Category Archives: The Speck

Biotech … Breakout or Breakdown

January 13, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The Speck, Usual Suspects, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

The Usual Suspects

During the past three months, biotech index SPBIO, has been oscillating, coiling like a spring; preparing for a dramatic move.

Then yesterday (Thursday), there’s an upside launch.

We now have price action instability; either the bulls or the bears are in control.

At this point, we don’t know who has the upper hand.

However, based on the list of recent news items below, it does not look good for the bulls.

Biotech’s Frankenstein

Within the past few days, we have this:

Deadline Passes For Pfizer To Submit Results Of Post-Vaccination Heart Inflammation Study To US Regulators

FDA Deviated From Normal Process In Pfizer Vaccine Approval, Documents Show

Former Employees Sue ESPN After Being Fired For COVID Vaccine Refusal

Lead Author Of Research On Pfizer And Moderna Trials Warns COVID Vaccinations Must Be Stopped

Pentagon Drops COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate For Troops

Let’s see if the market’s ready to hand it to this sector. What’s the price action telling us.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

The weekly chart shows the potetial breakout.

However, since we’re looking at this from a ‘going short’ perspective (not advice, not a recommendation), the chart following this one is inverted.

When we invert the chart, it takes on a whole different look.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly (Inverted)

If price action’s spent over three months getting where support has been penetrated only to have it fail into a reversal, the ensuing move has massive potential.

In Wyckoff terms, it’s cause and effect.

The ’cause’ has been three months of congestion. The ‘effect’ is a potential long duration, or wide volatility move.

Before The Open

It’s twenty minutes before the open and 3X leveraged inverse fund LABD, is trading higher by about +3.5%.

This is normal behavior whether we have a reversal or not.

One last check of ZeroHedge, before releasing this post turns up this:

Senator Questions CDC On Why It Claimed No ‘Unexpected Safety Signals’ For COVID Vaccines

The ‘monster’ continues to grow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Claus & Effect, The Next Wave

December 24, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Catherine Austin Fitts, CVNA, NFLX, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, TGT, The Speck, Useful Idiots, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Unprecedented … Again

Nefarious forces operate in distraction and darkness.

“And this is the condemnation, that light is come into the world, and men loved darkness rather than light, because their deeds were evil.”

The year 2021, was the year everyone (except children) showed their true colors; they made their decision, knowingly or not, for darkness or light.

This year, 2022, is where the effects (or ‘side effects’) of that decision began to take hold.

Now, as 2023 approaches, we’re likely to move into the realm of unprecedented chaos and collapse.

As if on cue, under the cloak of this week’s holiday distraction, we have what’s possibly the next wave.

This could be the reason as presented in the last update, why biotech appears to be in the early stages of disconnecting from the overall market.

That separation may continue or not; price action is always the final arbiter.

The ‘Woke’ Go Broke

The useful idiots that comprise the ‘woke’ business crowd may be in for the biggest surprise in the coming year.

If there is one overriding theme to keep in mind for 2023, this could be it.

Separate enclaves are now forming of those who have not, will not, and are not going to go along with the ever more unbelievable narratives.

Here is a link to just one of those enclaves.

As a digression; in Texas, we’re just now coming out of yet another record-breaking cold spell.

That’s two, never before seen record breaking low temp events within the past three years!

How does that fit with the global warming narrative?

Anyone awake knows full well what’s going on … and it’s not global warming.

Who’s On First: NFLX or TGT?

Now that vending machine Carvana (CVNA), is out of the way, who’s next?

Partly as a result of economic decline and partly from the decision to take consumer spending elsewhere, Netflix and Target now appear ready to continue their implosion.

More on their technical chart conditions in the next update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Disconnects & The Claus

December 23, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, IWM, LABD, Positions, Russell 2000, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The Speck, TZA, TZA-22-02, Vernon Coleman, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Naughty or Nice ?

Biotech price action’s disconnecting from the rest of the market.

Around the last Fed meeting, biotech separated from the major indices, heading the opposite direction, i.e., sideways to higher.

We’ll see that as we get into the snapshots of the hourly charts (below), but first several clues on why biotech (so far) isn’t going along.

The Next Plan Rolls Out

First up is this, just out on ZeroHedge.

It appears the next push is on … and the target is the kids. Another wave of ‘protection’ is certain to boost profits.

Note: Those commenting on ZH have been ‘awake’ from the start; an invaluable resource.

Next up is this, just out on BrandNewTube; another clear thinker that helps ‘tie it all together’.

Is this the explanation for biotech’s current behavior?

Strictly speaking and from a Wyckoff perspective, we won’t know the real reason for a move until it’s nearing the end.

What we can see, is that character of price action has changed (again).

With that, we’ll look at the 3X, leveraged inverse funds of two indices, Russell 2000 (TZA) and SPBIO (LABD).

TZA & LABD, Hourly

The disconnect has been a recent observation.

We’ll drill right down to the hourly and put the charts one on top of the other.

We can see that while inverse TZA, is now back up to the pre-squeeze high, inverse LABD, is far below that level.

That’s not to say things can’t change quickly.

For now, however, there may be something else going on that’s keeping the sector buoyant and suppressing the LABD, inverse fund.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Pandora & Twitter, The Box Opens

November 29, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-12, Positions, SPBIO, The Speck, Twitter, Van Metre, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Fuel, For The Downside

With Twitter’s lifting of the ban on truth, linked here, we may be entering the next phase of collapse.

Whether or not it’s going to immediately show up in market price action, is unknown at this point.

Nascent Reversal?

The last update identified the markets were poised for potential reversal.

Two days later and we’re mostly down; that’s in spite of the supposed positive ‘machine’ bias as presented at this link.

A positive machine-market could still happen (data released tomorrow) but for now, price action itself, is posting lower; this is the crux of Wyckoff analysis … ‘What is the market saying about itself’.

In line with the truth being let out, not surprisingly, chief cook and bottle washer, biotech, is having a rough time.

Biotech Bear Market

Prior posts have documented the bear flag that’s been forming for over nine-weeks. Now, we have an apparent coiled action, ready for the downside.

Since we’re short this sector via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation), we’re going to look at LABD, to identify the potential.

SPBIO, 3X Leveraged Inverse, LABD

We have three charts, all depicting daily action.

The first (un-marked) chart is close-in and it looks like a mess. That is, until you put in trend lines and a Fibonacci count as shown on the second chart.

Adding the mark-up.

Then, keeping those trend lines intact, pulling farther out, we see the potential if there’s a sustained move.

Price action has been trading in a tight range over the past eight-days. Let’s see what happens next.

Positioning

Not advice, not a recommendation.

Short position in SPBIO via LABD; details are as follows:

LABD-22-12:

Entry @ 19.9194, 20.91***: Stop @ 19.28***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Set For ‘Implosion’ … Biotech

November 24, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, AMGN, BEAM, Biotech, FATE, GILD, LABD, LABD-22-10, Positions, SPBIO, The Speck, TWST, VRTX, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

IBB & SPBIO, at The Danger Point®

Each one in their own way, as we’ll see below.

From a Wyckoff standpoint, we’ve identified one of, if not the sector(s) most likely to decline the farthest and fastest in a bear market.

Without question, biotech contains the overriding ‘elephant’ that’s literally affecting everything else on the planet (not advice, not a recommendation).

As stated in the tag-line above, the two indices in question are IBB (large cap) and SPBIO (small cap).

IBB, has Amgen, Gilead and Vertex, as the top three while SPBIO, has more speculative (i.e., losing more money) Beam, Twist and Fate.

Index IBB has $342.8-Bil, combined for the top three while SPBIO has only $6.5-Bil, combined.

So, it makes sense the more speculative ‘cash burning inferno‘ TWST, is in the SPBIO. 🙂

On to the charts

IBB Weekly

IBB has formed a decisive resistance area as shown.

The fourth attempt which pushed above the prior three levels (and retraced), puts IBB, at The Danger Point®

Next up is the SPBIO.

It’s much weaker and thus the focus for any short opportunities (not advice, not a recommendation).

SPBIO ($SPSIBI), Weekly

While IBB, has moved higher, to an up-thrust over the past nine weeks, SPBIO during that time, has languished.

Note: The chart scales are identical. Scrolling up and down, one can visually see the weakness of SPBIO.

SPBIO, also reached all-time highs, six months before IBB.

Getting Closer-In: SPBIO

We’re going to look at the hourly chart.

SPBIO, Hourly

Those who are long-time visitors to this site will instantly recognize the set-up: ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust‘

This Friday, tomorrow, is a shortened trading day.

There’s a potential we’ll have a small blip higher into the up-thrust zone.

Conversely, for 3X Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, the potential is for a temporary move lower.

Leveraged Inverse LABD, Hourly

This is how it looks for LABD.

Note for the inverse fund, the ‘spring’ on SPBIO, becomes the ‘up-thrust’ on LABD.

Positioning

Not advice, not a recommendation

Wednesday’s downside action in LABD, resulted in the LABD-22-10, position being stopped out with an overall gain around 7.12%.

There have already been several disruptions to the company’s trading platform and data line over the past month and we’ve not even got started with market chaos.

Recall that just recently, the Canadian market went off-line for several hours. We should consider these events the ‘norm’, on a go-forward basis.

As a result, a standing order (in the market) is in place to go long LABD (short SPBIO) at the execution price of LABD @ 18.62.

That order may or may not be modified as we go into the open tomorrow morning.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Crypto Contagion …”Contained”

November 14, 2022 By in 2007 - 2008, Banking, Bernanke, Bitcoin, Crypto, Lehman, Michael Cowan, The Epoch Times, The Speck, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Where Have We Heard That, Before ?

Is the Genie out of the bottle?

For those who weren’t around for the last melt-down, here’s a brief refresher; links here and here … enjoy.

Of course, the amount of real damage and interconnecting links, are not yet fully known … data is still forthcoming.

However, the backpedaling has already started … ‘Let’s rebuild‘.

How about, ‘Let’s get real.’

As Michael Cowan has said: ‘This is like Lehman, but for Crypto’ … ‘Over $2-Trillion has been destroyed, just like that!’

We’re still in the destruction phase. Any ‘rebuilding’ whatever that means, is probably years down the road.

Those In The Know

Wyckoff said a century ago: ‘Somebody always knows something, and that ‘something’ shows up on the tape’.

This is where understanding price action is critical.

We in the Serfdom, won’t know the details until long after the big players have cashed out or have been bailed out.

Why would it be any different than last time?

However, their moves will show up on the tape. That will provide clues on how or where to take action (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Elephant

All of this is happening on top of there being an elephant.

For those who somehow still don’t know what’s going on, here’s just one report, among many.

Positions: (courtesy only, not advice).

It’s just after the open (9:40 a.m., EST) and both positions listed below, have opened higher.

LABD-22-10:

Entry @ 18.1398: Stop @ 16.83

JDST-22-05

Entry @ 9.1666: Stop @ 8.79

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Market Set-Up … This Week

November 6, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Food Supply, GDX, Genesis 41, GLD, GOLD, Green Energy, ice-age-farmer, IWM, IYR, LABD, LABD-22-09, Positions, Prechter, QQQ, Real Estate, Russell 2000, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, The Speck, TSLA, XLF, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

What To Watch … Biotech, Gold, Real Estate, Tesla

Biotech:

There’re a lot of moving parts to biotech and it’s like a game of chicken.

Is there going to be another ‘planned’ event pulled out of the bag that requires ‘protection’ or will this side (and this one) win-out before that happens?

Price action’s always the final arbiter and right now, it’s positing lower.

Gold:

Gold (GLD) ‘blipped’ higher on Friday and the usual suspects are out touting the hyperinflation narrative.

Owning (some) precious metals seems to be a good thing.

However, the public constantly knee-jerks into this sector and is absolutely rabid in their behavior (i.e., silver stockpiles are running out!!!).

It suggests at least, there’s something else afoot.

Prechter published in the early 2000’s, Central Banks, are followers, not leaders. The fact they are buying gold at this point, may be a contrary indicator.

Talk about going against the herd. 🙂

Over and again, it’s the boring (does not generate ‘clicks’) food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

Real Estate:

What can be said?

It’s the largest manufactured bubble in world history and it has already popped.

Thinking it’s all going to sort itself out in a year or two is delusional. We’ve probably got decades of bear market.

Tesla:

Anyone with an anode of research capability, knows the whole EV premise, is based on a falsehood.

However, that fact is probably not what’s going to bring Tesla (and the rest of the market) down.

Let’s stop for a moment and consider the above link which has been available for nearly four-years.

How many views? Just 9,824 (as of this post)

That equates to only 0.003% of the U.S. population.

As the global supply chains implode, getting parts and having stable infrastructure (i.e., electricity) will probably be the defining factor.

Now, on to the charts.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily Close

The following sessions will let us know if we’re at the right edge of the downtrend line.

We’ve already had an up-thrust reversal and a test of that reversal. last Friday was lower … probabilities point down.

Gold GLD, Daily

Looking at the chart on the strategic, longer term, Friday’s blip is hardly noticeable. We’ve already presented how this could be a minor up-thrust (reversal) in itself.

To keep the upside intact, price action must remain and continue above current levels.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

Real estate may be working its way into an up-thrust condition. As shown, Fibonacci Day 21 from the October 13th, low is this coming Thursday, the 10th.

According to the Economic Calendar there are several potential catalysts that may push the price above resistance (temporarily).

Tesla TSLA, Weekly

The short-term look has been presented here.

Longer term downside potential is disconcerting.

Major support near the 25-level.

Summary

When we look at last Friday’s action (table below), it’s clear SPBIO, was not part of the upside party.

Of course, we won’t know if it’s’ the downside leader until subsequent sessions.

In the meantime, the market positioning remains unchanged.

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

LABD-22-09:

Special Note:

This sector and leveraged inverse LABD are highly volatile. Character of the market can change at any time.

LABD may be exited without notice.

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, 21.23, 21.65 Stop @ 19.41

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Relentless, Collapse …

November 3, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Jerimiah Babe, LABD, LABD-22-09, Positions, SPBIO, The Speck, TMF, TMF-22-01 1 Comment

Jerrimiah Babe, Calls It

In probably his best video update since he stared in early 2015, he lays out the details of what’s ahead.

Although not well versed in the markets (and he says so), he has enough experience, life-knowledge, to understand the current potential and likely outcome.

That is, ‘relentless collapse’.

Those of us who have been getting ready for years, know that we still aren’t ready. How can anyone be fully ready for a complete systems breakdown.

One ‘system’ that’s set for implosion and has been since before ‘The Speck’, is biotech.

Biotech: Cue The Implosion

It’s been an on again, off again, back on, and so on, with this index (SPBIO).

Every day now, sometimes multiple times a day, we see the effects of their ‘protection’. Wheels are in motion and we’re most likely just getting started … for decades to come.

Yesterday’s Fed announcement, may have (finally) provided the up-thrust and reversal needed to get this index in a sustained down move.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily Close

The daily chart shows the up-thrust test and reversal.

We’ll get into downside potential(s) in an upcoming post.

For now, the positioning remains unchanged (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

TMF-22-01:

Entry @ 7.166, Stop @ 6.77

LABD-22-09:

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, Stop @ 18.69

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Market Set-Up … This Week

October 23, 2022 By in Bonds, Catherine Austin Fitts, DRV, DRV-22-05, GLD, Gold & Silver, IYR, Positions, Real Estate, Scott Walters, SLV, The Speck, TLT, TMF, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

What To Watch … Gold, Bonds, & Real Estate

First off, ‘Goldman‘ says melt-up.

Not to be outdone, we have this ‘me too’ melt-up article as well.

Let’s not forget, all the ‘Fed must do something’ rumors and feigned concern by its members.

If anyone really wants to know the big picture, the overall plan (a wide majority do not), this interview may be the best explanation to-date.

With all of that, we certainly could get some kind of rally in the coming week. We’ll let the price action speak for itself.

As a reminder, Wyckoff analysis does not concern itself with press releases, rumors or ‘fundamentals’; Wyckoff himself, determined based on price action alone, they have no material effect on market movement.

In his words, ‘other forces are at work’, and it’s those forces that interest us.

Gold & Silver

As said in this update, gold (GLD) was just ‘ticks’ away from posting a new monthly low. In fact, it got just 0.24-pts, from a new low before rebounding.

Of course, each time we get any kind of rally in the metals, there’s the usual hysteria. Even though for the past seven months and counting, those rallies occur at lower and lower levels … i.e., a bear market.

Shown below, it’s in a trading channel with price action at the right-side channel line.

Gold (GLD) Weekly

The chart below gets closer-in.

From left-most contact point on the channel to the initial contact on the right side is a Fibonacci 13-weeks.

Also note, the weekly high posted at the center line is a Fibonacci 5-weeks from the left-most contact.

Highly emotional markets tend to adhere to Fibonacci until either the emotion wears off or ‘everybody’ recognizes the structure.

Obviously, to keep the channel intact, a lower open (and lower action) at the next session is needed.

Silver (SLV) has already been discussed in this update and this one.

Bond (TLT) Capitulation ?

Was this past Friday the day?

Gap-down trading on huge volume.

Looking at the daily chart of TLT below, Friday’s level of (down) volume has occurred only three times in the past three years.

Each time, there was a near immediate rebound or in the case of March 2021, the rebound came several weeks later.

Bonds (TLT) Daily

Moving in closer, we see the possibility of an ‘island-gap’ at the next open.

What could drive capital into the bond market?

Well, how about a ‘shock’ or continued market melt-down (not advice, not a recommendation).

A quick check of the local newsfeed (as of 12:45 p.m., EST) shows nothing on the horizon other than usual nuclear attack threats, power outages, child mutilation protests, marauding bears and the disarmament of Canadians.

Nothing to see here …

Real Estate

There is no mistake, events in real estate are happening at the fastest pace in recorded history.

As Scott Walters put it, over 10-million people bought into the ‘work from home’ hype and got themselves instantly (nearly) upside down in their transaction.

Now, the layoffs start.

Real Estate IYR, 3-Day Close

Zoom-in, on the channel

As the last update said, we’ll know soon enough if there is more upside or if last Friday was it, and the downdraft continues.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Usual Suspects

October 15, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dr. Elder, Gwen Olsen, LABD, LABD-22-08, Livermore, Positions, SPBIO, The Epoch Times, The Speck, Usual Suspects, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Special Biotech Edition

Bogart

An immense flood of data; research reports, lawsuits, expose articles and anecdotal evidence; every day, multiple times a day, something new.

Has the biotech technical (finally) lined up with the fundamental?

Those fundamentals are farther down but first, we’ll discuss the technical.

As a reminder, sometimes charts are inverted during analysis. This ‘trick’ was discovered years ago and is based on techniques used by Dr. Alexander Elder.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly Close (Inverted)

We’ve taken the weekly closing chart of SPBIO ($SPSIBI, on StockCharts) and inverted it to mimic the action of inverse fund LABD.

The index has no volume; so LABD is used instead.

The magenta arrow shows the pivot point for the index, corresponds will all-time record volume on leveraged inverse LABD.

Next, we’ll get closer-in and look at the ‘pivot’ on the hourly chart (inverted).

SPBIO, Hourly (Inverted).

The magenta arrows show successive positions (Livermore ‘probes’) entered (via LABD) before the main entry @ LABD 22.99, which was 90% of position size up to that point.

The next day (Friday) had a gap-lower open that was quickly reversed. Position size was increased by another 5%, at LABD 22.29 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Effective position equates to LABD 23.17

Price action pulled away steadily from the early morning levels, suggesting a sustainable reversal.

The Fundamentals

Some of this stuff, you just can’t make up.

Listed in somewhat chronological order, here they are (not an exhaustive list).

No. 1

Pfizer hires 600 to help document adverse events. Wasn’t it supposed to be ‘safe and effective’?

No. 2

Pilot Shortage

Fired/quit because they refuse to get ‘protection’.

A possible corollary to what’s happened, via injection, we have this.

No. 3

Pfizer, nobody wants their product … after the rollout.

No. 4

Who could it be?

Previously unknown (or rare) problems and illness now starting to accelerate.

No. 5

We’re here to help.

No. 6

You mean, it was all a lie?

No. 7

The real reason for getting ‘tested’?

No. 8

What did the media know and when did they know it?

No. 9

It’s still a ‘suggestion‘ but the payouts to family members are real.

No. 10

It’s over … and then it’s not.

No. 11

We’ll keep it quiet, so no feelings get hurt.

No. 12

How bad is your batch? Let’s see.

No. 13

You mean, it was never tested? I’m shocked.

No. 14

After all that, maybe we can give it another shot.

No. 15

A potential infinite number of complications … nothing to see here.

No. 16

Getting away with it? Not so fast.

No. 17

Just had a heart attack? We can help.

No. 18

Limited Hangout? You decide.

No. 19

Lastly, this is what it’s really all about.

Recorded years ago. Did her ‘prophecy’ come true?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279