave the discussion there.

It’s the author’s opinion, the ‘stacker’ sites are in the business of getting more business; not analyzing the markets with any high level of thought or seriousness.

However, they might have a purpose.

It’s possible, they fulfill the ‘bread and circuses’ void that’s the hallmark of an empire’s collapse; which brings us to the situation at hand.

This ‘collapse’ we’re in, is a process not an event.

As we continue on, it’s becoming clear that single-mindedly stockpiling inedible metal in hopes of surviving what’s here now, and what’s coming, is a major (if not potentially fatal) blunder.

The players on this global chess board are making their moves and then counter moves.

Case in point is Southwest Airlines cancellations and shutdown.

Southwest Airlines:

The company has made its move.

The employees countered with their move. Perhaps even more importantly, they did it with bravery.

It’s likely, a large part of them, if not all (who are not showing up for work) will eventually be terminated.

It’s also reasonable to think when they made their move, they understood full well, the potential (termination) outcome.

Economic Shutdown:

As ZeroHedge reports, what if more corporations experience similar (employee walk-out) events?

What if it’s a mass exodus?

Is anybody really ready to walk or ride their bike … even a horse, to work because there’s no fuel at the gas station?

If there’s no fuel, there are no deliveries of any kind.

A check of the Home Depot, in this area has it relatively stocked in the garden section.

However, from a personal standpoint, after checking the local Tractor Supply, there’s no Jobe’s (organic) fertilizer to be found at either site (save the one torn bag at Home Depot).

The shelves are empty … for that item at least.

Mass Psychological Shift

Remember our example of herd behavior? That it can turn on a dime; doing it instantly across thousands of miles?

Storable food is running low. What about seeds and fertilizer?

Genesis 41

What happens when the public realizes all-at-once, it’s the food supply that’s not ever (in quantity) coming back?

Suppose they collectively decide (rightly or wrongly), the ‘stackers’ are just another herd of followers.

That it was all yet another lie; a diversion away from the real problem.

Silver and gold are great if you already have it.

However, this site’s sticking to the Biblical, Genesis 41, world view.

That is, corn and grain (food) come first. Then, gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

Remember, Joseph was paid first (for grain) with money (i.e., the silver stack).

When the money was exhausted, livestock was used.

When that ran out, the people sold themselves into slavery to obtain food.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.