Category Archives: IYR

Biotech Bobsled, Starts … Down

February 9, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DRV, IYR, LABD, Positions, Real Estate, SPBIO 1 Comment

Slowly, At First

Of all the major indices for today’s (Wednesday) session, biotech’s SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, had one of, if not the largest gain @ +10.48%.

The last update identified two sectors to watch for short positioning: Real Estate IYR, and Biotech SPBIO; Short positioning via leveraged inverse funds DRV, and LABD, respectively (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since that post, DRV is up + 1.74%, and LABD is up + 8.58%, both measured on a close basis.

The ‘Big Reveal’

Remember: When price action turns south, that’s when the bad news comes out.

If this is the big reversal and biotech is the downside leader, unfortunately, that could mean a planned ‘reveal’ by the mainstream media.

Anyone going to alternative sites such as BitChute, ZeroHedge, Rumble, know full well what’s happening.

Maybe we’ll have another distraction like the 100-th (at last estimate) food processing plant fire or even something totally retro, like a balloon flying across … oh, wait. 🙂

Biotech SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse LABD

We’ll get straight to the point as prior updates have built a substantial case for a long term, significant reversal.

Recall, LABD is the leveraged inverse of SPBIO. The daily chart shows the current set-up.

This site does not provide investment advice.

With that said, one could infer from this prior post (at the bottom), a position in LABD had already been established and included a hard-stop.

That was indeed the case.

Next Steps

There’s no guarantee on how far or how long a directional move will go.

However, for SPBIO, one can observe since the February 2021, reversal from all-time highs, a sustained, directional move typically lasts 4 – 6 weeks.

The next update will show the best chart timeframe (multiple days) that resulted in capturing the majority of the directional moves since the February 2021-high.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Moderna ‘Channel’ … Redux

February 5, 2023 By in Biotech, Excess Deaths, IYR, KMX, LABD, MRNA, Real Estate, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, Weekly Wrap-Up, Wyckoff 1 Comment

… And The Weekly, ‘Summary & Strategy’

The last update about our chief cook and bottle washer of gene ‘modification’ had this to say about price action.

“We’re about forty minutes into the session; Moderna (MRNA) has just confirmed the up-thrust reversal discussed in the last update“.

From that point Moderna (MRNA) declined for seven weeks for a total of around – 31.5%.

However, that’s not the most important part.

In that update, a trading channel was shown which at the time, was declining at – 93.7%, on an annualized basis.

Well, the channel is back.

Only this time, probabilities and price action have come together to set up for a potential sustained decline.

Moderna MRNA, Weekly

Above, we have a Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ and a test that has since turned lower.

Next, we have a series of repeating trend or channel lines.

Additional data has modified the downward slope to be declining at approximately – 90%, annualized.

From a fundamental standpoint, the data set is enormous on the events of the past three years.

At some point that data could provide a huge tailwind for downside action.

For now however, let’s stick with what price action is telling us and go to the Summary & Strategy

Summary & Strategy

The past week has identified two areas of position or trade execution and two areas for possible short-term options execution (not advice, not a recommendation):

Position or Trade: Real Estate IYR, and Biotech SPBIO

Options: Carmax KMX, and Moderna MRNA

As a reminder, most if not all trade analysis is for the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).

Final Thoughts

Since we have possibly the largest bull trap in market history with huge numbers of VIX Call options, the following week may be subdued by going modestly up, sideways or down, slowly.

With that said, options positioning (if any) could be slated for the week of 2/17/23.

As always, price action is the final arbiter.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biggest Bull Trap, in History ?

February 3, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, IYR, LABD, Real Estate, SPBIO, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 8 Comments

Slow Descent, At First … Then, Mass Sell-Off ?

The large number of VIX (volatility) Calls, tells us, not to expect an immediate sharp move lower.

Those Calls will likely need to be bled-off in value, before we get a significant downward spike … if there is one.

Market Summary, Watch List

Over the past week, there are two markets that are being monitored for short position entry: Real Estate and Biotech; IYR, and SPBIO, respectively.

After nearly five months of price action whipsaw and congestion, biotech appears to be in a nascent downside reversal. Real estate looks to have reversed today (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech has been the weakest (technically) of all the major indices (except miners, GDX and GDXJ).

We’re going to look at the daily chart of SPBIO, to see the opportunity and the risk.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily Close

Since late September last year, there has been sideways-to-up, price action congestion.

Price action today, appears to have resolved into a nascent reversal.

We’re going to invert the chart to mimic the leveraged inverse fund LABD, showing the opportunity and the risk.

SPBIO, Daily Close (Inverted)

The prior two days of Fed induced bullish short-covering hysteria, have resulted in a decisive penetration of the support level, as shown.

By definition, this puts us in Wyckoff ‘Spring Position’; be on guard for a potential reversal.

Positioning

There have been many false starts to this sector’s reversal as evidenced by previous posts.

However, today’s action is consistent with resolution of the five-months of congestion (not advice, not a recommendation).

Every trading/speculator has their own style and this site does not give financial advice.

With that said, a (highly leveraged) short entry via LABD, would have a hard stop at today’s low.

At present (2:15 p.m., EST) and entry at LABD 12.91 would have a stop at 12.45, yielding a ‘risk’ of 0.46-pts.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Historic (Downside) Potential

February 2, 2023 By in 2007 - 2008, DRV, IYR, Real Estate, SRS, ZeroHedge

Momentum Stretched Like ‘Never Before’

How do you know it’s a bear market bounce?

Take a look at the long-term chart of real estate IYR, below.

From a historic momentum standpoint, we’re at ‘never before’ levels.

The chart puts it in perspective.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

MACD momentum is stretched to (nearly) off the chart.

In the zoom version below, note how MACD histogram made lower lows in 2022, and then immediately launched to an historic extreme in January.

It’s potentially the largest short squeeze in IYR, trading history.

What that means; when we finally get a decisive reversal (possibly this week) the downside potential is enormous (not advice, not a recommendation).

Old vs. New ‘Investor’

Here’s a good read on the differences between those who learn and those who do not.

A paraphrased quote:

‘Whatever bad scenario you can imagine, reality can be far worse.’

In the next update, and depending on price action for the day, we’ll discuss how you author is (or plans to) positioning for the downside in IYR.

It’s about five minutes before the open and IYR, is trading slightly higher.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Do Not Pass ‘Go’

February 1, 2023 By in 1929, Dow 30, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Greater Depression, IYR, Michael Cowan, Real Estate, Speck-Effect, The Speck, ZeroHedge

Do Not Collect $200

Go Stright To Economic ‘Depression’

And, that’s where we are ladies and gentlemen.

Provided many times on this site, the assessment we’ve gone straight past recession and directly to: ‘The Greater Depression’, or ‘The Great Depression 2.0’

By now, we’re all aware of this data, just out from ZeroHedge.

That data is at the ‘peak’ or the depths of 1932, and we in our current market, haven’t even got started!

‘Entertain Me’

YouTuber, Michael Cowan, has picked up the story.

You can hear the frustration in his voice (time stamp 1:31) as everybody seems to be waiting to be ‘entertained’ with a crash before they do anything.

It’s a good thing we’re not part of that ‘crowd’, right? 🙂

Lions and Tigers and The Fed, Oh My!

The Fed’s interest rate announcement is due out at 2:00 p.m., Eastern, today; does it really matter?

We can see with unbiased observation; the wheels have already, irrevocably, been set in motion.

The economy along with the ‘elephant’ that no one talks about, are juggernauts on a downward course.

The 1929 Crash, Then Bull Rally

Remember, the big market speculators of the early 1900s typically made their fortunes on the way down (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s also not forget, one of, if not the largest market rallies up to that time (in percentage terms), happened right in the middle of The Great Depression.

Chart by macrotrends: www.macrotrends.net

Of course, to trade that mid-1930s rally, you had to have the capital to do so.

Which brings us to the next topic: Real Estate.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

With yesterday’s new print high, we’re at Fibonacci Week 34. That puts us at a potential trading channel or inflection point as discussed in this post.

There’s no guarantee of a trading channel or even a reversal.

However, we do have a confluence of events; upside volume (pressure) declining, marginal new highs and the potential Fed pivot point, due out today.

It’s about 20-minutes before the open. Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … Ready for Reversal

January 29, 2023 By in 1929, Federal Reserve, Great Depression, Holiday Turns, IYR, Jerimiah Babe, Real Estate, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Unrelenting, Down Data

‘The economy has already collapsed’.

That’s from Jerimiah Babe and is likely, correct.

Recent data-points supporting the case for ‘collapse already in progress’, are below:

American’s spending drops … again.

Pending homes sales worst annual decline … ever.

There are nine other supplemental data points for the economic mayhem, collapse, collapse-in-progress scenario; they are listed at the end of this post.

For now, we’re talking about real estate and specifically the proxy for the sector, IYR.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

As stated in the last post, we’re going to follow-up with a potential IYR, downside reversal by covering three more technical points; Fibonacci time correlation, thrust energy and trading channel.

First up: Last week completed a Fibonacci 34 (-1 week) time frame that may result in a reversal into a trading channel (shown on second chart).

Upward force (Thrust Index) declined significantly over the prior upward push during the week of 1/13/23.

The weekly chart has been compressed and trading channel lines added.

Internal trendlines are printed as grey dashed lines.

As shown, we’re at ‘Week 34 (-1)’.

If this market’s in reversal and adhering to a Fibonacci time sequence, we could see an immediate reversal or another minor high next week to make it an even 34 or go one additional week to make it 34 (+1) weeks.

Either way, we’re at The Danger Point®

The 1929 – 1932 Trading Channel(s)

Here’s a bit of insight you’ll not find anywhere else.

Research and data gathered by my firm, has shown markets tend to reverse just before, during, or just after a Holiday Week.

In our case below, The 1929, all time high was 379.61, posted on September 4th; the Tuesday following the Labor Day Weekend.

The final low and subsequent reversal was 41.81, posted on July7th 1932; the Thursday following the July 4th Holiday:

Enough Said.

Chart provided by macrotrends @ www.macrotrends.net

There are at least three main trading channels in effect for the entire (nearly) three year down move.

Trading channels are an old and repeating characteristic of the markets.

Real Estate Re-Cap

The all-time high in real estate IYR, was 116.89, posted on December 31, 2021, the Friday before the New Year’s Weekend.

Since then, there have been several trading channels in effect; at this juncture, we may have yet another.

With the data links provided at the beginning and the links at the end of this post, sustained price action to the downside is more probable (not advice, not a recommendation).

This coming week is likely to be quite interesting as the Fed continues on its path of price and demand destruction.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Addendum

Congratulations on reading this far. You must be serious about your work. Supporting data for the bearish case is below.

Housing data stabbed in the heart.

Blackstone redemption limits

Population set to collapse or is already collapsing.

Real estate fire sales … just the tip?

Home sales biggest annual drop.

New ‘protections‘ affecting the market?

Copper prices at record highs.

Pilots with bad hearts? No problem.

Where did all the workers go?

Real Estate’s Potemkin Village

January 28, 2023 By in Federal Reserve, IYR, Prechter, Usual Suspects, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

The ‘Pain Trade’ = Opportunity

‘Some of the best market traders are former Marines.’, Prechter

That’s a paraphrased quote from Robert Prechter Jr., given during an interview in the early 1990s.

The inference: Marines succeed at trading because they have been conditioned to endure and perform while being in pain … physical and mental.

On the other hand, the financial press, being ever so helpful during this unprecedented collapse, is all too happy to help analyze the situation by catastrophizing on how ‘painful’ the market feels.

We’re going to be ‘bathing in lava‘, according to them.

If we go to Jerimiah Babe at time stamp 1:36, the mainstream press is still touting ‘The consumer is strong’.

In other videos, Babe, has shown how devastated the real estate market really is … ‘boots on the ground’ reports at vacant malls, empty parking lots and new (unoccupied) housing developments that stretch for miles.

With that backdrop, let’s look at what the price action of real estate is telling us … is the consumer strong?

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

There are so many things happening in IYR, it will probably take several updates.

At this point, price action exhibits the following:

Currently in Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ condition, potential reversal

On a close basis, IYR has retraced 38.2% of its entire move.

Repeating trend line(s) underside test.

Trading channel that’s a Fibonacci 34 (-1) weeks wide.

For the week just ended, Force Index is divergent (54.7%, weaker) than the last push higher.

We’ll look at the first three of those, below.

As the market came to a close on Friday, price action pushed through established resistance (and axis line) to end the week higher.

Price action’s in Up-Thrust condition, The Danger Point®

Next, we have on a close basis, a Fibonacci 38.2% retrace as well as testing the underside of a resistance/trend-line.

In the next update, we’ll discuss the possible trading channel and the pressures (Force Index) behind the last move higher.

There Will Be Great ‘Wringing Of Hands’

As always, anything can happen in the markets. The above is not advice or a recommendation.

Next week, we can expect the Usual Suspects to come out and provide their ‘expert analysis’ on what the Fed is likely to do or not.

The Fed on the other hand, has repeatedly said what’s it’s going to do; that is, raise rates.

Interest rate sensitive real estate already appears ready for reversal.

Let’s see what happens. next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil … Gas … Gold & Newmont

January 21, 2023 By in Dow 30, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Inflation, IYR, Michael Cowan, NEM, Oil & Gas, Prechter, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, Speck-Effect, SPY, The Speck, Twitter, XOM, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Markets, At Critical Juncture

Nemont Mining (NEM), Gold, and the Oil & Gas Sector are at a critical juncture.

The rest of the major indices, Dow, S&P, QQQs, real estate (IYR), and so on, are in a similar position.

For this update, we’ll focus on Newmont (NEM), as it’s the largest cap in the Senior Mining Sector GDX, and a general representative of the commodities markets.

Financial collapse is a process, not an event.

Newmont topped-out in April, of last year. Exxon, the proxy for the Oil & Gas sector, may have reached its highs this past November.

Where’s The Inflation?

As Michael Cowan has just reported, banks are absconding with depositor’s money under the guise of ‘bail-in’.

If the fiat cash is so worthless, why are banks seizing it?

As Robert Prechter Jr., said years ago, ‘all fiat cash ultimately goes to zero’; the end game (most likely) for the dollar. However, it could be months, years, or even a decade before that happens.

For right now, today, this minute, the data is showing us, the banks want the money; ‘Show me the money‘.

With that, let’s look at the non-existent ‘inflation’ in the mining sector.

Newmont Mining NEM, Weekly

The first chart identifies the heavy volume and then test of wide price bars. This behavior is common in the markets; they tend to come back and test wide high-volume areas.

Next, we see there’s a terminating wedge developing as volume declines; the inference, is lack of significant commitment at these price levels.

We’ll get close-in on the wedge; last week printed a lower weekly low and closed lower for the week.

There’s no breakdown of the wedge … yet.

At this juncture, it’s up to the bulls to show they’re still in control.

Inflation vs. Scarcity

We have without a doubt, the effects of the event from the past three years gaining momentum. Whether or not those effects reach a peak this year, is unknown.

A lot of the mainstream and YouTuber’s alike talk about the upward move in gold as the result of ‘inflation’.

Here’s a little bit of insight you’ll not find anywhere else; how about gold rising because the above mentioned ‘effects‘ are causing production volumes to decline?

Maybe it’s because of scarcity (along with nearly everything else) that’s causing the increase in price.

Just to drive that idea home, the latest total gold production numbers, listed here.

Gold production for 2020 dropped -8.2%, from the year prior. Year 2021 was down -1%, from 2020.

From 2010 to 1019, gold production increased or was flat year over year … that is, until 2020.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The 15-minute, ‘January Effect’

January 3, 2023 By in DRIP, DRIP-23-01, DUG, IYR, Livermore, Oil, Oil & Gas, Positions, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, SPY, XOP 2 Comments

That’s All There Was

If we use the S&P as the proxy, it hardly even lasted that long.

Going back to just four days ago, we had this (emphasis added):

“It’s well known, stocks tend to rise in the first weeks of January. Tax loss selling is over and there’s typically some type of ‘relief’.

Don’t count on it this time (not advice, not a recommendation).”

Market Meets Expectations

It was expected on the first trading day of the year, the market would continue its downtrend.

After this morning’s 15-minute blip, that’s exactly what’s happening.

We’ve already discussed real estate IYR, (here, here and here) as well as the Q’s (here).

Now, there appears to be another sign of impending price collapse … the oil sector; specifically, Oil & Gas Index XOP.

As is typical, we’ll begin the analysis with the longer time frame, the weekly.

Oil & Gas Sector XOP, Weekly

There’s no secret to the chart below other than Livermore’s admonition for going short; that is, he finds a market that ‘goes down and stays down’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

The prior two down-drafts were quickly retraced; one in mid-July last year and one in September.

Not so, this time.

If we go to the daily, we have an ominous look where a downtrend could be validated.

Oil & Gas Sector XOP, Daily

The right-side trend is drawn as a dashed line, revealing the attempted breakout on the last two sessions in December.

Attempted trend line and channel breakouts are normal market behavior.

It’s clear in the case above, price action has quickly got itself back into the trading channel.

Summary

Of course, oil prices are not supposed to go down, right?

At this juncture, look at all the conflict and potential supply disruptions that are possible.

However, the price of oil and the price of the exploration/production equities are two separate things.

The price of oil could skyrocket further, and yet, the equites still collapse. Bear markets are all about price, wealth, and credit destruction.

Typical short positioning trade vehicles for this sector are DRIP (-2X) and DUG (-2X), or to short the XOP directly (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Asset Confiscation, Gaining Speed

January 1, 2023 By in DRV, IYR, Jerimiah Babe, Real Estate, SRS, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Higher Taxes, Starting Today

But wait, it’s not just taxes.

According to this link, it’s not only higher taxes, but retirement accounts being hi-jacked through rule changes.

‘The bulk of the wealth of the American people.’

Not to be outdone, the IRS will increase penalties for under and overpayment of taxes as reported by Fox Business via Jerimiah Babe (time stamp 22:16).

At least it’s nice to know, implementation of the ‘$600’ rule will be saved until next year. 🙂

So, we have the context for the year 2023; i.e., wealth destruction, asset confiscation, fines and fees.

It’s a straightforward plan on ‘their’ part.

What’s also straightforward as reported by Babe, a large number of Americans don’t even know what’s going on let alone be willing to take action.

Then, The Elephant

Let’s not forget the ‘elephant’ that’s likely to be the biggest driver for 2023.

We see that elephant every day now and sometimes multiple times a day. It’s starting to reach the fringes of the mainstream with articles like this one.

Scroll down to The List … It’s No. 2

That elephant and its subsequent lack of demand (less population, fewer buyers) as a result, will likely affect real estate in a big way … for decades to come (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last update showed the weekly trading channels in IYR. The next chart goes further out to the monthly and identifies a Fibonacci sequence.

Real Estate IYR, Monthly

So far, we’ve had IYR on the daily (link here), the weekly (link here), and now the monthly, below.

Major inflection points on the monthly have occurred at Fibonacci timeframes.

Original Forecast, October

The analysis of the current set-up started way back in late October. Using a weekly chart, a potential Fibonacci sequence was identified that ultimately proved correct.

Real estate IYR, had its print high during Fibonacci Week 8, as shown below in the original forecast.

The next chart shows where we are now, again on the weekly timeframe.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

Original Analysis & Forecast

The updated chart shows the subsequent price action.

Real estate IYR, has pivoted lower and posted tight price action over the past two weeks. Tight action typically precedes a breakout or directional move.

Summary

Anything can happen in the markets.

Even though a good analysis has been presented to indicate further downside for IYR, this Tuesday’s action will let us know for sure.

Typical vehicles to go short the sector are leveraged inverse funds DRV (-3X) and SRS (-2X) or to short the IYR directly (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279