Category Archives: Gold & Silver

‘Mania’ or ‘Money’ … Your Choice

May 30, 2023 By in Dr. Elder, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, NVDA, Positions, The Maverick of Wall Street, TSLA, ZeroHedge

The Challenge Vs., The Money

The ‘Artificial Intelligence’ (AI) clown show’s in full swing with a ‘predicted‘ single quarter target of $11-Billion, from NVDA.

That’s not to be confused with the budget clown show just ended in Washinton D.C.

And where does that leave Tesla? They seem to be left out of the latest round of cult-like insanity.

Back in the day, Dr. Alexander Elder stated, professionals don’t look for the ‘challenge’ in the markets (trying to figure out the NVDA, top), they look for the ‘money’ … there’s a huge difference.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Candle

As of 12:35 p.m., EST, from a technical perspective, even though we’re up for the day (so far), MACD momentum’s increasing to the downside (magenta arrow).

Nobody seems to be paying attention to gold and silver; all eyes are focused on the next shiny object.

Pulling out a bit farther on the weekly, there’s no question we’re in a channel.

The question is, are we (GDXJ) going to say in that channel or reverse from here?

The last update said we’d likely be testing the wedge break and that’s what’s happening.

A ‘test’ will take however long is needed. It’s either pass or fail. Pass in this case is resumption to the downside.

Technical conditions (MACD, wedge break) favor the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

In addition, we need to keep in mind there’s a new circus in town; the miners may be well on their way to more downside before anyone steps out of the big-top to notice.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miner’s Reversal … Still Early

May 16, 2023 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, SLV

A Long Way To Go

If this is the ‘big one’ that everyone’s talking about, the miners have a long way to go to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

When there’s a viable, bearish (or bullish) divergence, then price action has the potential to go much farther and the move last much longer than anyone would expect.

Junior Miners GDXJ (as well as GDX), have posted a bearish MACD divergence on the weekly time frame … very significant.

That divergence is shown below:

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Candle

Price action goes one way (i.e., up) while MACD goes the other … down.

Other posts have already covered details of the current set-up, now reversal, links here and here.

Not covered yet, is the apparent repeating trendline and potential trading channel.

That is shown on the daily close chart of GDXJ, below:

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily Close

At the minimum, on the right side of the chart we have a down trendline. An upside break of this line would negate any short positions … (not advice, not a recommendation).

The compressed chart of GDXJ (below), shows the potential.

As of this post (12:57 p.m., EST) GDXJ, continues to move decisively lower. Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) have reversed to the downside.

Gold’s reversal potential has been discussed previously here, and here.

No one expects a significant reversal in gold …. no one.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Hanging By A Thread … GDXJ

May 7, 2023 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Wyckoff 5 Comments

At The Next Open

If we’re at the downside pivot for gold and the miners, there’s only one right answer for the next market session.

That answer is:

Lower open, lower high, lower close.

Not advice, not a recommendation.

However, it is an assessment of where we are in the market cycle for gold and the miners.

The focus is on the Juniors GDXJ, as they are the weakest of both gold GLD, and the Seniors GDX.

If GDXJ, does not open lower, there’s something else happening; that would mean the downside reversal potential is in question and/or it could morph into more testing at the Axis Line, previously discussed.

Here’s a close-up of the sector.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

Volume bar No. 1, corresponded with a solid up move for that session; shown as Price Bar No. 1.

Volume Bar No. 2, is where it gets interesting.

Specifically, higher volume, more narrow range (net distance) and a close well off the high.

Wyckoff called this: ‘effort vs. reward’.

Lots of effort (volume) with less reward (distance) than the previous move.

The next session confirmed that assessment by opening gap-down and then spending the entire day attempting to close higher … which did not happen.

That day (last Friday) may have been short covering. If so, we’re about to find out.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily (forecast)

If we’re in a reversal (a big if), then we’ll get some variation of the price bar (black arrow) as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

For the bearish option to remain intact, GDXJ needs to open lower and close lower for the day.

However, it does not need to post a new daily low, although that would help the case for more downside.

Anything other than what’s just described, would indicate a more complex price action environment.

If that happens, an update will be released.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Bulls … Exhausted

May 6, 2023 By in GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Wyckoff 5 Comments

The Volume Speaks

Nearly everyone expects gold to go higher; much higher.

You want ‘clicks’ on your website? Then talk about how gold’s going to the moon.

It’s an easy grift. Everybody’s doing it.

However, gold’s truth is in the price action, not the grift.

We’re going to look at that truth and more specifically, what gold’s (GLD) volume is telling us.

With full understanding that anything can happen, gold could go higher, there’s a case for a significant downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Gold GLD, Weekly

In Wyckoff analysis terms, volume is the energy behind the move. It’s the commitment … or lack thereof.

Last week’s volume is far below the prior spike high set during the ‘invasion’.

It’s down over 56% from the ‘invasion’ spike and down 26% from the most recent spike.

Demand, commitment and thrust energy, are backing away from the gold market.

Moving down to the daily, we see the net distance traveled with each significant thrust is shorter than the last.

Gold GLD, Daily Close

Wyckoff wrote about this observation a century ago when discussing how to spot the end (or absorption phase) of a move.

He called it ‘shortening of the thrust’.

So, there it is. The weekly chart shows each major volume spike is less than the last.

The daily close has net distance traveled less than the last.

Add in the mining sector’s GDXJ, posting its most recent peak four weeks ago (week ended April 10th).

Last week’s action in the Junior’s appeared to be an act of desperation by the bulls.

We’ll cover that sector in the next update.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Do ‘Miners’ Lead The Metal ?

May 4, 2023 By in GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners 2 Comments

Looking Over The Past Year

Does the mining sector forecast the actual direction of precious metals; specifically, gold?

When looking over the past year, the short answer is yes.

We’ll look at the daily chart of the Junior Mining Sector GDXJ, below and show that each peak and reversal in gold, was preceded by a reversal in the mining sector (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Mining Sector GDXJ, Daily

Each ‘black arrow’ shown on the chart of GDXJ, is a peak or bottom and significant reversal in gold (GLD).

Over the past year, GDXJ reached its peak or bottom several days or several weeks before the actual metal.

The right-most arrow is blue … because we don’t know what’s going to happen next.

Pulling to a longer time frame (still using the daily), we see the GDXJ on a closing basis, is oscillating about an axis line that’s been in effect for three years.

Junior Mining Sector GDXJ, Daily Close

Until proven otherwise, we’re still in a test of the ‘Up-Thrust’.

Price action could somehow power its way higher (with higher gold prices) and move into some kind of bull move.

Or, as the chart implies, we’re at a potential inflection point with probabilities equally weighted but suggesting a slight hint to the downside.

Futures Market

Gold futures, GCM23, as of this post (10:25 p.m., EST), are drifting higher and curretly trading up about +0.05%.

Funny things tend to happen overnight in the futures markets. We’ll see if the upward bias holds to the next open or if downside pressure becomes apparent.

From a news standpoint, we have the employment report(s) before the open at 8:30 a.m.; the Fed speaks at 1:00 p.m.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … The Reversal

April 29, 2023 By in Derecho, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Jerimiah Babe, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Each Peak Is Lower

Gold’s reversal or potential for reversal, has already been covered here, here and here.

We’re going to focus on the Junior Miners GDXJ but start first, with an updated chart of gold (GLD).

Gold GLD, Weekly Close

This is how it looked back on April 15th.

As of the close yesterday, we have this:

It’s arguable GLD, is now below the resistance line (completing the Spring-to-Up-Thrust) but that’s not the most important part from a trading standpoint.

When looking at the Junior Mining Index GDXJ, there’s an ominous pattern.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Close

Each extreme peak over the last three-years has been labeled; the Derecho of 2020, the so-called Ukraine ‘invasion’, and now, the banking crisis.

Note: The SVB bank failure was on March 10th. There was a ‘knee-jerk’ reaction by the public into gold and related components … that peak appears to have stalled at the location shown.

What’s going on is obvious; it’s a bear market.

Each major peak, lower than the last.

Now, the interesting part.

The Junior Miners are in Wycoff Up-Thrust condition.

In this case, price action’s solidly below the resistance line.

Looking at the daily (not shown), there may have been a ‘test’ of resistance this past week for a move higher; if so, it failed and GDXJ closed slightly lower.

Summary & Positioning

So, here we are: The market (SPY) has rallied over the past week, giving the illusion that all is well.

However, it too is now in up-thrust (reversal) position.

For my business accounts, it looks like being short the miners at this juncture is lower risk than being short biotech (not advice, not a recommendation).

Typical short vehicles that could be used (not a recommendation) are DUST and JDST.

As always, anything can happen. If the markets ‘implode’, they might be closed for any number of days or weeks.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Panic’ Into Gold … Reversal Risk

April 15, 2023 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 3 Comments

Gold Bulls Exhausted

With Friday’s downside reversal we’re now between Euphoria and Anxiety for gold.

This past week was inundated with stories of panic at the bullion dealers.

YouTube ‘content creators’ were going berserk with hyper-inflationist rants; other ‘influencers’ telling us the dollar’s about to collapse; they say the Fed’s the only reason the dollar’s not at zero right now.

Then, rumors warning of gold to $5,000/oz. and higher.

The result as you would expect, is a highly emotional, manipulated public.

Different This Time?

At this point, whether or not the dollar will collapse is probably irrelevant.

Long time visitors to this site already know, battle lines (like here and here) are being drawn and it’s not in precious metals (not advice, not a recommendation).

As always, anything can happen and gold could go higher but with Friday’s reversal, probabilities have now shifted to the downside.

With that, we now have an ominous chart of gold below.

It shows the set-up to a repeating market characteristic:

Wyckoff ‘Spring to Up-Thrust’.

Gold (GLD) Weekly Close

Gold’s momentum wanes just as it’s pushing up through resistance.

Obviously, what happens next is the important part.

Strategy

Looking at the economic calendar for the coming week, there’s a Fed speaker every single day. If we’re really at a significant reversal, next week’s likely to put the panic into unsustainable overdrive and mark the top.

For the bulls, we’re looking for the GLD, highs to be maintained. If it can’t hold, there’s reversal trouble ahead.

A Reversal?

If this is the ‘big one’ and gold reverses, a likely (medium-term) target is in the area of $1,300/oz., – $1,350/oz. (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that happens, gold’s still expensive but it’s the mining sector GDX, GDXJ, that would potentially be devastated.

Both the Seniors and Juniors are already printing an MACD bearish divergence (not yet confirmed) when looking at the weekly charts.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Salt … or … Gold

April 9, 2023 By in Currencies, Dollar, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, Gold & Silver, ice-age-farmer, Salt, UUP, Wyckoff 2 Comments

‘Stacking’, The Right Thing?

“One ounce of gold for half kg of salt”

That’s what it cost for salt during the reign of the Khmer Rouge, as reported by a Cambodian in the comment section at this link.

One-half kilogram, is roughly 1.1 lbs., or 17.6 oz.

One ounce of gold for about 18-oz. of salt … sounds about right … if you’re starving.

Salt is essential for life; gold, not so much.

Strategy, First

This site’s primary focus is strategy.

It has adhered to the premise (for years), we’re in a situation that mimics Genesis 41

That means, it’s the corn and the grain, i.e., food, first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

A brief list for further review is, here, here, here, and here.

The ‘Price’ of Salt

For the ‘stackers’, consider this:

In our example above, the commentor said their family survived in part, because they had “100kg of salt”.

That amount equates to about 220 lbs.

Converting 1oz gold for (roughly) 18-oz. salt, at today’s gold prices, is about $392,000 ‘worth’ of salt.

When they came out other side, the salt may have been gone, but they had the gold. 🙂

Now, moving on to the chart.

Gold (GLD), Weekly

Gold is at a critical juncture.

We’re either in a potential ‘throw-over’ on the wedge formation (with reversal) or about to pressure higher into all-time highs (not advice, not a recommendation).

We see a rising (terminating) wedge, along with a decline in volume (thrust).

We’re at The Danger Point®

Gold’s price action does not need much of a push to go either way.

Then, The Dollar

Recall, from the dollar update (link here), there’s a possibility for it to decline from current levels; potentially setting up a Wyckoff spring condition.

A dollar decline would naturally provide a likely correlation for gold rising into new all-time highs.

If either one happens, there’s probably going to be panic.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold’s ‘Maginot Line’

April 1, 2023 By in 1929, GLD, Gold & Silver, Great Depression, Neil McCoy-Ward, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Strong Resistance, Built In

Unbeknownst to many, we’re witnessing a once-in-a-century opportunity and public service.

Those from the era of The Great Depression, are all gone now.

So, the same playbook can be run without anyone (alive) knowing we’ve been here before.

The public service presented to us, the massive on-going exposure of the financial charlatans and grifters.

You can be ‘certified’ and still be a certified (market) dolt.

Neil McCoy-Ward, points this out in his recent update linked here. Go to time stamp 8:40;

“Clueless” … “Completely Asleep”

Anyone who’s worked in the corporate world (in any sector), especially now, knows it’s near impossible to think or act independently.

So, it is with gold.

Gold & The Grifter Bandwagon

Where was everybody back in 2001, when gold was bottoming in the area of $270/oz., after a multi-decades long bear market (from 1980)?

The fact we have nothing but breathless panic from grifters and hangers-on, about rampant inflation should at least give one pause, we could be at a temporary or major reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

At least with the analysis below, there’s a decision point that will let us know if we’re due for another leg higher, or if there’s a Sovereign debt crisis about to break that would kick-off massive selling of all assets including gold.

Gold GLD, Weekly

As the title says, we’ve got something akin to a ‘Maginot Line’ for gold. What looks like insurmountable resistance that could still be breached … but for now, is holding.

With each (manufactured) crisis, gold’s momentum in the form of price and volume, is declining.

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, the bulls (for now) are running out of steam.

The ‘terminating wedge’ in gold’s price action has already been discussed, link here.

Looking at the action in another light, we see a Wyckoff Up-Thrust in the works. Price action has penetrated a previous high and is currently struggling.

If gold (GLD) is able to significantly penetrate the resistance and hold, then we’re likely on to the hysterical predictions of the masses.

If not, and we get a reversal, it’s going to be big surprise for many. They’ll be stunned, unable to move and eventually provide more fuel for the downside as they sell in panic.

Downside Drivers

What could possibly be a downside driver for gold?

One has already been mentioned, a Sovereign debt crisis. It’s a likely event considering the record-pace rise for interest rates and subsequent bank failures.

Another is an ‘executive’ decision that gold ownership is outlawed. It’s happened in the past and those who got through that event are no longer with us.

Moving on, we’ve already been told there will be a ‘cyber-attack’.

What’s going to happen to gold, when there’s no electricity, fuel or food shipments?

As survivalist author Ron Foster says, in this interview, (time stamp 27:20), during a grid-down situation, he’s not giving up his food. He says, during such an event, precious metals are “meaningless”.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil … Gas … Gold & Newmont

January 21, 2023 By in Dow 30, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Inflation, IYR, Michael Cowan, NEM, Oil & Gas, Prechter, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, Speck-Effect, SPY, The Speck, Twitter, XOM, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Markets, At Critical Juncture

Nemont Mining (NEM), Gold, and the Oil & Gas Sector are at a critical juncture.

The rest of the major indices, Dow, S&P, QQQs, real estate (IYR), and so on, are in a similar position.

For this update, we’ll focus on Newmont (NEM), as it’s the largest cap in the Senior Mining Sector GDX, and a general representative of the commodities markets.

Financial collapse is a process, not an event.

Newmont topped-out in April, of last year. Exxon, the proxy for the Oil & Gas sector, may have reached its highs this past November.

Where’s The Inflation?

As Michael Cowan has just reported, banks are absconding with depositor’s money under the guise of ‘bail-in’.

If the fiat cash is so worthless, why are banks seizing it?

As Robert Prechter Jr., said years ago, ‘all fiat cash ultimately goes to zero’; the end game (most likely) for the dollar. However, it could be months, years, or even a decade before that happens.

For right now, today, this minute, the data is showing us, the banks want the money; ‘Show me the money‘.

With that, let’s look at the non-existent ‘inflation’ in the mining sector.

Newmont Mining NEM, Weekly

The first chart identifies the heavy volume and then test of wide price bars. This behavior is common in the markets; they tend to come back and test wide high-volume areas.

Next, we see there’s a terminating wedge developing as volume declines; the inference, is lack of significant commitment at these price levels.

We’ll get close-in on the wedge; last week printed a lower weekly low and closed lower for the week.

There’s no breakdown of the wedge … yet.

At this juncture, it’s up to the bulls to show they’re still in control.

Inflation vs. Scarcity

We have without a doubt, the effects of the event from the past three years gaining momentum. Whether or not those effects reach a peak this year, is unknown.

A lot of the mainstream and YouTuber’s alike talk about the upward move in gold as the result of ‘inflation’.

Here’s a little bit of insight you’ll not find anywhere else; how about gold rising because the above mentioned ‘effects‘ are causing production volumes to decline?

Maybe it’s because of scarcity (along with nearly everything else) that’s causing the increase in price.

Just to drive that idea home, the latest total gold production numbers, listed here.

Gold production for 2020 dropped -8.2%, from the year prior. Year 2021 was down -1%, from 2020.

From 2010 to 1019, gold production increased or was flat year over year … that is, until 2020.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279