Category Archives: Usual Suspects

Navigating The A.I., Minefield

February 4, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Nissam Taleb, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-04, SOXX, Usual Suspects

One Trade, At A Time

Even if we knew the A.I. bubble has burst, that it’s beginning a multi-year decline (or something worse), even if it was known, trading bubbles like this, is not easy (not advice, not a recommendation).

It might be simple, but it’s not easy.

With the market in chaos, we have the usual suspects out making things complicated; sharpening their pencils, attempting to connect financials with price action.

It always looks good on the surface.

However, as Nissam Talib said in The Black Swan (paraphrasing), he’d rather have a New York street smart, hoodlum reaping a windfall, than a pointy-headed PhD on the sidelines, pontificating about how the strategy’s not consistent with mathematics.

All of which brings us to the truth, price action itself.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily

Once again, the trendline has been adjusted based on price action.

The gap lower open from yesterday has been effectively closed during this session (as of 1:50 p.m., EST).

The expectation is for today’s high in the SOXX to hold; meaning, subsequent sessions will not post higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

For a short position, SOXX high of 217.27 (or the high for the day) is a good place for a stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bonds … The October Surprise

October 6, 2024 By in Bonds, Dollar, DRV, DRV-24-05, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, IYR, Prechter, Real Estate, TLT, Usual Suspects, UUP, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , ,

Will The ‘Wedge’, Close The ‘Spead’

Bonds traded down hard last Friday.

With the reversal now obvious (since the Fed announcement, September 18th), we have the usual suspects putting out ‘content’ (here and here) letting you know what’s already happened.

In Prechter’s book, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, he states, being part of the herd, is hard-wired into the brain.

Therefore, it takes diligent, consistent effort, to go against the mindless (limbic brain) herd if you’re going to make an objective observation.

So, let’s do just that, taking an objective look at the potential effects of the bond reversal.

Bonds (TLT proxy) began its reversal, rates higher, the day before the last Fed announcement.

The IYR, reached its high that Wednesday, 9/18/24.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

It’s been nearly three years since the all-time high in December, of 2021. The wedge shown below has been just over a year in the making.

The reversal action of the past few weeks can be seen in the ‘Throw-Over’ area of the chart.

If the wedge has been identified correctly, price action has now entered back into that formation.

Positioning

This post highlighted a short position was on the horizon.

This post confirmed.

This post connected the dots with the bond market.

That same post presented a tentative stop above break even on DRV-24-05 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trend or Not

We may know as early as tomorrow’s session (Monday), if IYR has established and confirmed a downtrend.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Lennar … At The Limit?

September 23, 2024 By in Interest Rates, LEN, Real Estate, Usual Suspects

Massive Down-Thrust

Has home builder Lennar (LEN) finally topped-out?

The (potential) big ruse, interest rates are heading lower. We have the usual suspects, spinning how soon we’ll have the next rate cut.

Well, back at the ranch, home builder Lennar Corp. (LEN), posted massive down-thrust, selling energy this past Friday, after Thursday’s post-market earnings release.

As we’ll see below, force on the move was potentially the second highest ever, in the history of trading for the company (data going back to 10/5/18).

Lennar Corporation LEN, Daily

At this point (11:27 a.m., EST) LEN is having an ‘inside day’, trading within Friday’s price action.

Inside days are typically preparation for another kind of day, an ‘outside’ day 🙂

That’s where the trend is confirmed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Usual Suspects

June 16, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Food Supply, Genesis 41, Interest Rates, James Grant, The Speck, Usual Suspects, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Can It Get Any More Stupid?

It’s been a while since rounding up The Usual Suspects.

However, like last time, the stupidity, misdirection, misinformation, outright falsehoods, overall grift and schtick, has got to the point where an update is needed.

We’ll start off by repeating No. 1 from the prior ‘suspects’ as it encompasses the whole genre of ‘non-thought’ by the public and financial press alike; readers of this post excepted, of course. 🙂

No 1. There (still) is no Fed Pivot. Seriously, have rates really, actually been lowered? Everyone has a huge case of ‘normalcy bias’. i.e., what the Fed did last time will happen this time.

The 40-year bond bull market from the ’80s, ended in 2020. We’re in a different paradigm now.

We’ll add in this updated post, James Grant, of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer.

He second’s the motion: The 40-year bond bull market, is over. Period.

No 2. It has always been about the food supply.

Food is boring and gets no ‘clicks’ on my grifting ‘silver, gold stacking’ website or YouTube, so I ignore it.

After all, my business, is to get more business.

Just a reminder, if anyone really wants (inedible) gold or silver (cheap), this might be a way to get it.

No 3. The market has ‘thinned out’ to an incredible degree.

Now, instead of The Mag 7, there are only three and one of them, is a washed-up gaming stock.

How apropos, when considering the opening paragraphs about the overall public and financial press.

No 4. Is Artificial Intelligence just another lie?

Looks like according to this, it can’t be trusted. Who could have guessed?

I’m shocked! Shocked!

No 5. Ruh-Roh Scooby, fake meat’s bad for your health.

Didn’t see that one coming.

No 6. Well, there could be a new ‘scarient‘ in the works.

However, looking at price action of the biotech sector, far below its all-time highs, the market itself, is saying ‘No, not this time.’

No 7. Could the S&P make it to 6,300?

After all, it’s all about the numbers, right?

The S&P bottomed at 666.67 on 3/9/09.

Summary

If there ever was a time as Wyckoff said, to ‘completely ignore the financial press’, this may be that time.

He also stated, ‘reading price action is hard, taking literally decades and many losses to master’, a skill which is never really complete.

As the ‘About‘ section states, this site is one leader’s perspective on that action; presenting it, in a strategically cognizant form.

As far as is known, no other site is doing the same.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part II

April 12, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, Inflation, SLV, Usual Suspects 1 Comment

More Volume … Less Net Distance

It’s been about a week since the last update on silver and the ‘usual suspects’ are out in force … again.

One of these days … Alice!

I like the metals as much as the next guy, but that doesn’t help when it’s time to stay focused on what the market’s (really) saying.

This week’s volume in SLV, was more than last week by about 16%, but net distance traveled (at the close) was far less … about 74%, less net travel … ruh, roh.

Silver SLV, Tracking ETF, Weekly

There’s a wide price spike for the week but it’s the close, that’s the important part, holding just above resistance.

Obviously, what happens next is important.

Typical market behavior for silver suggests we’re at or near a top and due for some kind of downside move if not a complete reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Different This Time

If this time really is different and we’re in the long-awaited hyperinflation move, we’ll probably find out soon.

If that’s the case, meaning, it really is different, one would expect the behavior of the metals to change; like silver holds its current level, moves higher, or starts congesting for another up-wave.

So, let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Usual Suspects

December 16, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, AMT, Biotech, BOIL, Bonds, CVNA, DRI, Federal Reserve, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IYR, LABD, Natural Gas, Real Estate, Semiconductors, SLV, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, TBT, TLT, Uneducated Economist, UNG, Usual Suspects, WEAT, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Everything Happening At Once?

Not in any particular order; not advice and not a recommendation.

No 1. There (still) is no Fed Pivot. Seriously, have rates really, actually been lowered? Everyone has a huge case of ‘normalcy bias’. i.e., what the Fed did last time will happen this time.

The 40-year bond bull market from the 80’s, ended in 2020. We’re in a different paradigm now.

No. 2 Natual Gas UNG, is reversing. We’ll see whether or not there’s going to be a supply disruption.

No. 3 The semiconductors SOXX, now have a monthly bearish MACD divergence; daily and the weekly indicators posting even to prior tops (as of Friday’s close). 

No. 4 Components of biotech index XBI, are being shuffled around faster than deck chairs on the Titanic … or, the Olympic 🙂

Seems like a mad dash to add/remove, increase, reduce equities to prop things up. We’ll see how that turns out. Currently, XBI is right at resistance level, 86.50 – 87.0

Here’s just one example from an index, riddled with equities that have no P/E.

No. 5 Carvana is very close to posting new highs and potentially, running the stops.

No. 6 Has Darden Restaurants, topped out? 

The consumer is certainly tapped-out and no-one ‘needs’ a restaurant.

No. 7 Wheat is reversing; It is and has always been about the food supply.

No. 8 Gold, GLD, is currently not going higher (look at the divergences); silver (SLV) is in a major non-confirmation, down nearly – 55%, from all-time highs.

During the 1980s inflation, precious metals moved (upward) together.

Silver looks like it’s responding to the destruction/collapse of (economic) demand.

No. 9 American Tower (AMT), number two in the IYR index, posts a clear false breakout and reversal. 

If rates really are going (materially) lower, interest rate sensitive real estate should continue going higher, right?

No. 10 Which brings us to the bond market, TLT. 

Price action broke above established resistance, currently hovering above that level. 

It’s at The Danger Point®

We can see the set-up, a price action pattern repeated time and again, between the lower and upper blue lines, called a ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

While the media laughs at the bears, let’s just see how this all works out.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Market ‘Tests’ & ‘Instability’

May 2, 2023 By in David Weis, GDXJ, JDST, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, SPY, Usual Suspects 1 Comment

Taking The Helm

‘We have assumed control …’

For the mining sector we’re about to find out if it’s bulls or bears.

With today’s overall (S&P, Dow, QQQ, etc.) down market and the press screaming in hysterical panic at the start of the day, you’d think the market had collapsed 50% or more.

The last update (over the weekend) had this to say about the S&P (emphasis added):

“So, here we are: The market (SPY) has rallied over the past week, giving the illusion that all is well.

However, it too is now in up-thrust (reversal) position.“

So, the SPY declines by just over 1%, everyone loses their head and starts talking about CBDC.

Moving on to the ‘knee-jerk’ sector for the day, let’s look at the miners and specifically GDXJ.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily Close

Admittedly, the prior update was unsure whether or not this sector had its up-thrust reversal ‘test’.

Well, now we know.

The chart above has all the Usual Suspects.

We see the spring to up-thrust repeating pattern.

Then, a steady decline from the up-thrust and today’s short-sharp test or as the late David Weis used to call it, a ‘gut check’.

At this point the market’s unstable.

We’ll know soon if somehow we’re on to new highs or if this was the last gasp of a bull move withing an overall, years-long, bear market.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate’s Potemkin Village

January 28, 2023 By in Federal Reserve, IYR, Prechter, Usual Suspects, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

The ‘Pain Trade’ = Opportunity

‘Some of the best market traders are former Marines.’, Prechter

That’s a paraphrased quote from Robert Prechter Jr., given during an interview in the early 1990s.

The inference: Marines succeed at trading because they have been conditioned to endure and perform while being in pain … physical and mental.

On the other hand, the financial press, being ever so helpful during this unprecedented collapse, is all too happy to help analyze the situation by catastrophizing on how ‘painful’ the market feels.

We’re going to be ‘bathing in lava‘, according to them.

If we go to Jerimiah Babe at time stamp 1:36, the mainstream press is still touting ‘The consumer is strong’.

In other videos, Babe, has shown how devastated the real estate market really is … ‘boots on the ground’ reports at vacant malls, empty parking lots and new (unoccupied) housing developments that stretch for miles.

With that backdrop, let’s look at what the price action of real estate is telling us … is the consumer strong?

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

There are so many things happening in IYR, it will probably take several updates.

At this point, price action exhibits the following:

Currently in Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ condition, potential reversal

On a close basis, IYR has retraced 38.2% of its entire move.

Repeating trend line(s) underside test.

Trading channel that’s a Fibonacci 34 (-1) weeks wide.

For the week just ended, Force Index is divergent (54.7%, weaker) than the last push higher.

We’ll look at the first three of those, below.

As the market came to a close on Friday, price action pushed through established resistance (and axis line) to end the week higher.

Price action’s in Up-Thrust condition, The Danger Point®

Next, we have on a close basis, a Fibonacci 38.2% retrace as well as testing the underside of a resistance/trend-line.

In the next update, we’ll discuss the possible trading channel and the pressures (Force Index) behind the last move higher.

There Will Be Great ‘Wringing Of Hands’

As always, anything can happen in the markets. The above is not advice or a recommendation.

Next week, we can expect the Usual Suspects to come out and provide their ‘expert analysis’ on what the Fed is likely to do or not.

The Fed on the other hand, has repeatedly said what’s it’s going to do; that is, raise rates.

Interest rate sensitive real estate already appears ready for reversal.

Let’s see what happens. next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Breakout or Breakdown

January 13, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The Speck, Usual Suspects, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

The Usual Suspects

During the past three months, biotech index SPBIO, has been oscillating, coiling like a spring; preparing for a dramatic move.

Then yesterday (Thursday), there’s an upside launch.

We now have price action instability; either the bulls or the bears are in control.

At this point, we don’t know who has the upper hand.

However, based on the list of recent news items below, it does not look good for the bulls.

Biotech’s Frankenstein

Within the past few days, we have this:

Deadline Passes For Pfizer To Submit Results Of Post-Vaccination Heart Inflammation Study To US Regulators

FDA Deviated From Normal Process In Pfizer Vaccine Approval, Documents Show

Former Employees Sue ESPN After Being Fired For COVID Vaccine Refusal

Lead Author Of Research On Pfizer And Moderna Trials Warns COVID Vaccinations Must Be Stopped

Pentagon Drops COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate For Troops

Let’s see if the market’s ready to hand it to this sector. What’s the price action telling us.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

The weekly chart shows the potetial breakout.

However, since we’re looking at this from a ‘going short’ perspective (not advice, not a recommendation), the chart following this one is inverted.

When we invert the chart, it takes on a whole different look.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly (Inverted)

If price action’s spent over three months getting where support has been penetrated only to have it fail into a reversal, the ensuing move has massive potential.

In Wyckoff terms, it’s cause and effect.

The ’cause’ has been three months of congestion. The ‘effect’ is a potential long duration, or wide volatility move.

Before The Open

It’s twenty minutes before the open and 3X leveraged inverse fund LABD, is trading higher by about +3.5%.

This is normal behavior whether we have a reversal or not.

One last check of ZeroHedge, before releasing this post turns up this:

Senator Questions CDC On Why It Claimed No ‘Unexpected Safety Signals’ For COVID Vaccines

The ‘monster’ continues to grow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Usual Suspects

October 15, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dr. Elder, Gwen Olsen, LABD, LABD-22-08, Livermore, Positions, SPBIO, The Epoch Times, The Speck, Usual Suspects, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Special Biotech Edition

Bogart

An immense flood of data; research reports, lawsuits, expose articles and anecdotal evidence; every day, multiple times a day, something new.

Has the biotech technical (finally) lined up with the fundamental?

Those fundamentals are farther down but first, we’ll discuss the technical.

As a reminder, sometimes charts are inverted during analysis. This ‘trick’ was discovered years ago and is based on techniques used by Dr. Alexander Elder.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly Close (Inverted)

We’ve taken the weekly closing chart of SPBIO ($SPSIBI, on StockCharts) and inverted it to mimic the action of inverse fund LABD.

The index has no volume; so LABD is used instead.

The magenta arrow shows the pivot point for the index, corresponds will all-time record volume on leveraged inverse LABD.

Next, we’ll get closer-in and look at the ‘pivot’ on the hourly chart (inverted).

SPBIO, Hourly (Inverted).

The magenta arrows show successive positions (Livermore ‘probes’) entered (via LABD) before the main entry @ LABD 22.99, which was 90% of position size up to that point.

The next day (Friday) had a gap-lower open that was quickly reversed. Position size was increased by another 5%, at LABD 22.29 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Effective position equates to LABD 23.17

Price action pulled away steadily from the early morning levels, suggesting a sustainable reversal.

The Fundamentals

Some of this stuff, you just can’t make up.

Listed in somewhat chronological order, here they are (not an exhaustive list).

No. 1

Pfizer hires 600 to help document adverse events. Wasn’t it supposed to be ‘safe and effective’?

No. 2

Pilot Shortage

Fired/quit because they refuse to get ‘protection’.

A possible corollary to what’s happened, via injection, we have this.

No. 3

Pfizer, nobody wants their product … after the rollout.

No. 4

Who could it be?

Previously unknown (or rare) problems and illness now starting to accelerate.

No. 5

We’re here to help.

No. 6

You mean, it was all a lie?

No. 7

The real reason for getting ‘tested’?

No. 8

What did the media know and when did they know it?

No. 9

It’s still a ‘suggestion‘ but the payouts to family members are real.

No. 10

It’s over … and then it’s not.

No. 11

We’ll keep it quiet, so no feelings get hurt.

No. 12

How bad is your batch? Let’s see.

No. 13

You mean, it was never tested? I’m shocked.

No. 14

After all that, maybe we can give it another shot.

No. 15

A potential infinite number of complications … nothing to see here.

No. 16

Getting away with it? Not so fast.

No. 17

Just had a heart attack? We can help.

No. 18

Limited Hangout? You decide.

No. 19

Lastly, this is what it’s really all about.

Recorded years ago. Did her ‘prophecy’ come true?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279