Category Archives: GLD

Gold … Measured Moves

October 19, 2024 By in Charles Hugh Smith, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Gold Production, Speck-Effect, Statista, The Speck Tags: , , ,

Is This … ‘Inflation?‘

Is gold rising because of ‘inflation’ or just another market going through pattern-influenced moves?

Maybe there’s something else, something no-one talks about.

As far as known, the following insight (first discussed here) is exclusive:

Since 2020, world-wide gold output is declining; output for 2023, down over 9%, since 2019, link here.

Could this be a clue? Full article is here.

Well, enough of the truth.

Let’s get back to our fantasy world; the highly simplistic excuse that gold’s responding to ‘massive inflation’ and ‘money printing’.

Gold GLD, Monthly

One wedge, with its target already reached.

There’s another potential wedge (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since futures are trading about $200/oz. higher than GLD (at 1/10 oz. pricing), the second measured move if reached, corresponds to about $3,300/oz. (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Metals … ‘Whacked!’

July 25, 2024 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-24-05, SLV, UNG, UNG-24-11

Just Shocking

Especially shocking after having been subjected to non-stop delusion (now going on four months), and being ‘certain’ precious metals were headed higher.

Enough already.

Silver (SLV) is currently trading down a whopping -4.7%, in the pre-market session. Gold (GLD) is lower by about -1.2%.

Silver analysis has been consistent; SLV, price action itself, indicates a top and reversal or at best, sideways congestion (not advice, not a recommendation)

If one wants to review, starting back in April, we have:

Silver Top, Top Part II, Top Part III, Top Part IV, Top Part V, Top Part VI, Top Part VII, Top Part VII+, Stalls-Out

Now, this update essentially completes the process.

Silver, SLV, is about to open well below resistance as shown in the ‘Stalls-Out, update.

The Battle Against ‘Tik-Tok’ Brain

Fewer and fewer have a brain … like this (warning, profanity).

This guy sounds very much like the one in the ‘About‘ section. 🙂

Housekeeping: UNG, JDST

As can be inferred, a short trade via JDST, has already been opened: JDST-24-05.

Depending on today’s action, the stop listed is likely to be moved higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nat-Gas (UNG), on the other hand, is not behaving as expected.

The initial position UNG-24-11, was reduced by 80%, as a result of yesterday’s action. It’s likely that position will be closed out completely during this session (if not already).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Breakout or Fake-Out ?

March 16, 2024 By in Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, Gold & Silver, Inflation, Sovereign Default, Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Everybody’s, Been Waiting

How long has it been?

How long have we heard incessant rants, gold and silver hyper-launch is imminent?

Sure, I like gold as much as the next guy. It feels good when you hear the ‘clink’ of real money in your hands.

However, one has to remain unbiased and look at what price action, the market is actually telling us.

Strategy First

Since December 2020, this site has proposed, we’re in a situation similar to Genesis 41; it’s the food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

In this post (two years ago), an observation, ‘stackers’ may be forced to liquidate just to survive.

Now, we have this and this. On that second link, the comments tell the real story:

‘… people are selling their silver because they need cash.’

With that, let’s look at the chart of gold, GLD.

Gold GLD, Weekly Bar

We’ve seen it before, the set-up, The Danger Point®

Let’s add some insight to this picture, hidden in the chart; we have the following:

Look at how much time it’s taken GLD, to go from the bottom of the range to the top; longer each time and with less energy, shown by the decline in (upside) volume.

Longer & Less

Takes longer and less energy.

Still, that does not guarantee anything. Gold cold just keep on grinding higher.

However, probabilities suggest (the chart itself) we may be at or near, a pivot to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Up … Production Down

March 9, 2024 By in BA, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Inflation, NEM

New Highs As Supply Contracts

Is it as simple as being stuck between supply and demand?

If so, does that mean gold’s new highs have nothing (or very little) to do with inflation?

Over a year ago, was this post, proposing the following insight for gold (GLD):

“Maybe it’s because of scarcity (along with nearly everything else) that’s causing the increase in price.”

We can see from this link, world-wide production dropped in 2020, and has remained lower.

That is at least, an alternate reason for the increase in price.

Then, Newmont, NEM

Let’s not forget, in the above post was Newmont Mining, forming a ‘terminating wedge’, ready to break lower.

On Friday, January 20, 2023, one day before the update, NEM closed at 53.34.

The following week, three trading days later, NEM posted a high of 55.41, and rolled over; currently down a stiff 35.4%, at 33.91.

Miners In Decline, Why?

Gold’s at new highs, while miners GDX, GDXJ, are in a multi-year decline. Why?

Let’s answer the question with a question.

Why is Boeing (BA) and the airlines in decline? Why has there been one aviation incident after another like here, here and here?

Why are we having investigations like this and this?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

D.R. Horton ‘Rolls Over’

February 17, 2024 By in DHI, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Interest Rates, NVDA, QQQ, Real Estate, SLV, SOXX, SPY, TLT, ZeroHedge

When Real Estate Goes …

It’s been said, ‘when real estate goes, everything goes’.

Like a slow-motion train wreck, since late January, this site’s been watching the (potential) topping activity of D.R. Horton, DHI.

Now, DHI is reversing; coincident with the housing starts collapse, link here.

D.R. Horton, DHI Weekly Close

We’re right at the top of the ‘terminating wedge’.

Downside penetration and test will provide confirmation of the reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

The major market indices appear to be topping out as well.

The SOXX, may have reversed. Trading was ‘outside-down’ during yesterday’s session.

The SPY, and QQQ, also posted outside-down.

The potential Nvidia, NVDA reversal (link here) shows that so far, that high has not been exceeded.

Rates Up, Not Down

Adding gasoline to the fire, part of this site’s strategy is rates are going higher, not lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

So far, we see that’s true with long bonds (TLT) reversing to the downside, yet again.

And Then … Gold

Let’s not leave out the latest bullish report on gold (and silver), link here.

Notice the bias … that silver’s cheap relative to gold.

How about the massive, multi-year, ‘non-confirmation‘ between gold and the other monetary metals.

If it was real 1980s style inflation, everything would be moving up in tandem … which it is not; something else is going on.

Is the mining sector, GDX, GDXJ, anticipating a price decline in gold?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Interest Rate Snare

January 11, 2024 By in DUST, Ed Dowd, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Greg Hunter, JDST, SLV, Wyckoff

Manipulated Into The Trap

‘They [The Fed] are totally tricking the markets’ (time stamp 3:30), link here.

Yes, it’s a real chess game going on and the other side, makes up the rules.

This update presents that despite all the manipulation and head-fakes, significant market pivots in the miners were identified (correctly) with Wyckoff analysis.

That analysis, in turn, helped develop a long-term strategy (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Close

Three key points are shown on the chart. 

The first goes all the way back to October of 2020, link here. There’s something wrong with the miners.

Potential for another downward pivot, link here, was identified to-the-week, if not, to-the-day.

The subsequent move printed the most impulsive price action since the spike melt-down of early 2020.

Which brings us to today.

Another potential pivot has been identified, link here.

As of this post (11:20 a.m., EST) the Juniors GDXJ, continue to rachet lower.

The Long Term

As Ed Dowd points out in this interview, what’s happening now will affect us all for decades, if not centuries to come.

Therefore, it’s a good idea to have a long-term strategy.

From the above chart, it’s clear that Wyckoff analysis has been on the correct side of GDXJ price action; the bearish side (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold’s Technical Exhaustion

January 6, 2024 By in DUST, Federal Reserve, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Richie Naso, Uneducated Economist, ZeroHedge

Divergences, What Happens Next?

Is gold about to blow up?

Blow-up breakout? … No, blow-up breakdown.

As we’ll see in the chart of GLD below, double bearish divergence on the daily.

At time stamp 6:10, here, in the Fed’s own words, rates are not coming down, they’re likely to go higher.

‘We will need to increase the Fed’s funds rates further …’

Not forgetting bonds, may have already reversed, here.

Then, liquidity crunch … yet to appear in full force.

Next, a reminder, herd instinct is strong, link here.

Gold GLD, Daily

On a daily basis, we have a double bearish MACD divergence coupled with a terminating wedge.

As veteran trader Richie Naso says, ‘It’s all about patterns‘.

Let’s add intrigue, here (time stamp 13:58), finding out what happens in a liquidity crisis, i.e., ‘Sell everything.’

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Usual Suspects

December 16, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, AMT, Biotech, BOIL, Bonds, CVNA, DRI, Federal Reserve, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IYR, LABD, Natural Gas, Real Estate, Semiconductors, SLV, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, TBT, TLT, Uneducated Economist, UNG, Usual Suspects, WEAT, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Everything Happening At Once?

Not in any particular order; not advice and not a recommendation.

No 1. There (still) is no Fed Pivot. Seriously, have rates really, actually been lowered? Everyone has a huge case of ‘normalcy bias’. i.e., what the Fed did last time will happen this time.

The 40-year bond bull market from the 80’s, ended in 2020. We’re in a different paradigm now.

No. 2 Natual Gas UNG, is reversing. We’ll see whether or not there’s going to be a supply disruption.

No. 3 The semiconductors SOXX, now have a monthly bearish MACD divergence; daily and the weekly indicators posting even to prior tops (as of Friday’s close). 

No. 4 Components of biotech index XBI, are being shuffled around faster than deck chairs on the Titanic … or, the Olympic 🙂

Seems like a mad dash to add/remove, increase, reduce equities to prop things up. We’ll see how that turns out. Currently, XBI is right at resistance level, 86.50 – 87.0

Here’s just one example from an index, riddled with equities that have no P/E.

No. 5 Carvana is very close to posting new highs and potentially, running the stops.

No. 6 Has Darden Restaurants, topped out? 

The consumer is certainly tapped-out and no-one ‘needs’ a restaurant.

No. 7 Wheat is reversing; It is and has always been about the food supply.

No. 8 Gold, GLD, is currently not going higher (look at the divergences); silver (SLV) is in a major non-confirmation, down nearly – 55%, from all-time highs.

During the 1980s inflation, precious metals moved (upward) together.

Silver looks like it’s responding to the destruction/collapse of (economic) demand.

No. 9 American Tower (AMT), number two in the IYR index, posts a clear false breakout and reversal. 

If rates really are going (materially) lower, interest rate sensitive real estate should continue going higher, right?

No. 10 Which brings us to the bond market, TLT. 

Price action broke above established resistance, currently hovering above that level. 

It’s at The Danger Point®

We can see the set-up, a price action pattern repeated time and again, between the lower and upper blue lines, called a ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

While the media laughs at the bears, let’s just see how this all works out.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Decision Point

October 21, 2023 By in GLD, Gold & Silver, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Is This The Last Peak?

We’ve got a Quadrillion Dollar Derivative Bubble out there, just waiting to pop … if it hasn’t already.

So, riddle me this; just exactly how is that (likely) collapse going to be paid-off … with what?

Fiat currency?

The chart of gold GLD below, is on a Fibonacci 8-Day scale.

Who looks at an 8-Day chart?

Gold GLD, 8-Day

As of Friday’s close, we’re just below resistance (top blue line) which puts price action in Wyckoff Up-Thrust, (potential reversal) condition.

The chart also shows, over the past three-years, volume on each successive (major) upward 8-Day spike is declining.

The percentages shown, are the volume decline from the prior move higher.

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, volume equals commitment and/or energy.

Positioning

Anything can happen.

Looking at the last financial collapse back in ’08 – ’09, GLD declined about – 32%, (very near that ’33’, mark) before moving significantly higher.

If we get another financial meltdown (which we may be in already), is anyone prepared for GLD to drop – 50%, or more … let’s say, – 66%?

A decline of 66% from the all-time GLD high of 194.45 (posted, 8/6/20), puts GLD, at a potential low of 66.1 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver: Breakout or Test?

October 18, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GLD, Gold & Silver, LABD, LABD-23-11, Michael Cowan, Positions, SLV, SPBIO 2 Comments

Non-Confirmation

First off, before we get started, there’s this on ZeroHedge; Gold price out of control?

The short answer is ‘probably not’ and we’ll use the confirmation proxy Silver (SLV), as our example (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Silver Non-Confirmation

In a traditional ‘inflation’ scenario, silver and gold typically move in tandem.

We can see that’s the case during the last (major) inflation event back in the late ’70s and early ’80s.

Gold spiked right along with silver; Gold chart link here. Silver chart link here.

That Was Then

What we have now, is different. Something’s wrong.

Silver’s not confirming the price rise of gold; Silver vs. Gold, link here.

There’s a massive divergence between the two.

Silver (SLV) Weekly Close

The SLV weekly, shows we’ve broken down from a wedge, now testing the underside of resistance.

Silver more than gold, is tied directly to the economy; over half of all silver is used in production.

It seems, production is about to fall off a cliff.

Evidence can be seen in a corollary indicator, layoffs.

Mass Layoffs

As Michael Cowan shows (time stamp 1:30), layoffs are accelerating.

Let’s not forget, ShadowStats shows its own unemployment indicator, already at Depression Era levels.

Positioning

On this site, beginning in mid-September, short positions (via LABD) were opened in possibly, the weakest sector, biotech, SPBIO, $SPSIBI (not advice, not a recommendation).

The initial position was stopped out (gain around +21%), then re-established the same day (LABD-23-11) with an LABD entry of 21.69.

So far, with today’s action, LABD’s trading around 23.90; approximately + 10% from the entry.

In addition, we now have a new Hard Stop @ LABD 21.65, yesterday’s low (not advice, not a recommendation)

Chart updates are planned for the next post.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279