Category Archives: Food Supply

CORN … Contrary Indicator(s)

September 1, 2025 By in Corn, Food Supply, Genesis 41, Ox Talks, SOYB, Teucrium

The Press, is Always Last

If the financial press is reporting on a trend, it typically means, that trend is well established and possibly near the end of its move.

So, it could be with Corn and Soybeans as reported by Fortune link here and RawStory, link here.

Ignoring the not-so subliminal messaging (i.e. it’s Trump’s fault), both articles may be contrary indicators of a bottom or bottoming process.

From this site’s perspective, it’s been a long time since the last update on Teucrium tracking fund CORN, link here.

The update said to watch for a reversal and potential ‘test’.

However, it also said this:

“That amount of time below support seems a bit of a stretch for labeling it as a ‘spring’.”

The assessment was correct. The ‘spring’ setup failed, ultimately bringing us to now.

Teucrium Tracking Fund, CORN, Monthly

During August, CORN penetrated support, then reversed.

Volume for the month more than doubled, indicating increased demand at these levels (not advice, not a recommendation).

With commodities like corn, gold, silver, oil and others, literally anything can happen.

We could get negative prices.

With that said, let’s watch to see if there’s a test of what looks to be a nascent reversal; proceed with caution (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The CORN Collapse

June 29, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Corn, Derecho, Food Supply, Genesis 41, ice-age-farmer, Natural Gas, SPBIO, Teucrium, UNG, Wyckoff, XBI

Another Nat-Gas Scenario?

The beginning of a bullish set-up?

The financial press says the wipeout in corn, is because of oversupply.

That, may or may not, be true.

Since Wyckoff analysis doesn’t care about the press, we’ll use it to discern the (potential) truth.

Let’s see how it did in the recent past. The Nat-Gas (UNG) low, was identified to-the-day, link here.

From that post, was this:

“Downward thrust in Nat-Gas UNG, appears to be exhausting itself after a 20-month, bear market. Risk is never zero, but currently appears to be at a low … “

So, it was. Afterwards, UNG bounced near, but never touched that low.

Twelve trading days later (Fibonacci 13 days, from low), it reversed decisively to the upside.

The Same, But Not

On the medium, to long-term, CORN action is the same as biotech (XBI), but opposite.

Instead of an up-thrust two-years in the making, we may have a spring set-up, taking just as long if not longer.

Where’s The ‘Potato’?

So, where’s the ‘Potato Head Gambit‘?

It’s possible, mishaps could be on the upside instead of down. It worked last time; here and here.

That ‘event’ went straight across the most-dense areas of the corn belt.

All of which, brings us to the chart.

Teucrium CORN Fund, Weekly

We’re in spring position now (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, shown on the chart is a potential low at the Fibonacci 76.4%, retrace.

The financial press article in the very first link (above) does have some useful information.

That is, ‘spec’ traders are adding to short positions.

‘Spec’ traders are the least informed.

It’s the ‘commercials’, professionals working the industry that are most informed.

Monitoring what they (the commercials) are doing is the potential key to the next likely direction for CORN (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Usual Suspects

June 16, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Food Supply, Genesis 41, Interest Rates, James Grant, The Speck, Usual Suspects, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Can It Get Any More Stupid?

It’s been a while since rounding up The Usual Suspects.

However, like last time, the stupidity, misdirection, misinformation, outright falsehoods, overall grift and schtick, has got to the point where an update is needed.

We’ll start off by repeating No. 1 from the prior ‘suspects’ as it encompasses the whole genre of ‘non-thought’ by the public and financial press alike; readers of this post excepted, of course. 🙂

No 1. There (still) is no Fed Pivot. Seriously, have rates really, actually been lowered? Everyone has a huge case of ‘normalcy bias’. i.e., what the Fed did last time will happen this time.

The 40-year bond bull market from the ’80s, ended in 2020. We’re in a different paradigm now.

We’ll add in this updated post, James Grant, of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer.

He second’s the motion: The 40-year bond bull market, is over. Period.

No 2. It has always been about the food supply.

Food is boring and gets no ‘clicks’ on my grifting ‘silver, gold stacking’ website or YouTube, so I ignore it.

After all, my business, is to get more business.

Just a reminder, if anyone really wants (inedible) gold or silver (cheap), this might be a way to get it.

No 3. The market has ‘thinned out’ to an incredible degree.

Now, instead of The Mag 7, there are only three and one of them, is a washed-up gaming stock.

How apropos, when considering the opening paragraphs about the overall public and financial press.

No 4. Is Artificial Intelligence just another lie?

Looks like according to this, it can’t be trusted. Who could have guessed?

I’m shocked! Shocked!

No 5. Ruh-Roh Scooby, fake meat’s bad for your health.

Didn’t see that one coming.

No 6. Well, there could be a new ‘scarient‘ in the works.

However, looking at price action of the biotech sector, far below its all-time highs, the market itself, is saying ‘No, not this time.’

No 7. Could the S&P make it to 6,300?

After all, it’s all about the numbers, right?

The S&P bottomed at 666.67 on 3/9/09.

Summary

If there ever was a time as Wyckoff said, to ‘completely ignore the financial press’, this may be that time.

He also stated, ‘reading price action is hard, taking literally decades and many losses to master’, a skill which is never really complete.

As the ‘About‘ section states, this site is one leader’s perspective on that action; presenting it, in a strategically cognizant form.

As far as is known, no other site is doing the same.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Corn & The ‘Potato’

March 30, 2024 By in Corn, Derecho, Food Supply, Genesis 41, ice-age-farmer, Oil, Wyckoff

… A Plan (nearly) Comes Together

It’s been over a year since this post, forecasting the potential direction for corn.

Since then, as we’ll see below, the corn commodity tracking fund CORN, bottomed at 18.72, before reversing.

It came within 0.72-pts., of the forecasted (measured) move.

What we’re being told (by the market) at this point, is the analysis has been correct, thus far.

So, the obvious question is, ‘What’s next?’

Strategy First

For a potential answer and set-up, let’s not forget what launched CORN, in the first place, the Derecho, way back in August of 2020.

Noting the chart in the link above, we have a change of character; massive volume in the weeks leading up to the weather ‘event’.

Someone’s opening a huge position ahead of time.

Now, four years later, CORN hits its forecasted (retrace) target and is reversing. Is it time to go long?

Under ‘normal’ market conditions, that answer would probably be yes. (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, we should all know by now, we’re not in normal conditions and probably won’t be for years, if not decades.

No, we’re still waiting for the ‘Potato Head Gambit‘.

“What we’re looking for here, is some kind of Jimmy Carter type stunt where corn exports are halted in the name of ‘national security’ or some such thing.”

Corn Tracking Fund CORN, Weekly

Two Fibonacci projections are overlaid on the chart.

First, a simple retrace starting near ‘Derecho’ lows, to highs set during the week of April 29th, 2022.

Second, a counter-trend projection from those highs to the intermediate lows set during week of May 19th, 2023 and highs of June 23rd, week, the same year.

CORN has retraced 61.8%, which is also the 1:1 counter-trend projection. In addition, it’s the measured move from the wedge break.

The market has effectively confirmed the support area.

Oil Goes Negative … And Corn?

Remember that ‘anything can happen’. Oil futures made history by going negative.

We’re in a new construct, a new paradigm, our strategy should match accordingly.

Everyone has their own perspective and plan for the markets; fair enough.

From here, CORN could continue to new, all-time highs.

However, for my accounts, I’ll wait until such time it appears the downside risk is removed as much as possible.

One potential area for that ‘removal’ is the 76.4%, retrace in the vicinity of CORN @ 16 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Supply ‘Disruption’ & Nat-Gas

March 26, 2024 By in Food Supply, Natural Gas, UNG, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Playing Out, In Real Time

Bridge in Baltimore collapses after container ship strike; major port is ‘paralyzed’.

Harvard to screen a movie about blowing up pipelines, and then:

Nat-gas rachets down; volatility is low, all quiet, for now.

Strategy First

It’s been almost a year since the first post, discussing the potential for a disruption to the nat-gas supply.

A lot of things have happened since then.

For example, large speculators have likely been forced-out of the UNG, proxy. Quoting from the link above, August of last year, we have this:

“If everybody’s ready for it … it won’t happen at all or not when it’s expected to happen.”

So, the crowd and the crowded trade, is probably gone.

Then, we have continuing infrastructure disconnects, like the bridge collapse above, the aviation sector, and cattle (the food supply), to name just a few.

Looking at the weekly of UNG, with Force Index (lower panel), we see downside pressure is dissipating.

Natural Gas UNG, ETF, Weekly

Weekly thrusts lower, have less energy (magenta arrow)

In addition to weakening downside force, the weekly range is also becoming more narrow (blue arrow).

So far, there’re no signs of increased demand, and UNG can continue on its way to lower levels.

However, we’re already at multi-year lows; indicating, with each net downside move, downside risk is also being reduced (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Breakout or Fake-Out ?

March 16, 2024 By in Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, Gold & Silver, Inflation, Sovereign Default, Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Everybody’s, Been Waiting

How long has it been?

How long have we heard incessant rants, gold and silver hyper-launch is imminent?

Sure, I like gold as much as the next guy. It feels good when you hear the ‘clink’ of real money in your hands.

However, one has to remain unbiased and look at what price action, the market is actually telling us.

Strategy First

Since December 2020, this site has proposed, we’re in a situation similar to Genesis 41; it’s the food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

In this post (two years ago), an observation, ‘stackers’ may be forced to liquidate just to survive.

Now, we have this and this. On that second link, the comments tell the real story:

‘… people are selling their silver because they need cash.’

With that, let’s look at the chart of gold, GLD.

Gold GLD, Weekly Bar

We’ve seen it before, the set-up, The Danger Point®

Let’s add some insight to this picture, hidden in the chart; we have the following:

Look at how much time it’s taken GLD, to go from the bottom of the range to the top; longer each time and with less energy, shown by the decline in (upside) volume.

Longer & Less

Takes longer and less energy.

Still, that does not guarantee anything. Gold cold just keep on grinding higher.

However, probabilities suggest (the chart itself) we may be at or near, a pivot to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Usual Suspects

December 16, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, AMT, Biotech, BOIL, Bonds, CVNA, DRI, Federal Reserve, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IYR, LABD, Natural Gas, Real Estate, Semiconductors, SLV, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, TBT, TLT, Uneducated Economist, UNG, Usual Suspects, WEAT, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Everything Happening At Once?

Not in any particular order; not advice and not a recommendation.

No 1. There (still) is no Fed Pivot. Seriously, have rates really, actually been lowered? Everyone has a huge case of ‘normalcy bias’. i.e., what the Fed did last time will happen this time.

The 40-year bond bull market from the 80’s, ended in 2020. We’re in a different paradigm now.

No. 2 Natual Gas UNG, is reversing. We’ll see whether or not there’s going to be a supply disruption.

No. 3 The semiconductors SOXX, now have a monthly bearish MACD divergence; daily and the weekly indicators posting even to prior tops (as of Friday’s close). 

No. 4 Components of biotech index XBI, are being shuffled around faster than deck chairs on the Titanic … or, the Olympic 🙂

Seems like a mad dash to add/remove, increase, reduce equities to prop things up. We’ll see how that turns out. Currently, XBI is right at resistance level, 86.50 – 87.0

Here’s just one example from an index, riddled with equities that have no P/E.

No. 5 Carvana is very close to posting new highs and potentially, running the stops.

No. 6 Has Darden Restaurants, topped out? 

The consumer is certainly tapped-out and no-one ‘needs’ a restaurant.

No. 7 Wheat is reversing; It is and has always been about the food supply.

No. 8 Gold, GLD, is currently not going higher (look at the divergences); silver (SLV) is in a major non-confirmation, down nearly – 55%, from all-time highs.

During the 1980s inflation, precious metals moved (upward) together.

Silver looks like it’s responding to the destruction/collapse of (economic) demand.

No. 9 American Tower (AMT), number two in the IYR index, posts a clear false breakout and reversal. 

If rates really are going (materially) lower, interest rate sensitive real estate should continue going higher, right?

No. 10 Which brings us to the bond market, TLT. 

Price action broke above established resistance, currently hovering above that level. 

It’s at The Danger Point®

We can see the set-up, a price action pattern repeated time and again, between the lower and upper blue lines, called a ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

While the media laughs at the bears, let’s just see how this all works out.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

When Costco Sells Gold

October 1, 2023 By in China, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, serpentza, The List, The Speck, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

The Mother of All Contrary Indicators

This has to be it, right?

Selling gold in a supermarket; an expensive commodity, peddled to the least informed and least capitalized segment of the public.

Once that market’s saturated, who’s left?

Going Down Memory Lane

It’s been nearly three years since this post.

From a long-term strategy standpoint, this site has been consistent; it’s the food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

The next shoe has yet to drop on how or what’s going to be used to extract (or confiscate) precious metals from the (stacking) proletariat.

With craziness by the day, anything can happen.

Gold: Turning Points & Technical

So far, it’s been three-for-three (here, here and here) identifying recent significant technical conditions and turning points for gold, GLD.

At this juncture, the dollar collapse, and the silver/gold bull launch are just not happening. It’s not there … something else is going on (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re in the middle of a massive sovereign bankruptcy (Time Stamp 7:10) that’s never happened before.

What’s going on behind the scenes is not visible to us.

However, from a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, those (hidden) actions and decisions show up on the chart(s).

Contrary Indicator

Remember Baghdad Bob?

Constantly giving press conferences discussing the strength of the military campaign when the exact opposite was true.

It may be so with gold as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

The local supermarket has decided, after a 22-year long bull market, it’s ‘safe’ for profit.

The hapless public is now standing at the gold kiosk; with face-mask firmly secured, arm bandaged from the latest booster, EV FOB in hand (or pocket), hypnotized into yet another mania.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas … Spike & Reversal

April 14, 2023 By in Food Supply, Livermore, Natural Gas, UNG, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Doing What It Does

Nat-Gas likes to spike at reversals.

In that sense, it’s similar to the silver futures market; it’s just what they do.

A spike does not guarantee reversal.

However, when we get one like today’s early morning (pre-market) session, it’s time to watch and position for what happens next (not advice, not a recommendation).

The futures chart link here, shows the early morning spike to 1.946. Now, we’re getting a recovery and test.

So, What’s Next?

The fundamentals say, nat-gas is lower on ‘over-supply’.

That may be true but here’s where it gets interesting; supply can be ‘destroyed‘ in an instant.

In the above article, the colloquial ‘ZeroHedge Guys’ with astute comments, shed light here and here.

Moving on to the chart of Nat-Gas we’re looking at UNG on a Fibonacci 8-Day, basis.

Natural Gas UNG, 8-Day

The chart shows a Wyckoff spring set-up in progress.

We’ve pushed below support.

Now, early in the session (11:20 a.m., EST), price action is inching its way back to test the resistance.

Positioning long at this juncture is potentially both strategic and tactical (not advice, not a recommendation).

Strategic in the sense, we’re operating in an environment of possible ‘shortage’ and ‘disruption’.

Tactical in the sense, nat-gas tends to reverse on a spike (either up or down).

Probabilities have put the odds to the upside.

Target Area(s)

If nat-gas gets to the target area shown, we can expect the requisite chaos to be part of the picture.

As Livermore frequently said, we’re looking at ‘what is’ and not what we want it to be.

If this is a medium to long-term move, we’re still in the very early stages.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Salt … or … Gold

April 9, 2023 By in Currencies, Dollar, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, Gold & Silver, ice-age-farmer, Salt, UUP, Wyckoff 2 Comments

‘Stacking’, The Right Thing?

“One ounce of gold for half kg of salt”

That’s what it cost for salt during the reign of the Khmer Rouge, as reported by a Cambodian in the comment section at this link.

One-half kilogram, is roughly 1.1 lbs., or 17.6 oz.

One ounce of gold for about 18-oz. of salt … sounds about right … if you’re starving.

Salt is essential for life; gold, not so much.

Strategy, First

This site’s primary focus is strategy.

It has adhered to the premise (for years), we’re in a situation that mimics Genesis 41

That means, it’s the corn and the grain, i.e., food, first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

A brief list for further review is, here, here, here, and here.

The ‘Price’ of Salt

For the ‘stackers’, consider this:

In our example above, the commentor said their family survived in part, because they had “100kg of salt”.

That amount equates to about 220 lbs.

Converting 1oz gold for (roughly) 18-oz. salt, at today’s gold prices, is about $392,000 ‘worth’ of salt.

When they came out other side, the salt may have been gone, but they had the gold. 🙂

Now, moving on to the chart.

Gold (GLD), Weekly

Gold is at a critical juncture.

We’re either in a potential ‘throw-over’ on the wedge formation (with reversal) or about to pressure higher into all-time highs (not advice, not a recommendation).

We see a rising (terminating) wedge, along with a decline in volume (thrust).

We’re at The Danger Point®

Gold’s price action does not need much of a push to go either way.

Then, The Dollar

Recall, from the dollar update (link here), there’s a possibility for it to decline from current levels; potentially setting up a Wyckoff spring condition.

A dollar decline would naturally provide a likely correlation for gold rising into new all-time highs.

If either one happens, there’s probably going to be panic.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279