Category Archives: Wyckoff

Another ‘Data Point’, Collapse

January 5, 2023 By in 1907, AMZN, Baltic Dry Index, DRIP, DRIP-23-01, Livermore, Oil, Oil & Gas, Wyckoff, XOP, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Baltic Dry Index

‘The longer the delay, the bigger the break.’

That was Jesse Livermore’s assessment of the market just before The Panic of 1907.

That Was, Then

Back then, it was money spent on The Boer War, tight financial conditions and extreme overvaluations.

Looks more and more, like today

It’s been this site’s opinion for about a year (now supported by data), that we’ve gone straight past recession, into economic collapse and depression.

And Now, This

Another data point confirming the ‘depression’ scenario is this, just out from ZeroHedge: The Baltic Dry Index had its largest one-day collapse on record.

As if to drive it home; demand is in free-fall as Amazon, just announced plans to fire 18,000 workers.

From a strategic standpoint, collapsing shipping demand means collapsing fuel demand.

Which brings us to the sector of the day, Oil & Gas

Oil & Gas Sector XOP, Weekly

The last update, showed the weekly chart has reversed down and stayed down.

XOP is penetrating support, now at The Danger Point®.

The daily chart has more detail; we’re hovering at support, testing the right side trendline (again).

Providing some (minor) upward bias for the day is this report on WTI (West Texas Intermediate).

Oil & Gas Sector XOP, Daily

It’s 1:31 p.m., EST and XOP, has not posted a new daily high (it’s very close).

Doing so, would weaken the downtrend case and point probabilities to a Wyckoff spring move higher.

Summary

Demand is rapidly collapsing on many fronts and the WTI report linked above uses the word ‘tepid’.

That may be completely inaccurate or misleading when considering the demand for shipping has seen its worst down-day, on record.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … Day ’21’

December 29, 2022 By in DRV, IYR, Real Estate, Wyckoff 2 Comments

Posts, Next Session

The next session will be a Fibonacci 21 days, from the IYR, intermediate high, printed on December 1st.

From that high, price action has declined, then bottomed, and is now in a retrace.

That retrace/test may have competed today with a weak attempt at new daily highs or we could see something more definitive tomorrow.

From a data release (i.e., ‘catalyst’) standpoint, the Chicago PMI, is scheduled for 9:45 a.m., EST.

Let’s go to the daily chart of IYR.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

The intermediate high is marked, and we see price action decline and now testing resistance underside.

If we go further down to the hourly chart … that’s where it gets interesting.

Real Estate IYR, Hourly

It’s clear we have a well-defined resistance that’s just below a 38.2%, retrace level.

Obviously, a push above this level and then reversal, is the definition of a Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’.

Summary

Fibonacci timeframes are somewhat approximate. If everybody’s waiting for it, it’s not likely to happen.

That’s why some Fibonacci reversal dates are either a day early or a day late … just to keep everyone guessing.

With that in mind, the test may have completed today, or it could tomorrow (Day 21), or the first trading day of 2023.

In an ideal scenario, we get a blip higher (above resistance) at the open tomorrow that’s quickly retraced (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Disconnects & The Claus

December 23, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, IWM, LABD, Positions, Russell 2000, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The Speck, TZA, TZA-22-02, Vernon Coleman, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Naughty or Nice ?

Biotech price action’s disconnecting from the rest of the market.

Around the last Fed meeting, biotech separated from the major indices, heading the opposite direction, i.e., sideways to higher.

We’ll see that as we get into the snapshots of the hourly charts (below), but first several clues on why biotech (so far) isn’t going along.

The Next Plan Rolls Out

First up is this, just out on ZeroHedge.

It appears the next push is on … and the target is the kids. Another wave of ‘protection’ is certain to boost profits.

Note: Those commenting on ZH have been ‘awake’ from the start; an invaluable resource.

Next up is this, just out on BrandNewTube; another clear thinker that helps ‘tie it all together’.

Is this the explanation for biotech’s current behavior?

Strictly speaking and from a Wyckoff perspective, we won’t know the real reason for a move until it’s nearing the end.

What we can see, is that character of price action has changed (again).

With that, we’ll look at the 3X, leveraged inverse funds of two indices, Russell 2000 (TZA) and SPBIO (LABD).

TZA & LABD, Hourly

The disconnect has been a recent observation.

We’ll drill right down to the hourly and put the charts one on top of the other.

We can see that while inverse TZA, is now back up to the pre-squeeze high, inverse LABD, is far below that level.

That’s not to say things can’t change quickly.

For now, however, there may be something else going on that’s keeping the sector buoyant and suppressing the LABD, inverse fund.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Repeating (Short) Set-Up

December 21, 2022 By in David Weis, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

At The Extreme

Gold is at the extreme … again.

It’s also posting a repeating pattern; indicating a short set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

As presented over a year ago, that set-up is defined as what’s called (in Wyckoff terms), a spring-to-up-thrust.

Meaning, price action has a repeating tendency to go from one trade set-up to another.

We’ll go to the daily chart.

Gold GLD, Daily

The Changing of Hands, is included because as of yet, that (downside) reversal has not been decisively negated.

There’s no downside capitulation volume; indicating we’re on the other side (bullish side) of the current downtrend.

Now gold is at The Danger Point®. The ephemeral place where risk is least; price action can (easily) go either way.

So The Question Is, Which Way?

Here’s one perspective that’s reasonably balanced.

The theory is all about Central Banks … ok, if it works.

From a personal (trading) standpoint, the fundamental approach was abandoned years, if not decades ago.

Moving closer-in on the daily, we have the following.

Price action is struggling at resistance (upper blue line).

As stated in a prior update, if GLD, can’t hold and move above this level, it’s an indicator of potential serious trouble to the downside.

Of course, it goes without saying, the miners, GDX, GDXJ, are at similar danger points.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Fake Data, Fake Market, Real Price

December 17, 2022 By in CVNA, Great Depression, Neil McCoy-Ward, NFLX, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

‘Head Fake’ … 1-million Jobs

Within the mirage of fake data, one thing’s not fake, the price.

The latest revelation about fake data, comes at this link, telling us something we already knew; the jobs data is a complete mirage.

What must be over a year ago, Neil McCoy–Ward, presented a series whereby he reviewed several individual, personal diaries, from The Great Depression.

From that series, no-one (in the public) seemed to know the extent of unemployment until much later.

The numbers were ‘hidden’ back then, just like now; what a coincidence.

The search, and need for the ‘truth’, becomes more clear by the day. In the markets, truth is the price and price only.

Apparently driving it home, revelation that chief cook and (woke) bottle washer Netflix, drank the Kool-Aid and overestimated advertising demand.

The last update on NFLX, stated there may be a rally to test the breakdown. So far, it hasn’t happened.

Last Thursday’s – 8.6%, ‘air-pocket’, may have been the kick-off to much lower prices (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s take another look at the big picture on Netflix.

Netflix NFLX, Weekly

Very quickly we see the overall (impulsive) direction of the market is down.

In Wyckoff terms, there’s what he called ‘ease-of-movement’, to the downside.

Next, we have a possible Head & Shoulders, top.

If NFLX, reverses from here all the way down to the neckline (blue line), and if it breaks that line, then we target the 40-area; that’s a lot of ‘ifs’.

Moving in closer on the daily chart, is the following:

Netflix NFLX, Daily

The wedge breakdown is clear.

There was an attempt to rally, if you can call it that, on Friday. So far, no significant upside action.

The zoom area shows price action still below the lower wedge boundry.

Netflix is different from our other potential implosion, short candidate (which proved correct), Carvana, CVNA.

That difference, Carvana sold a product for which there was an actual need, i.e., transportation.

Summary

It’s been just over a year since the CVNA, ‘No P/E’, report.

Carvana’s a slow-motion train-wreck; down over -98%, as of Friday’s close.

Netflix?

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

There’s No … ‘Santa Rally’

December 8, 2022 By in Excess Deaths, GDX, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, NEM, The Epoch Times, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Forecasted Months Ago … Now, Playing Out

Let’s start with the post from way back in September, linked here.

Back then, it said (emphasis added):

“It’s going to be a very different place come December.

This won’t be like ’08 -’09, where all the stops are being pulled to ‘rescue’ the market.

No, this time really is different.

We can all see by now; the plan is controlled demolition.“

That was then. Fast forward to now.

ZeroHedge has come out with the obvious. If there’s going to be a Santa Rally, it needs to start soon.

Good luck with that.

Instead of looking for a rally, we’ve moved on from that (unlikely) potential to something different, linked here.

That link is not a forecast. It’s there to remind us, the potential for what can happen.

One group that just won’t let go of the (sustainable) rally scenario are the gold bugs.

Seems like with every ‘blip’ higher we have articles like this one, this one, and this one.

So, let’s take a look at a the largest cap in the mining sector, Newmont and see what the price action is telling us.

Newmont Mining NEM, Weekly

First, we have the un-marked chart and right off the bat, it does not look good; down -45.4%, from all-time highs.

It looks even worse, when the resistance zone is added.

So far, price action has already stalled and not been able to hold within the resistance zone.

It’s important to note, this resistance area is over two years wide. it’s not likely that anything’s going to happen to the upside without numerous attempts.

No ‘Clicks’, In A Gold Bear Market

If buying gold was the answer to getting through the financial, economic and societal collapse, then one would think the price would be moving relentlessly higher.

That’s not happening … not by a long shot.

What is happening, is this: Demand destruction on a colossal scale.

This destruction is on the birth side and the death side.

These events are affecting everything, going forward.

Nailing The Reversals

Using Wyckoff analysis, this site has been able to identify reversals in gold and the miners at times, to the day.

Important pivot points are here, here, here, and here,

Once again, at this juncture, we’re at a potential reversal in silver, gold, and the miners.

It’s about 15-minutes before the open. NEM is trading slightly higher by about 1.00%.

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Can It Get Any More Dangerous ?

November 30, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, David Weis, LABD, LABD-22-13, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff

Testing The Reversals

First, some housekeeping.

This morning’s action in biotech SPBIO, forced exit of LABD-22-12, with a minimal loss of -0.12% (not advice, not a recommendation)

There was a bounce off SPBIO, resistance in the early session and then, it became clear the market was setting up to penetrate that resistance.

As the Fed announcement progressed, SPBIO, indeed moved up sharply.

Reversal Set-Up

By definition, such action puts SPBIO, in a test of a prior Up-Thrust (reversal) from 11/11/22 – 11/15/22.

Conversely, it puts the leveraged inverse fund LABD, in a test of a Spring set-up during the same period.

You can already see where this is going.

The work has been done on a fundamental basis as well as technical; biotech is set for significant downside.

Whether or not, we’re at that inflection point right now, is unknown.

Biotech 3X Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

Looking at the mark-up below, we’ve had a spring set-up; then, sign of demand with action moving higher and finally today, a test of that spring set-up.

David Weis used to call such drastic moves a ‘gut-check’, to see if you can hang on (not advice, not a recommendation).

Price action has come right back to support with a wide bar and high volume.

Such bars increase the probability of a counter move to test which in this case, is a move higher.

Summary

Remember, all this action’s occurring ‘within’, the SPBIO, bear flag that’s formed over two-plus months.

It seems like a huge understatement to say this market and the main indices, are in a dangerous position.

Positioning

Not advice, not a recommendation.

Like a Terrier on a Mailman’s leg, we’re not giving up on biotech’s potential downside … at least not yet.

Short position in SPBIO via LABD; details are as follows:

LABD-22-13***:

Entry @ 18.72***: Stop @ TBD***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Pandora & Twitter, The Box Opens

November 29, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-12, Positions, SPBIO, The Speck, Twitter, Van Metre, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Fuel, For The Downside

With Twitter’s lifting of the ban on truth, linked here, we may be entering the next phase of collapse.

Whether or not it’s going to immediately show up in market price action, is unknown at this point.

Nascent Reversal?

The last update identified the markets were poised for potential reversal.

Two days later and we’re mostly down; that’s in spite of the supposed positive ‘machine’ bias as presented at this link.

A positive machine-market could still happen (data released tomorrow) but for now, price action itself, is posting lower; this is the crux of Wyckoff analysis … ‘What is the market saying about itself’.

In line with the truth being let out, not surprisingly, chief cook and bottle washer, biotech, is having a rough time.

Biotech Bear Market

Prior posts have documented the bear flag that’s been forming for over nine-weeks. Now, we have an apparent coiled action, ready for the downside.

Since we’re short this sector via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation), we’re going to look at LABD, to identify the potential.

SPBIO, 3X Leveraged Inverse, LABD

We have three charts, all depicting daily action.

The first (un-marked) chart is close-in and it looks like a mess. That is, until you put in trend lines and a Fibonacci count as shown on the second chart.

Adding the mark-up.

Then, keeping those trend lines intact, pulling farther out, we see the potential if there’s a sustained move.

Price action has been trading in a tight range over the past eight-days. Let’s see what happens next.

Positioning

Not advice, not a recommendation.

Short position in SPBIO via LABD; details are as follows:

LABD-22-12:

Entry @ 19.9194, 20.91***: Stop @ 19.28***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Market, Signals Trouble

November 25, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Bonds, Jerimiah Babe, LABD, LABD-22-11, LABD-22-12, Michael Cowan, Positions, SPBIO, TLT, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

It’s Not About The Fed

The potential for a sustainable bond reversal was identified way back in mid-October.

Now, over a month later with bonds moving decisively higher, the ‘narratives‘ are out in force.

Those narratives revolve around ‘pivot me this, or ‘pivot me that‘, or an infinite number of the same variations.

The reality is, there’s not going to be any ‘pivot’.

Even if there was, as Michael Cowan reported weeks ago, the market keeps crashing anyway (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that in mind, a popular narrative is that bonds are higher because the Fed will lower rates when they see we’re in a ‘recession’.

Well, they won’t ever see a recession because we’ve skipped that part; going straight to collapse and economic depression. 🙂

Of course, as Jerimiah Babe puts it, Americans won’t do a thing to get ready until the last minute … most likely after the market is down 50%, or more.

Instead of the placating, proletariat calming narrative, it’s a recession; maybe bonds are moving in response to those in the know … something much worse may be ahead.

Could bonds be signaling, we’re close to a market rout?

Bonds, TLT, Weekly

We’re going to start with the original analysis, showing the potential for a sustained reversal.

From the October 16th, post.

A month or so, later.

As with the dollar analysis from years ago, a weekly bullish divergence as we see here, may result in a rally that lasts longer and goes farther than anyone expects.

Of course, the real question is ‘what does it mean?’

As Wyckoff said over a century ago, we won’t know the full reason for a move until it’s over.

One view of it however, different from the accepted narrative, we could be headed for some kind of disconnect; those in the know are shifting to ‘relative’ stability.

Moving on to other markets, we have the following:

Positioning

Not advice, not a recommendation.

The push higher in biotech SPBIO, discussed in the prior update did not materialize.

Instead, we got a new daily low, followed by some upward testing action.

A day-trade in LABD was opened and closed; then near the market close, opened again.

Details are as follows

LABD-22-12:

Entry @ 19.9134***: Stop @ 19.10***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Set For ‘Implosion’ … Biotech

November 24, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, AMGN, BEAM, Biotech, FATE, GILD, LABD, LABD-22-10, Positions, SPBIO, The Speck, TWST, VRTX, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

IBB & SPBIO, at The Danger Point®

Each one in their own way, as we’ll see below.

From a Wyckoff standpoint, we’ve identified one of, if not the sector(s) most likely to decline the farthest and fastest in a bear market.

Without question, biotech contains the overriding ‘elephant’ that’s literally affecting everything else on the planet (not advice, not a recommendation).

As stated in the tag-line above, the two indices in question are IBB (large cap) and SPBIO (small cap).

IBB, has Amgen, Gilead and Vertex, as the top three while SPBIO, has more speculative (i.e., losing more money) Beam, Twist and Fate.

Index IBB has $342.8-Bil, combined for the top three while SPBIO has only $6.5-Bil, combined.

So, it makes sense the more speculative ‘cash burning inferno‘ TWST, is in the SPBIO. 🙂

On to the charts

IBB Weekly

IBB has formed a decisive resistance area as shown.

The fourth attempt which pushed above the prior three levels (and retraced), puts IBB, at The Danger Point®

Next up is the SPBIO.

It’s much weaker and thus the focus for any short opportunities (not advice, not a recommendation).

SPBIO ($SPSIBI), Weekly

While IBB, has moved higher, to an up-thrust over the past nine weeks, SPBIO during that time, has languished.

Note: The chart scales are identical. Scrolling up and down, one can visually see the weakness of SPBIO.

SPBIO, also reached all-time highs, six months before IBB.

Getting Closer-In: SPBIO

We’re going to look at the hourly chart.

SPBIO, Hourly

Those who are long-time visitors to this site will instantly recognize the set-up: ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust‘

This Friday, tomorrow, is a shortened trading day.

There’s a potential we’ll have a small blip higher into the up-thrust zone.

Conversely, for 3X Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, the potential is for a temporary move lower.

Leveraged Inverse LABD, Hourly

This is how it looks for LABD.

Note for the inverse fund, the ‘spring’ on SPBIO, becomes the ‘up-thrust’ on LABD.

Positioning

Not advice, not a recommendation

Wednesday’s downside action in LABD, resulted in the LABD-22-10, position being stopped out with an overall gain around 7.12%.

There have already been several disruptions to the company’s trading platform and data line over the past month and we’ve not even got started with market chaos.

Recall that just recently, the Canadian market went off-line for several hours. We should consider these events the ‘norm’, on a go-forward basis.

As a result, a standing order (in the market) is in place to go long LABD (short SPBIO) at the execution price of LABD @ 18.62.

That order may or may not be modified as we go into the open tomorrow morning.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279