Category Archives: ZeroHedge

The Usual Suspects

June 16, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Food Supply, Genesis 41, Interest Rates, James Grant, The Speck, Usual Suspects, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Can It Get Any More Stupid?

It’s been a while since rounding up The Usual Suspects.

However, like last time, the stupidity, misdirection, misinformation, outright falsehoods, overall grift and schtick, has got to the point where an update is needed.

We’ll start off by repeating No. 1 from the prior ‘suspects’ as it encompasses the whole genre of ‘non-thought’ by the public and financial press alike; readers of this post excepted, of course. 🙂

No 1. There (still) is no Fed Pivot. Seriously, have rates really, actually been lowered? Everyone has a huge case of ‘normalcy bias’. i.e., what the Fed did last time will happen this time.

The 40-year bond bull market from the ’80s, ended in 2020. We’re in a different paradigm now.

We’ll add in this updated post, James Grant, of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer.

He second’s the motion: The 40-year bond bull market, is over. Period.

No 2. It has always been about the food supply.

Food is boring and gets no ‘clicks’ on my grifting ‘silver, gold stacking’ website or YouTube, so I ignore it.

After all, my business, is to get more business.

Just a reminder, if anyone really wants (inedible) gold or silver (cheap), this might be a way to get it.

No 3. The market has ‘thinned out’ to an incredible degree.

Now, instead of The Mag 7, there are only three and one of them, is a washed-up gaming stock.

How apropos, when considering the opening paragraphs about the overall public and financial press.

No 4. Is Artificial Intelligence just another lie?

Looks like according to this, it can’t be trusted. Who could have guessed?

I’m shocked! Shocked!

No 5. Ruh-Roh Scooby, fake meat’s bad for your health.

Didn’t see that one coming.

No 6. Well, there could be a new ‘scarient‘ in the works.

However, looking at price action of the biotech sector, far below its all-time highs, the market itself, is saying ‘No, not this time.’

No 7. Could the S&P make it to 6,300?

After all, it’s all about the numbers, right?

The S&P bottomed at 666.67 on 3/9/09.

Summary

If there ever was a time as Wyckoff said, to ‘completely ignore the financial press’, this may be that time.

He also stated, ‘reading price action is hard, taking literally decades and many losses to master’, a skill which is never really complete.

As the ‘About‘ section states, this site is one leader’s perspective on that action; presenting it, in a strategically cognizant form.

As far as is known, no other site is doing the same.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Deep ‘Kimchi’ Update … Newmont

May 11, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Michael Bordenaro, NEM, SBUX, Speck-Effect, The Speck, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Setting Up For ‘Breakout’ or, ‘Digging-In’ …?

Gold’s near all-time highs, silver’s rebounded, testing recent highs; yet Newmont’s at a paltry 23.6%, retrace.

So, you tell me. What’s likely to happen to Newmont, if gold or silver head back lower, even just a little bit?

That dude in the picture, needs to keep on diggin’. 🙂

Wyckoff, In-The-Know

Years ago, Wyckoff told us not to pay any attention to the financial press, the local circus.

However, that does not mean he didn’t know what was going on. He did, and sometimes down to the penny.

We don’t know for sure what’s (really) happening with Newmont and the mining sector but among other things, it might have something to do with this, this, and this.

Even so, price action’s the truth; let’s look at our chief cook and bottle washer’s progress since the last update.

Newmont Mining NEM, Weekly

The chart has expanded the Force Index (middle panel) for better clarity.

Going back to the last update, it had this to say:

“A reasonable expectation is NEM, retraces, testing the wide bar and volume before continuing to the downside or moving back higher to a breakout.”

Price action has done exactly that. It came down to test the wide (4/25/24) bar and then back up to resistance, where we are now.

The only thing missing at this point, is the breakout or reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Show Me, The Money

Anyone with two Latte’s rubbing together, knows the economy may (already) be in full-blown collapse.

Anecdotal (and factual) evidence of that can be found here, here and here.

Adding, Nemont itself is not doing well as evidenced by this recent (February) article about dividend cuts, asset sales.

Seems like everybody’s looking around for cash.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Breakdown … Is This It?

April 16, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Dr. Elder, Ed Dowd, Greg Hunter, LABD, SPBIO, UNG, USO, XBI, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

‘Respecting’ Fibonacci … So Far

Before we get started, biotech may have decisively turned the corner to the downside with this, just out … maybe.

‘Zero Respect For Thieves’

Before we get started, with getting started, a brief mention on thievery.

Years ago, Dr. Elder stated he had ‘zero respect for thieves’; those who had stolen his book tile, ‘Trading For A Living’, in various forms.

When you have limited skills and even less insight, thievery is the only way to go … that is, until you’re found-out.

Turns out, the analysis of silver SLV, posted on this site (here and here) nearly two weeks ago, specifically the presence of SLV volume ‘spikes’ at inflection points, may have been ‘lifted’ without citation by a prominent YouTuber (who will not be named … yet).

It may have been just a coincidence. If so, all is well. However, a ‘second time’, not so much. So, let’s all play ‘nice’ shall we? 🙂

Now, on to biotech.

Biotech, XBI, Daily

This update is being released just before the open. It looks like XBI, is about gap-lower.

We see in the chart, XBI, is respecting the Fibonacci projections.

As with the recent oil market analysis and USO, (here and here) we let the market decide what areas are important.

In the case of XBI, and unless significant demand comes in, lower prices appear to be the most probable direction (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas, Goes Negative

April 13, 2024 By in Natural Gas, Oil, Oil & Gas, UNG, USO, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 3 Comments

… At Least, In Texas

Storage facilities in Texas are paying to have someone take excess Nat-gas.

As this link says, the ‘reason’ for negative Nat-gas, is high oil prices prompt drillers to increase oil production, along with (by-product) Nat-gas, driving down the price.

We’ll cover Nat-gas (UNG) in a separate update which by the way, on Friday, posted another Wyckoff spring set-up.

The question du jour is, ‘does oil go higher from here?‘

If oil is going higher (or likely to go), then Nat-gas may be pressured downward for longer.

International Chaos

The amount of ‘pontificating’ from the media on what oil is, or is not going to do, is mind-numbing.

Wyckoff himself said, we’re attempting to find out ‘the next probable direction’ for the market, which of course, can never be known for sure.

With that, let’s go to the truth of the matter, the chart.

Oil Tracking Fund, USO, Weekly

Shown on the chart, is a Fibonacci projection from the lows of March 2023, to the first wave high of April ’23, then back down to the wave low, in May ’23.

It might be hard to see, so the first waves are highlighted with green dashed lines.

At this point, instead of asking the question ‘where’s oil going?’, a better question may be, ‘is the chart of USO “respecting” the Fibonacci projections?’

Looking at the chart, it’s an obvious, yes.

Right now, we’re at the 161.8%, projection and USO is hesitating; at the same time, Nat-gas, UNG, appears to be forming a long-term bottom (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Beat Up & Down

April 10, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LABD, SPBIO, XBI, ZeroHedge

Fibonacci Day 13

Biotech’s been beat up and down so much, you can lose track of what’s really happening.

Include the financial media side-show, and it’s a recipe for confusion and delay.

In the case of biotech XBI, it had a ‘change of character’ on March 21st, then morphed into a trading channel.

Now, it looks like it has a Fibonacci time correlation.

It all sounds complicated, so let’s take a look.

Biotech XBI, Daily

The original change of character, identified in this post.

Yesterday, Tuesday, was Fibonacci Day 13, from the point where the ‘change’ was noted.

It appears, the market used Tuesday, to post the right side (supply side) of the current trading channel.

Of course, there have been no ‘confirming’ hits on that right side so far; we just have one data point.

As the action unfolds, the key is to look for the market to adhere to the channel or tell us that something else is happening (not advice, not a recommendation).

Sorry, No Rate Cuts

That’s news to some.

On this site, it’s been a working premise for over a year.

Remember, back then, it was called ‘The Pivot’:

“Like ‘bread and circuses’, the ‘pivot’ discussion is a distraction … keeping the proletariat placated.”

Now, the man behind the curtain has been exposed, here and here, it may get very dangerous … as if it’s not already.

This post is being released (12:52 p.m., EST) before the Fed minutes. No telling what kind of volatility may, or may not, ensue from there.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Supply ‘Disruption’ & Nat-Gas

March 26, 2024 By in Food Supply, Natural Gas, UNG, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Playing Out, In Real Time

Bridge in Baltimore collapses after container ship strike; major port is ‘paralyzed’.

Harvard to screen a movie about blowing up pipelines, and then:

Nat-gas rachets down; volatility is low, all quiet, for now.

Strategy First

It’s been almost a year since the first post, discussing the potential for a disruption to the nat-gas supply.

A lot of things have happened since then.

For example, large speculators have likely been forced-out of the UNG, proxy. Quoting from the link above, August of last year, we have this:

“If everybody’s ready for it … it won’t happen at all or not when it’s expected to happen.”

So, the crowd and the crowded trade, is probably gone.

Then, we have continuing infrastructure disconnects, like the bridge collapse above, the aviation sector, and cattle (the food supply), to name just a few.

Looking at the weekly of UNG, with Force Index (lower panel), we see downside pressure is dissipating.

Natural Gas UNG, ETF, Weekly

Weekly thrusts lower, have less energy (magenta arrow)

In addition to weakening downside force, the weekly range is also becoming more narrow (blue arrow).

So far, there’re no signs of increased demand, and UNG can continue on its way to lower levels.

However, we’re already at multi-year lows; indicating, with each net downside move, downside risk is also being reduced (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Fed’s Next Move … Rates Up

February 19, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, NVDA, TLT, Uneducated Economist, ZeroHedge

What A Surprise!

The Fed’s next move may be to raise rates, not lower them.

For those following this site, there’s no surprise. Over a year ago, we had this:

“Like ‘bread and circuses’, the ‘pivot’ discussion is a distraction … “

Incorporating the potential of rates higher into one’s analysis, ‘internalizing’ it as Uneducated Economist says, positions one completely out of the herd, able to view events objectively.

All of which brings us to the bond market, specifically long bonds TLT.

Long Bonds ETF, TLT Daily Close

Updates from this site are noted.

Until price action shows otherwise, rates are likely to head higher, not lower (bond prices down).

Therefore, using that strategic premise, the upside breakout (above resistance) in bonds had a higher probability of downside reversal than upside continuation.

No. 1 : The Usual Suspects

In the update with the above name, link here, scroll down to bullet item No. 10 for analysis.

The potential for a false breakout was correctly identified,

No. 2: Bond Reversal ? … Ruh, Roh

First, there’s potential, then, the actual.

The next update, link here, presented among other things, the odd occurrence of both bond and overall markets moving down simultaneously.

The inference being, the 40-year bond bull market is over and higher rates are more likely (not advice, not a recommendation).

Then, The Fed and Nvidia

The next few days may be quite interesting.

Nvidia (NVDA) earnings are due after hours on Wednesday and the Fed minutes are scheduled for release earlier (2:00 p.m., EST) the same day.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

D.R. Horton ‘Rolls Over’

February 17, 2024 By in DHI, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Interest Rates, NVDA, QQQ, Real Estate, SLV, SOXX, SPY, TLT, ZeroHedge

When Real Estate Goes …

It’s been said, ‘when real estate goes, everything goes’.

Like a slow-motion train wreck, since late January, this site’s been watching the (potential) topping activity of D.R. Horton, DHI.

Now, DHI is reversing; coincident with the housing starts collapse, link here.

D.R. Horton, DHI Weekly Close

We’re right at the top of the ‘terminating wedge’.

Downside penetration and test will provide confirmation of the reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

The major market indices appear to be topping out as well.

The SOXX, may have reversed. Trading was ‘outside-down’ during yesterday’s session.

The SPY, and QQQ, also posted outside-down.

The potential Nvidia, NVDA reversal (link here) shows that so far, that high has not been exceeded.

Rates Up, Not Down

Adding gasoline to the fire, part of this site’s strategy is rates are going higher, not lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

So far, we see that’s true with long bonds (TLT) reversing to the downside, yet again.

And Then … Gold

Let’s not leave out the latest bullish report on gold (and silver), link here.

Notice the bias … that silver’s cheap relative to gold.

How about the massive, multi-year, ‘non-confirmation‘ between gold and the other monetary metals.

If it was real 1980s style inflation, everything would be moving up in tandem … which it is not; something else is going on.

Is the mining sector, GDX, GDXJ, anticipating a price decline in gold?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Potential Short: D.R. Horton

January 27, 2024 By in DHI, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Real Estate, ZeroHedge 3 Comments

Watch For Retrace

We’ve all heard, it’s 80% planning and 20% trading.

So it is, with D.R. Horton (DHI).

As a reminder, this site addresses strategic positioning first, then tactics, and then focus. See the About section for more.

Strategy Review

Unless the charts say otherwise, rates are going higher, not lower. Gold and silver will likely go lower first, before going higher, supply destruction and resulting price increases will continue (not advice, not a recommendation).

D.R. Horton: Possible Retrace

One of two scenarios are likely. 

DHI could continue its decline, straightaway. Monday’s open could be gap-down, posting down, no looking back.

The next scenario, a retrace to test underside of resistance. As the chart below shows, that underside is right at 38.2%.

DHI, Daily

The chart presents ‘potential’ only. If the market is well behaved, a retrace to test is a reasonable expectation.

If there’s a retrace, Fibonacci Day 8, from the 1/22/24, high is this coming Wednesday, the 31st.

That day just so happens to correlate with the Fed interest rate announcement due out at 2:00 p.m., EST.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Rates Rising … Miners Critical

January 25, 2024 By in DHI, DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Interest Rates, JDST, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Then, The Real Estate Bubble

The elephant in the room:

Rates are not going lower, they’re going higher; sooner rather than later (not advice, not a recommendation).

Yesterday, ZeroHedge reported the 5-yr auction was nasty with rates rising to near recent highs.

Today, we have yet another supply disruption impacting so-called ‘inflation’.

Couple that with an apparent real estate implosion.

DH Horton (DHI) down nearly – 12% in just days and holding steady in the pre-market session.

It looks like the bubble party is (finally) over.

Gold Miners To Catch Bid?

The miners are at another critical juncture.

The Juniors GDXJ, are up in the pre-market session (8:00 a.m., EST) and may be catching a flight-to-safety bid as parts of the markets top out and/or reverse.

That flight to safety may not last long as we’ll see below.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

Trading is up about 1% or 0.32 pts in the pre-market.

GDXJ, price action is at The Danger Point®. 

We are either in a reversal (Wyckoff spring) set-up or just a pause before posting lower.

If it’s a rally, the target area is shown (magenta oval); corresponding to a 61.8% retrace.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.