Category Archives: ZeroHedge

Moderna … Options Strategy

February 19, 2023 By in Biotech, Dr. Elder, MRNA, The Speck, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Trend Contact … Then, Pivot Down

With a potential right-side trend (and channel) contact confirmed; shown below at – 86% annualized, odds are now favorable for a Put strategy.

In addition to the technical factors discussed, listed at the bottom of this post are no fewer than 22-links to the current fundamental state of biotech and their ‘handiwork’.

The weekly chart of MRNA, has a Wyckoff Up-Thrust and a test, confirmed by the downside pivot.

Moderna MRNA, Weekly

Notice the reversal action took place at a very weak Fibonacci 23.6% retrace.

The two blue lines on the daily chart (below) are exactly parallel.

The grey lines are parallel to the blue lines and intended to show MRNA, exhibits a repeating (downtrend) pattern.

Moderna MRNA, Daily

The expanded version on the daily has support being penetrated (horizontal blue line) and then ‘spring’ action last Friday as a result.

Of course, it’s ‘what happens next’, that’s the question.

In a prefect scenario, price action would thrust lower for a day or several days and then come back up to test the underside of resistance.

Elder Option Strategy

This strategy is taken from Elder’s book ‘Come Into My Trading Room’, and seeks to use as short-dated options as possible.

Doing so, requires the discipline to wait sufficient amount of time for price action to get into position and for option time value to bleed-off.

Potential Upside

Since we’re already in spring position and price action moved off the lows on Friday, MRNA could continue the upside right back to, or past the downtrend line.

However, with massive (undeniable) fundamentals building buy the day, and MRNA being mentioned specifically in at least one link below, probabilities favor the downside.

Supporting Links For The Bearish Stance

Florida Surgeon General Warns Life-Threatening VAERS Reports Up 4,400 Percent Since COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout

US Says Government, Not Moderna, Should Face COVID-19 Vaccine Lawsuit

New Medical Codes For COVID Vaccination Status Raise Concerns Among Experts

Watch: Rand Paul Grills School Of Nursing Head On Student COVID Vaccine Mandate

US Navy Lifts COVID Vaccine Mandate For Sailor Deployment

Mainstream Media Continues To Push False ‘COVID Heart’ Narrative To Explain Excess Deaths

NFL Players’ Association Urged To Screen for Heart Issues Over Vaccine Side Effects

WHO Suddenly Shelves Plans For Second Phase Investigation Into Origins Of COVID-19: Report

Watch: CDC Director Suggests It Will Never Change Child-Masking Policy

Rand Paul Introduces Bill To Halt Funding For Hospitals Denying Care To The Unvaxxed

Welfare State Weakens… 30 Million Americans Are About To Lose ‘COVID’ Food Stamp Handouts

IMF Says World Needs To Prepare For The “Unthinkable” After COVID, War In Ukraine

COVID Emergency, Climate Emergency: Same Thing

Novavax To Sell US Government 1.5 Million More Doses Of COVID-19 Vaccine

“World’s First” Unvaccinated Dating Service Launches In Hawaii

Living The Lie

‘COVID-Curing’ Sorrento Therapeutics Plunges After Filing For Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection

What Can We Learn From The Biggest Lies People Believed About COVID?

Censorship Operations: COVID, War, And More…

CDC Director Defends Mask Mandates After New Study Shows Masking Has Little Effect

Bivalent COVID Vaccines Perform Worse Against Variant Now Dominant In United States: Studies

COVID NEWS COMPILATION WITH NUMBER 33

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biggest Bull Trap, in History ?

February 3, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, IYR, LABD, Real Estate, SPBIO, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 8 Comments

Slow Descent, At First … Then, Mass Sell-Off ?

The large number of VIX (volatility) Calls, tells us, not to expect an immediate sharp move lower.

Those Calls will likely need to be bled-off in value, before we get a significant downward spike … if there is one.

Market Summary, Watch List

Over the past week, there are two markets that are being monitored for short position entry: Real Estate and Biotech; IYR, and SPBIO, respectively.

After nearly five months of price action whipsaw and congestion, biotech appears to be in a nascent downside reversal. Real estate looks to have reversed today (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech has been the weakest (technically) of all the major indices (except miners, GDX and GDXJ).

We’re going to look at the daily chart of SPBIO, to see the opportunity and the risk.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily Close

Since late September last year, there has been sideways-to-up, price action congestion.

Price action today, appears to have resolved into a nascent reversal.

We’re going to invert the chart to mimic the leveraged inverse fund LABD, showing the opportunity and the risk.

SPBIO, Daily Close (Inverted)

The prior two days of Fed induced bullish short-covering hysteria, have resulted in a decisive penetration of the support level, as shown.

By definition, this puts us in Wyckoff ‘Spring Position’; be on guard for a potential reversal.

Positioning

There have been many false starts to this sector’s reversal as evidenced by previous posts.

However, today’s action is consistent with resolution of the five-months of congestion (not advice, not a recommendation).

Every trading/speculator has their own style and this site does not give financial advice.

With that said, a (highly leveraged) short entry via LABD, would have a hard stop at today’s low.

At present (2:15 p.m., EST) and entry at LABD 12.91 would have a stop at 12.45, yielding a ‘risk’ of 0.46-pts.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Historic (Downside) Potential

February 2, 2023 By in 2007 - 2008, DRV, IYR, Real Estate, SRS, ZeroHedge

Momentum Stretched Like ‘Never Before’

How do you know it’s a bear market bounce?

Take a look at the long-term chart of real estate IYR, below.

From a historic momentum standpoint, we’re at ‘never before’ levels.

The chart puts it in perspective.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

MACD momentum is stretched to (nearly) off the chart.

In the zoom version below, note how MACD histogram made lower lows in 2022, and then immediately launched to an historic extreme in January.

It’s potentially the largest short squeeze in IYR, trading history.

What that means; when we finally get a decisive reversal (possibly this week) the downside potential is enormous (not advice, not a recommendation).

Old vs. New ‘Investor’

Here’s a good read on the differences between those who learn and those who do not.

A paraphrased quote:

‘Whatever bad scenario you can imagine, reality can be far worse.’

In the next update, and depending on price action for the day, we’ll discuss how you author is (or plans to) positioning for the downside in IYR.

It’s about five minutes before the open and IYR, is trading slightly higher.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Do Not Pass ‘Go’

February 1, 2023 By in 1929, Dow 30, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Greater Depression, IYR, Michael Cowan, Real Estate, Speck-Effect, The Speck, ZeroHedge

Do Not Collect $200

Go Stright To Economic ‘Depression’

And, that’s where we are ladies and gentlemen.

Provided many times on this site, the assessment we’ve gone straight past recession and directly to: ‘The Greater Depression’, or ‘The Great Depression 2.0’

By now, we’re all aware of this data, just out from ZeroHedge.

That data is at the ‘peak’ or the depths of 1932, and we in our current market, haven’t even got started!

‘Entertain Me’

YouTuber, Michael Cowan, has picked up the story.

You can hear the frustration in his voice (time stamp 1:31) as everybody seems to be waiting to be ‘entertained’ with a crash before they do anything.

It’s a good thing we’re not part of that ‘crowd’, right? 🙂

Lions and Tigers and The Fed, Oh My!

The Fed’s interest rate announcement is due out at 2:00 p.m., Eastern, today; does it really matter?

We can see with unbiased observation; the wheels have already, irrevocably, been set in motion.

The economy along with the ‘elephant’ that no one talks about, are juggernauts on a downward course.

The 1929 Crash, Then Bull Rally

Remember, the big market speculators of the early 1900s typically made their fortunes on the way down (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s also not forget, one of, if not the largest market rallies up to that time (in percentage terms), happened right in the middle of The Great Depression.

Chart by macrotrends: www.macrotrends.net

Of course, to trade that mid-1930s rally, you had to have the capital to do so.

Which brings us to the next topic: Real Estate.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

With yesterday’s new print high, we’re at Fibonacci Week 34. That puts us at a potential trading channel or inflection point as discussed in this post.

There’s no guarantee of a trading channel or even a reversal.

However, we do have a confluence of events; upside volume (pressure) declining, marginal new highs and the potential Fed pivot point, due out today.

It’s about 20-minutes before the open. Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … Ready for Reversal

January 29, 2023 By in 1929, Federal Reserve, Great Depression, Holiday Turns, IYR, Jerimiah Babe, Real Estate, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Unrelenting, Down Data

‘The economy has already collapsed’.

That’s from Jerimiah Babe and is likely, correct.

Recent data-points supporting the case for ‘collapse already in progress’, are below:

American’s spending drops … again.

Pending homes sales worst annual decline … ever.

There are nine other supplemental data points for the economic mayhem, collapse, collapse-in-progress scenario; they are listed at the end of this post.

For now, we’re talking about real estate and specifically the proxy for the sector, IYR.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

As stated in the last post, we’re going to follow-up with a potential IYR, downside reversal by covering three more technical points; Fibonacci time correlation, thrust energy and trading channel.

First up: Last week completed a Fibonacci 34 (-1 week) time frame that may result in a reversal into a trading channel (shown on second chart).

Upward force (Thrust Index) declined significantly over the prior upward push during the week of 1/13/23.

The weekly chart has been compressed and trading channel lines added.

Internal trendlines are printed as grey dashed lines.

As shown, we’re at ‘Week 34 (-1)’.

If this market’s in reversal and adhering to a Fibonacci time sequence, we could see an immediate reversal or another minor high next week to make it an even 34 or go one additional week to make it 34 (+1) weeks.

Either way, we’re at The Danger Point®

The 1929 – 1932 Trading Channel(s)

Here’s a bit of insight you’ll not find anywhere else.

Research and data gathered by my firm, has shown markets tend to reverse just before, during, or just after a Holiday Week.

In our case below, The 1929, all time high was 379.61, posted on September 4th; the Tuesday following the Labor Day Weekend.

The final low and subsequent reversal was 41.81, posted on July7th 1932; the Thursday following the July 4th Holiday:

Enough Said.

Chart provided by macrotrends @ www.macrotrends.net

There are at least three main trading channels in effect for the entire (nearly) three year down move.

Trading channels are an old and repeating characteristic of the markets.

Real Estate Re-Cap

The all-time high in real estate IYR, was 116.89, posted on December 31, 2021, the Friday before the New Year’s Weekend.

Since then, there have been several trading channels in effect; at this juncture, we may have yet another.

With the data links provided at the beginning and the links at the end of this post, sustained price action to the downside is more probable (not advice, not a recommendation).

This coming week is likely to be quite interesting as the Fed continues on its path of price and demand destruction.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Addendum

Congratulations on reading this far. You must be serious about your work. Supporting data for the bearish case is below.

Housing data stabbed in the heart.

Blackstone redemption limits

Population set to collapse or is already collapsing.

Real estate fire sales … just the tip?

Home sales biggest annual drop.

New ‘protections‘ affecting the market?

Copper prices at record highs.

Pilots with bad hearts? No problem.

Where did all the workers go?

Real Estate’s Potemkin Village

January 28, 2023 By in Federal Reserve, IYR, Prechter, Usual Suspects, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

The ‘Pain Trade’ = Opportunity

‘Some of the best market traders are former Marines.’, Prechter

That’s a paraphrased quote from Robert Prechter Jr., given during an interview in the early 1990s.

The inference: Marines succeed at trading because they have been conditioned to endure and perform while being in pain … physical and mental.

On the other hand, the financial press, being ever so helpful during this unprecedented collapse, is all too happy to help analyze the situation by catastrophizing on how ‘painful’ the market feels.

We’re going to be ‘bathing in lava‘, according to them.

If we go to Jerimiah Babe at time stamp 1:36, the mainstream press is still touting ‘The consumer is strong’.

In other videos, Babe, has shown how devastated the real estate market really is … ‘boots on the ground’ reports at vacant malls, empty parking lots and new (unoccupied) housing developments that stretch for miles.

With that backdrop, let’s look at what the price action of real estate is telling us … is the consumer strong?

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

There are so many things happening in IYR, it will probably take several updates.

At this point, price action exhibits the following:

Currently in Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ condition, potential reversal

On a close basis, IYR has retraced 38.2% of its entire move.

Repeating trend line(s) underside test.

Trading channel that’s a Fibonacci 34 (-1) weeks wide.

For the week just ended, Force Index is divergent (54.7%, weaker) than the last push higher.

We’ll look at the first three of those, below.

As the market came to a close on Friday, price action pushed through established resistance (and axis line) to end the week higher.

Price action’s in Up-Thrust condition, The Danger Point®

Next, we have on a close basis, a Fibonacci 38.2% retrace as well as testing the underside of a resistance/trend-line.

In the next update, we’ll discuss the possible trading channel and the pressures (Force Index) behind the last move higher.

There Will Be Great ‘Wringing Of Hands’

As always, anything can happen in the markets. The above is not advice or a recommendation.

Next week, we can expect the Usual Suspects to come out and provide their ‘expert analysis’ on what the Fed is likely to do or not.

The Fed on the other hand, has repeatedly said what’s it’s going to do; that is, raise rates.

Interest rate sensitive real estate already appears ready for reversal.

Let’s see what happens. next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil … Gas … Gold & Newmont

January 21, 2023 By in Dow 30, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Inflation, IYR, Michael Cowan, NEM, Oil & Gas, Prechter, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, Speck-Effect, SPY, The Speck, Twitter, XOM, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Markets, At Critical Juncture

Nemont Mining (NEM), Gold, and the Oil & Gas Sector are at a critical juncture.

The rest of the major indices, Dow, S&P, QQQs, real estate (IYR), and so on, are in a similar position.

For this update, we’ll focus on Newmont (NEM), as it’s the largest cap in the Senior Mining Sector GDX, and a general representative of the commodities markets.

Financial collapse is a process, not an event.

Newmont topped-out in April, of last year. Exxon, the proxy for the Oil & Gas sector, may have reached its highs this past November.

Where’s The Inflation?

As Michael Cowan has just reported, banks are absconding with depositor’s money under the guise of ‘bail-in’.

If the fiat cash is so worthless, why are banks seizing it?

As Robert Prechter Jr., said years ago, ‘all fiat cash ultimately goes to zero’; the end game (most likely) for the dollar. However, it could be months, years, or even a decade before that happens.

For right now, today, this minute, the data is showing us, the banks want the money; ‘Show me the money‘.

With that, let’s look at the non-existent ‘inflation’ in the mining sector.

Newmont Mining NEM, Weekly

The first chart identifies the heavy volume and then test of wide price bars. This behavior is common in the markets; they tend to come back and test wide high-volume areas.

Next, we see there’s a terminating wedge developing as volume declines; the inference, is lack of significant commitment at these price levels.

We’ll get close-in on the wedge; last week printed a lower weekly low and closed lower for the week.

There’s no breakdown of the wedge … yet.

At this juncture, it’s up to the bulls to show they’re still in control.

Inflation vs. Scarcity

We have without a doubt, the effects of the event from the past three years gaining momentum. Whether or not those effects reach a peak this year, is unknown.

A lot of the mainstream and YouTuber’s alike talk about the upward move in gold as the result of ‘inflation’.

Here’s a little bit of insight you’ll not find anywhere else; how about gold rising because the above mentioned ‘effects‘ are causing production volumes to decline?

Maybe it’s because of scarcity (along with nearly everything else) that’s causing the increase in price.

Just to drive that idea home, the latest total gold production numbers, listed here.

Gold production for 2020 dropped -8.2%, from the year prior. Year 2021 was down -1%, from 2020.

From 2010 to 1019, gold production increased or was flat year over year … that is, until 2020.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil & Gas … The Reversal

January 19, 2023 By in DRIP, Oil & Gas, XOP, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Form, Is First … Time, Is Next

With Price Action … form is first, then time.

There was a larger than expected crude inventory build, as ‘the consumer is weaker than expected’.

The ‘consumer’ is not weaker than expected, they’re tapped out.

There’s real potential, events accelerate from here.

The reversal in the sector, XOP, was anticipated to happen on Friday, tomorrow.

At this point, it looks like it came early.

The daily chart of XOP, below shows a reversal at the Fibonacci 50%, retrace.

Oil & Gas XOP, Daily

The next chart zooms-in on the reversal.

We’re about fifteen-minutes before the regular session and set to open lower.

Look for the market to print lower, then attempt a rally as a test of the reversal.

That retrace, if it occurs, may be a low-risk area for a short via DRIP (not advice, not a recommendation).

If the anticipated test fails, and price action makes a new daily high (above yesterday’s print), it’s then likely the sector is on its way to all-time highs.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Precious Metals … Silver & Gold

January 15, 2023 By in GLD, Mannarino, Palladium, Platinum, SLV, Speck-Effect, The Speck, ZeroHedge 3 Comments

The ‘Non-Confirmation’

Something’s not right in the precious metals sector.

Gold’s just off -8%, from its highs while other monetary metals (Palladium, Platinum, Silver) are far below their highs; silver’s off a whopping -51.75%, from its 2011, highs.

In addition, as we’ll see below, silver (SLV) is just now contacting the right side of a trend line and potential downward channel structure that goes all the way back to the lows of 2015.

The ‘Squeeze’ of 2021

Below on the weekly chart of SLV, is a point labeled “1”.

That’s the location of what turned out to be a right-side trend line contact. Back then, an update on the ‘squeeze’ was posted, linked here.

Taken from that update was the following (emphasis added):

Those attempting garner forces (the little guy) to move the markets, such as silver, will find out soon enough who’s in control … and it’s not them.

It’s unlikely silver is going higher any time soon. There could be some upward spasms as the crowded trade exhausts itself; it’s likely we’ve seen the SLV highs for quite some time.

So, here we are nearly two years later; SLV never posted higher than the February 2nd, squeeze of 2021.

So, what’s next? Is there something else going on?

We’ll look at that question after the charts.

Silver SLV, Weekly

First, is the un-marked chart.

Next, we see a pattern that’s not so clear without mark-up.

For SLV, to break out, there needs to be an absence of motivated sellers (prices drift higher) or sufficient buying demand to overcome the downward trend.

Inflection Point

For an idea of what’s likely to happen next, we’re going to go to an unlikely source; Daniela Cambone and Gregory Mannarino.

It’s not about ‘controlling’ inflation and it never was, going all the way back to 1913. It’s about the ‘end game’, as discussed by Mannarino.

“Eliminate The Middle Class” (time stamp 11:40)

The sticky wicket is the ‘debt bubble’ and the ‘elephant’.

The Elephant Grows

The chart of silver (and other precious metals) and its non-confirmation with gold, could be an indicator of debt collapse and demand collapse first, before hyperinflation.

Multiple times a day now we have reports like the following flooding into the marketplace:

COVID Vaccines Are “Obviously Dangerous” And Should Be Halted Immediately, Say Senior Swedish Doctors

‘Normalization’ Of Emergency Use Authorizations Concerns Health Experts

CDC Says Stroke Concerns Over Pfizer Jab Warrant Investigation

They Promised “Safe And Effective”; We Got “Sudden And Unexpected”

Pentagon “Exploring” Back-Pay For Troops Kicked Out Over COVID Vaccine Mandate

Multiple Young Athletes And Former Athletes Died Suddenly This Past Month

Doctor Calls For Withdrawal Of Pfizer, Moderna COVID-19 Vaccines Following New Research

The above list is just since yesterday and it’s only 2:00 p.m., Central Time, today!!!

Monetary & Manufacturing

Silver is unique more so than gold, in that it’s an industrial metal as well as monetary.

The collapse in manufacturing demand could be the reason silver’s not confirming gold’s move.

It may also be telling us, as the effects of the elephant take hold, a huge liquidation of all assets could be coming; paradoxically as the need for fiat cash (not precious metals) to pay off debt, increases.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Delta Airlines … The Short Set-Up

January 14, 2023 By in Airlines, DAL, Dr. Elder, Positions, S&P 100, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Hanging In ‘Mid-Air’

It’s a good thing we’re not listening to the financial press as the market’s ‘Call The Fed’s Bluff’; we would’ve missed the set-up.

Let’s bookmark this post (like the last one), come back in July or so, and see how the poker-hand with The Fed played out.

Three guesses on who’s going to win and the first two, don’t count. 🙂

With Delta, it’s not the Fed they have to worry about. A series of events were set in motion (i.e., pilot ‘shortage’) that may not get fixed for years to come.

Ditto, for the other airlines.

Moving on, let’s take a look at what the price action of Delta (DAL), is telling us.

For brevity, we’ll go straight to a marked-up (and time compressed) weekly chart of DAL.

Delta Airlines DAL, Weekly

DAL spent nearly a year building a ‘terminating wedge’ before breaking down during February of 2020.

Hmmm, February of 2020, what was happening back then?

That breakdown, coupled with the terminating wedge, and it’s almost as if someone knew something; time enough to position massively short or buy put options.

Subsequent retrace off the 2020 lows, were at lower and lower Fibonacci levels … with the current retrace at 50%.

The Options Trade

Dr. Alexander Elder describes (Come Into My Trading Room) one way to trade options that few attempt.

That is, instead of buying long dated options and then waiting for the slow burn down of capital, the lesser-known method is exactly the opposite.

In his book, he describes buying short-dated OEX (S&P 100) Put options for 3/8ths … back in the day when the market traded in fractions.

Two days later, he sells the options for 17, a 4,433% gain.

Taking that method and applying it to the daily chart, we have the following.

Delta Airlines DAL, Daily

On Friday, there was a huge gap-lower, open.

Price action spent the rest of the session attempting to close the gap. Volume increased substantially from Thursday’s session (up +46%)

Yet, price action was not even able to touch the lows of that session; Friday’s high of 38.29, vs. Thursday’s low of 38.32.

It’s a nuance that may have meaning or not.

The Short Trade

As shown on the chart, a position was opened with a Put; strike at 35, and priced (at entry) at 0.09 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Following Elder’s method, the price and short expiration, says there’s no hope for this trade.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279