Category Archives: ZeroHedge

Bears To Seize Control ?

February 27, 2022 By in Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-01, SOXS, SOXS-22-02, SOXX, SPBIO, ZeroHedge

World Chaos, Continues

The long-time reasoning behind this site’s ‘short only‘ trading plan, is becoming abundantly clear.

For years, there have been no ‘long’ trades on anything except leveraged inverse funds.

The premise? A ‘disconnect’ can happen at any time.

At this point, we’re getting to see those potential disconnects in real-time on a near continuous basis.

The past week bled-off the massive put leveraging; thus, setting the market up for (potential) downside reversal.

Getting Back To ‘Normal’

Those who bought the dip in Pavlovian fashion, may be thinking at some point, we’ll get back to ‘normal’.

News Flash:

What’s happening now, Is The Normal.

This is how it’s going to be on a go-forward basis.

Conflict, shortages, supply chaos, weather weaponry, nuclear saber rattling, bank runs are now, all normal.

With that, let’s look at last week’s markets and the set-up for the week ahead.

The SOXX, Rebounds

The last update discussed being short the semiconductors via inverse fund SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

The stop was hit, and that position (SOXS-22-02) has been closed out with a gain of about 6.2%.

Note how in the daily chart below, price action came right up to the stop level shown previously, then penetrated that level ever so slightly.

The ‘market’ knows where you are.

Being (stopped) out lets one look for a better opportunity.

Biotech (SPBIO), The Next Set-Up:

Turns out that biotech, SPBIO, may be at a low-risk juncture for a short via leveraged inverse fund LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

Yesterday’s post highlighted some of the reasons for a biotech reversal.

The analysis below, builds on that reversal potential.

The weekly chart of SPBIO, has a channel and Fibonacci time correlation(s).

The next chart zooms-in on a possible target for a move lower.

Leveraged Inverse, LABD

Another reason to think SPBIO, is ready to continue downward, can be seen on the 4-Hour chart of LABD.

The prior report had daily range narrowing.

Getting closer into the action, we see the 4-Hour range narrowing as well.

In addition, down-thrust energy (Force Index) for Friday’s move appears to be exhausted.

Positioning

Early or late? If you’re trading professionally, that decision must be made ahead of time.

Some traders like to wait for ‘confirmation’ of a move and there’s nothing wrong with that.

For this author however, waiting for confirmation means I’m late. I’m behind the curve and ‘chasing’ the market.

With that said, LABD was entered towards the end of the session on Friday at 41.05 (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll find out soon enough, if Monday’s open will be in-the-green.

Summary:

Even as this post is being created, world news continues to pour in … this time, from North Korea.

Anything can happen in the coming week. The markets could somehow ‘shake-off’ all of the news and move higher.

However, probability suggests market continuation to the downside.

At this juncture, we’re about six hours before the Sunday futures open.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Intel … Off the Cliff

February 19, 2022 By in Elliott Wave, INTC, King James, NVDA, Prechter, Shakespeare, SOXS, SOXX, Stew Peters, The Speck, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Four-Year Top

Kick-Off … To The Downside

A massive four-year top, along with the latest ‘road-map‘, has this one going down; most likely, for good.

While other chip makers, have gone to near stratospheric levels such as Nvidia, with its 23,960% gain from 2009, lows, Intel has languished.

The rest of the markets, S&P, Dow, QQQs, have pushed on higher while INTC, has spent the last four years, in a trading range.

A sideways market is a bear market.

Intel never recovered its luster after the Dot-Com mania of the 2000s. Price action spent eight years heading sideways-to-down before bottoming out in early 2009.

After that, it’s been a long struggle to current levels.

Now, the markets have reversed and the economy’s collapsing. We’ve likely seen market highs that won’t be repeated in the lifetimes of anyone reading.

Friday’s announcement may be the kick-off for sustained price action to the downside.

INTC, Chart Analysis

The daily chart shows at least one breakaway gap and possibly two.

The next chart is on the weekly timeframe and identifies the long, multi-year, topping pattern.

When looking at these patterns, be reminded about the scale of what’s happening.

This wedge is massive … at least four years in the making.

Note: Price action finished the day right at the lower support. There could be a rebound on Tuesday (market’s closed Monday) or we could just keep going lower.

The SOXX Connection

Intel’s fifth in market cap of the SOXX, with Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) at the top of the list.

Even the leader TSM, may not be immune to trouble.

Here are Fab locations for Taiwan Semi, located just off the coast of mainland China … nothing bad going to happen there, right?

And then, there’s this:

The SOXX, Drops

The SOXX, has been analyzed using Elliott Wave and Wyckoff.

Each method indicated potential for reversal.

In the case of the ‘wave’ analysis, if it proves correct, we’re possibly in for a sustained ride lower.

The daily chart of SOXX, shows each analysis point where a reversal lower was projected.

It’s clear from the chart and documented links, both methods nailed it … to the day.

Elliott was earliest and caught the exact point of inflection.

Wyckoff caught the test of the up-thrust.

Here’s the important part:

Wyckoff is a practical, bread and butter method. It looks at what the market’s saying about itself … is price action showing pressure to the upside or down?

Elliott Wave looks at where the market could be or is going.

If we’re really in an Elliott Wave Three down, it’s likely to be a decline like no other.

There are other indicators not market related, giving us hints, a massive collapse is ahead.

A Decline of ‘Biblical’ Proportions

Warning:

The following contains scriptural references.

Those who are in ‘it’s all a myth and fairy tales’ crowd, feel free to scroll to the ‘Summary‘.

For the rest of us, the secular world calls it ‘systems collapse’. The spiritual world calls it ‘judgement’.

Stated many times on this site, ‘the church’ is corrupt. Here’s just the latest salvo proving that point.

Along with the corruption, we now have the strong delusions prophesied over 2,000 years ago.

In reference to a Stew Peters broadcast, linked here, on the numerous media lies, is this comment (emphasis added):

“The only people to blame for this Stew are the ones who put on the mask, who distanced, who took the shot, who harassed other people and who advocated for my freedoms being taken away. Without doing five minutes of research.”

It’s not too much of a stretch to say, those who voluntarily injected themselves were (or are) in a place of delusion.

“And for this cause God shall send them strong delusion, that they should believe a lie:”

Also said many times, ‘The Speck’ as we call it, is a hoax. It’s a lie. It does not exist.

However, the injections are no lie … but the reasons for those injections are false.

Can this (spiritual assessment) really connect with what’s happening in the markets? How does it relate to actual price action?

Obviously, it can’t and shouldn’t be said that any specific price movement has been prophesied.

However, we can use the scriptural references to point us to the probability of events; the big picture, the situation at hand, the signs of the times.

The probability that we’re at some kind of major inflection point of Biblical proportions, seems exceedingly high.

Summary

Both Elliott Wave and Wyckoff Analysis, support the probability of lower prices ahead for the SOXX.

Because Intel (INTC) has been a laggard in the sector for years, suggests it may be one of the downside leaders.

As if to confirm the assessment we’re past the pivot, that generational highs have been reached, we have this just out, on ZeroHedge.

At the very bottom of the article, is a quote.

No, they’re not quoting from the King James Bible of 1611; they’re quoting from Shakespeare’s Richard III, of 1594.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

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SOXX, Ready To Drop

February 17, 2022 By in 2010 Flash Crash, Bonds, Elliott Wave, Flash Crash 2010, I Allegedly, Nissam Taleb, SOXS, SOXX, Taleb, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

All The Good News Is Out

Liquidity Risk?

It’s been long enough; most have forgotten the ‘Flash Crash‘ of 2010.

That crash happened in May of that year.

May of this year, would make it 12-years and interestingly, a Fibonacci 144, months.

Normalcy Bias:

As Nissam Taleb said in his book, ‘The Black Swan’, every day is like every other day on the farm, for Mr. Turkey … that is, until Thanksgiving Day.

Let’s take a look at the historical chart of Semiconductor ETF SOXX, and see the effect of a Flash Crash.

Easy to spot … prices did recover by the end of the day.

What about the next time?

This report just out on ZeroHedge, shows liquidity is drying up in the bond market. Actually, liquidity has been drying up ever since Dodd-Frank of 2010.

All of this is working (to increase risk) in the background.

Let’s take a look at another unprecedented event … the downthrust and apparent recovery in the semiconductor index, SOXX.

SOXX, ETF, Daily Chart

First up, is the unmarked chart of the index.

Next, we’ll show the recovery higher is on diminishing volume.

There’s no real commitment to the higher prices …. they are just drifting upward.

We’ve already shown the Elliott Wave assessment of the current structure. Now, let’s look at it from a Wyckoff standpoint; Up-Thrust and Test.

Price action posted an Up-Thrust, declined and now has come back for an apparent test.

Confirmation Bias

At this juncture, both Elliott Wave and Wyckoff Analysis present a price action structure that’s set for downside reversal.

In a way, we’re at the danger point for both methods.

Summary

From a personal and corporate standpoint, going long in this market and all markets for that matter, was abandoned long ago (not advice, not a recommendation).

To borrow a phrase from Dan at i-Allegedly, he repeats over and over in his videos, ‘We’ve had warning, after warning’.

So, we have.

The SOXX, is telling us, it’s ready to resume action to the downside. After-hours, already has the index trading lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

p.s. The insight of 2010 Flash Crash, anniversary of Fibonacci 144 months in May of this year, is exclusive to this site.

Herd Behavior … After The Top

February 12, 2022 By in Elliott Wave, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions, Prechter, SOXS-22-01, SOXX, ZeroHedge 3 Comments

Correction, Or Collapse

Structural Damage, SOXX

Even though technical conditions show we’re at least in a correction, if not outright reversal or collapse, record inflows for 2022, vs. 2021, present the herd-driven behavior of the public (and funds), to go long.

According to the link above, flows have been out of bonds and lesser performing equities, into equities that have gone down less.

In addition, you can see some of that flow (not addressed in the article) going into gold and the mining sector.

Stepping Back

Pulling away from charts and indicators for a moment, figuratively closing one’s eyes to get a ‘feel’ for what’s happening, it looks like the following:

We’re in a (potential) massive juggernaut reversal that’s been decades in the making; possibly having origins going all the way back to the ’87, crash, the ’95, bull market and then, repeated bubbles of 2000, ’07, and now.

At this point, it looks like the ‘average investor’ is doing the only thing they know how to do … that is, go long.

Those with at least some market knowledge, just got decisively whacked with their ‘put buying‘ strategy as the market has rallied strongly off the lows.

Pavlovian Panic

We’re witnessing the knee-jerk reactions of a public that’s been conditioned for decades, not to ‘think’, but only ‘do’.

Expect this type of behavior to go parabolic if the markets really do turn lower on a sustained, long-term basis.

Prechter has written extensively about crowds or the herd; especially in his text The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior.

We can see this visceral behavior real-time, in other seemingly unrelated markets. Two examples below:

First, we had oil futures going negative for the first time in history; then we have LNG tanker rates going negative first time as well.

The model seems to be:

“Everybody wants it, and then, they don’t”.

The crowd runs to and fro, effectively leaderless.

With that said, one can make a case we’re just beginning, or already in an economic collapse; now being followed by the early stages of a market collapse.

Meanwhile, The Elephant Gets Bigger

Let’s not forget the massive elephant that’s just now getting so large, it can’t be ignored (time stamp 2:40).

Recall the example at this link … disparate crowds have a tendency to come to the same decision and modify behavior, all-at-once.

You have to wonder, when that crowd is going to simultaneously press the Sell, button.

Hit, In The SOXX

Unprecedented events are everywhere. That includes the massive, ‘never before seen‘, thrust lower in the SOXX.

The uptrend shown in the weekly chart of SOXX, has been decisively broken and with enormous volume.

The week ending Friday January 28th, saw 16.7-million shares traded … the most ever for the index (ETF).

More detail on trend break

Then, There’s Elliott Wave

Before the ‘Elliotticians’ get miffed by the previous (cookie cutter) comments, here’s this:

When this method works … it’s great.

It provides good projection areas and the useful ‘Fourth Wave of Lesser Degree’, targeting.

Note: A quick internet search for this Fourth Wave method (authored by Prechter) turns up nothing.

Logging onto ‘Club EWI‘, putting in ‘Fourth Wave’ has no items found.

One can try contacting Elliott Wave International, to request a copy of this targeting method. It may still be available (for a price).

The data used by this author to target the 4th wave retrace (shown below), is from a hard copy, dated, 1/8/2003. That information was excerpted from The Elliott Wave Theorist, July 9th, 2002.

First, the 2-Hour chart from Thursday’s update is repeated below with the ‘lesser degree’, added in magenta font:

Getting closer-in on the 4th-wave area below:

It’s subtle and difficult to spot. The price action congestion area is the ‘4th wave of lesser degree’.

Summary:

The previous update showed entry points for what is now SOXS-22-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Friday’s price action put this position well in the green; getting it to +24%, based on the close.

The table below are the ETFs being tracked along with the leveraged inverse fund tickers.

The percentage gain/loss, is for this past Friday’s action and shown for the inverse funds.

Obviously, the semiconductors were hit the hardest on Friday and so, SOXS, had the largest gain.

A good stop level for SOXS would naturally be Friday’s low (not advice not a recommendation). If we really are in an Elliott Wave 3, down … price action’s expected to continue its decline with haste.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, Downside Reversal

February 10, 2022 By in 1987, David Weis, Positions, Prechter, SOXS, SOXS-22-01, SOXX, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

The Elliott Wave, Connection

A couple of things first.

Number One:

This site does not use Elliott Wave as a primary analysis tool.

However, to be aware of the technique, will at times provide an additional edge … like now.

Number Two:

Once again, gold and the mining sector have become unbearable to watch.

The amount of hysteria, hype and bloviation serves to make this market all about ego. Ego is a four-letter word for the professional speculator/trader.

We’re leaving it alone for now and moving on to the market at hand: Semiconductors (SOXX).

Semiconductors, SOXX

On a Monthly basis, the chart below is the entire trading history for the sector:

The next chart zooms into the area(s) of interest.

This market, the semis, had its most powerful thrust lower in January, for the entire history of the sector.

The following chart is where it gets interesting.

Elliott Wave labeling as shown. If correct, Wave 3, down has just started (not advice, not a recommendation).

Warning:

My former mentor, the late David Weis, who once worked for Prechter, said the approach is a “cookie cutter” (his words) attempt to force the markets into a pre-defined construct.

With that caveat in hand and the understanding the ‘wave’ could fall apart at any time, let’s see what it would project if price action followed the current labeling and structure.

The daily chart shows a Fibonacci projection based on the Elliott Wave labels:

The projections are in percentiles of the first wave distance.

Elliott Wave rules are that ‘Wave 3’ can’t be the shortest wave. If the structure holds, that means Wave 3 (if that’s what we’re in) would go below the 100%, level and potentially to 161.8%, level.

To Trade, or Not To Trade:

This structure was spotted late yesterday … after abandoning the gold sector. There had already been the pre-requisite hype about CPI numbers and such giving the ‘excuse’ for markets to rise.

That meant risk of a short position (yesterday, early today) was low: not advice not a recommendation.

The chart below of leveraged inverse fund SOXS, shows entry points for what is now: SOXS-22-01

Summary:

Taking a cue from the late Dr. Martin Zweig, on his words during this broadcast, he was very hesitant to use the word ‘crash’.

So, this update is hesitant as well.

However, if the forecasted move of SOXX, to the Fibonacci projected 161.8% level (or more) is realized, it’s a decline over – 37%, from current levels.

It would be significant … crash or not.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

‘Four Generations’

February 6, 2022 By in Corn, Currencies, Dollar, Dr. Elder, Epoch Times, Genesis 41, GLD, Gold & Silver, Taleb, Usual Suspects, UUP, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

The Average Life Of A Fiat Currency

What if the ‘imminent collapse’ of the dollar is overblown by about 50 – years?

According to this just out, on private gold-filled currency, the article states average life of a fiat currency, is four generations. It goes on to say there are exceptions like the British Pound, continuing on even after hundreds of years.

The Black Swan

In Taleb’s book ‘The Black Swan’, he says it’s an event that nobody expects. It has long lasting repercussions and permanent change.

However, what most if not nearly everybody ignores or leaves out, is his alternate definition. That is:

A Black Swan can also be a future event that’s widely accepted as fact, that does not happen !!!

Is that where we are with the U.S. Dollar?

Even though the dollar has not collapsed and in fact, has rallied as we’ll see below, the ‘collapse’ talk continues unabated.

It’s easy to talk about dollar collapse.

It’s what gets the clicks. No matter that an actual collapse may be years if not decades away.

As of this post, how many ‘monopoly money’ YouTube videos can be found? Seems like it’s the same number or more than, ‘gold to skyrocket higher’.

Well, so far, gold has not skyrocketed higher.

On top of that, this site’s even provided an exclusive correlation that gold’s moving inversely to corn.

See ‘Insight Note‘ at the end of this post.

Ever since the ‘Derecho‘, it’s never been the same.

Back to the dollar.

No doubt, the dollar was whacked over the past trading week. Let’s take a look at what the UUP, price action is saying about itself.

Dollar, UUP, Weekly Chart

The unmarked chart shows the dollar oscillating, testing support for six-months at the beginning of 2021.

Then, in mid-June ’21, UUP pivoted decisively higher (gold, GLD, pushed lower) and never came back to those levels.

Of course, this past week The Usual Suspects were out talking about the dollar and ‘monopoly money’.

Since the ‘gold skyrocketing higher’ forecast failed spectacularly, along with it being the investor’s fault, we then had the ‘clueless‘ and now, it’s ‘monopoly money’.

The chart below shows last week’s bloodbath has served to bring UUP, down to an established trend-line.

It’s important to note, with all that (down) volume, the most since early 2020, UUP was not able (thus far) to break through the trend (blue line).

That leaves the dollar at or near, the danger point.

Continued, sustained selling, risks breaking the uptrend.

If the opposite takes place and UUP starts to rally, last week may have been an inflection point (to the upside).

Gold (GLD) and the dollar appear to still be inversely correlated.

Summary:

Ever since removal of the link to gold in 1971, the dollar has the potential to collapse at any moment.

However, in this case, we at least have some historical precedent that on average, fiat currencies tend to last four generations before becoming worthless.

Wyckoff sates in his writings over and again, ‘somebody always knows something’.

If there’s a collapse afoot, he tells us to look at what the market is saying about itself (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Insight Note:

It’s been a strange coincidence over the past year or so, ideas presented on this site make their way to certain YouTube sites either in the titles, or within their content.

The timing of this phenomenon, that within a day or two, ‘post it first here, see it on YouTube there’, has occurred more times than one would consider as just ‘coincidence’.

Admittedly, the insights (making their way to certain YouTubers) have not been exclusive … that is, until now.

Recognition of the Gold/Corn inverse correlation, first posted here, is unique to this site.

As far as is known, this correlation has not been presented on any other financial site or YouTube channel or any other medium.

It may be an important data-point and map into this site’s long-time premise; it’s the corn and the grain first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

For more detail, search for Genesis 41.

When ideas from others are incorporated into the analysis presented on this site, full acknowledgement of the source is cited.

As Dr. Elder said in his book ‘Come Into My Trading Room’:

“I have zero respect for thieves”

He’s talking about the theft of his book title: “Trading For A Living”. He goes on to say, (paraphrasing)

‘Do you really want to use market analysis or input from someone that can’t think for themselves?’

Authorization:

Therefore, this footnote is authorizing the further use of the Gold/Corn inverse correlation by others in the industry if they so choose with the following caveat:

If one of the sites monitored (or some other media) uses this exclusive insight, and does so without referencing the source, it puts this author in the unenviable (but not unfamiliar) position of calling out the thief by name … not unlike what Stew Peters is doing (to the hoax/genocide perpetrators) on his broadcasts.

This market environment’s providing a fantastic public service:

It’s separating out the hucksters, the shysters and the otherwise incompetent from those who are, or who are striving to provide a service or useful insight.

The general investing public may find out soon enough, they’re on their own. Maybe unbeknownst to them, they’ve always been on their own.

End

‘Unbelievable’ Numbers

February 4, 2022 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, I Allegedly, JDST, JDST-22-01, Jerimiah Babe, Positions, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Good News Is Bad News. Bad News Is Good News

For all of us serfs in the banana republic proletariat, it’s near if not impossible, to keep up with the lies.

The latest ‘employment‘ report is just one example.

This video from Jerimiah Babe, posted a few days ago has a different story. Check out the intro and then farther on at time stamp: 9:00.

For a second opinion, we can go to Dan, at i-Allegedly.

On his latest post, fast-forward to time stamp 7:00, where he walks through an outdoor restaurant area that’s completely vacant.

The ’employment’ report is vapor. Judging from the comments (at ZeroHedge) most everyone seems to be aware of the fakery.

Naturally, with all of this uncertainty and rampant inflation, the logical place to go would be the gold market.

Junior Miners, GDXJ

As this post is being created (mid-session), the Junior Miners are at the danger point. Price action’s at a location where it’s decision time.

So far, it’s an ‘inside day’. We don’t have a new daily high or low from the previous session.

The Fib retrace of 23.6%, discussed previously is holding for now. That weights action to the downside.

Posting a new daily high would begin to erode the set-up; potentially indicating GDXJ, is going to attempt a retrace to the Fib 38%, level.

If that higher retrace becomes a more favorable probability, the JDST-22-01, trade will likely be closed out (not advice not a recommendation).

The chart below shows the inside action thus far.

The table below has the current positioning JDST-22-01, via inverse fund JDST (not advice, not a recommendation).

As always, the sell finger is on the trigger. Description of color coding and table layout is in this post.

Summary:

Trade decisions posted on this site are defined by the price action itself (not advice, not a recommendation). Wyckoff analysis does not concern itself with what’s obviously fake.

Wyckoff focuses strictly on what the market is saying about itself.

At this juncture, price action’s saying that both bulls and bears, are at the danger point.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Corn … The Famine Set-Up

February 1, 2022 By in Corn, Food Supply, Genesis 41, I Allegedly, Neo Feudalism, Teucrium, ZeroHedge 5 Comments

Waiting For Mr. Potato

It’s hitting the mainstream.

Famine ahead; more specifically, a crisis in corn.

This article just out from ZeroHedge, has the upcoming crop in an almost guaranteed rout before it even gets planted.

Ever since the ‘Derecho‘, corn has been thought (on this site) to be the potential catalyst for market and economic collapse.

The first time that idea was presented was on August 20th, 2020, in this post.

It’s important to note that way back, 17-months ago, it was already understood to be a ‘controlled demolition’.

Crazy conspiracy back then. Looks like a fact, now.

Which brings us to the charts.

CORN: Weekly Chart

As usual, we’ll start with the unmarked chart: Teucrium tracking fund CORN:

It looks like price action is about to break to the upside.

The chart below is marked with some key levels: Support and 38%, and 50% retrace:

For long-time visitors to this site, you can almost write the script for what comes next.

What can make corn drop far enough to get itself below established support and into the ‘spring set-up’ area?

Doing so, may present a medium, to long-term, trade opportunity.

‘Enter, The Potato‘

It’s probably not “if”, but “when”.

What we’re looking for here, is some kind of Jimmy Carter type stunt where corn exports are halted in the name of ‘national security’ or some such thing.

More detail on the Carter grain embargo at this link … scroll down to No. 12

Of course, if that happens, corn is likely to crash (like it did last time) if only temporarily.

More Is Less

A corn embargo means more corn for us, right?

Probably, wrong.

Remember, fertilizer prices are sky-high.

Elevated corn prices (like now) might just cover the cost for the farmers … maybe.

A corn crash in the commodities would likely mean even less corn gets planted … maybe none at all.

Enter, The ‘Bought And Paid For’

It may be that easy (as above), or get complicated because a major consumer of U.S. exported corn, is China.

Exports to China over the last year have literally gone off the scale. Add to that, China is the number two holder of U.S. Debt.

So, one can already see where this may be going.

After the initial fake panic where the politicians realize there’s a crisis (that part being real), which they themselves created, they’ll likely pontificate about halting exports for just long enough, to have farmers throw in the towel with no spring planting.

After all of that, and let’s not forget special investigative news coverage about ‘how all this happened’; blame it on climate change and then keep everything the same.

Exports continue (to China) as much as possible and the U.S. citizens starve … literally.

By the way, go to time stamp 24:04, at this link and look at the clouds in the upper right. For those awake, it’s clear; right angle, cross-hatch pattern.

Right angles are not a natural phenomenon. Whatever climate change there is, is the one being created.

When Corn Takes The Dive

If or when corn takes a hit, price action itself will define the correct trade action.

So, let’s be ready and not surprised, if we see corn in chaos.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Usual Suspects

January 30, 2022 By in Livermore, Random Notes, Stew Peters, The Speck, Usual Suspects, Vernon Coleman, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Special Edition … ‘The Dam Is About To Break’

We have a crescendo of events.

No. 1

Corruption At The Highest Levels

Hearings on Capitol Hill on what we call ‘The Speck’ (to avoid censorship) and “corruption at the highest levels”.

Those of us who are awake, already know about the corruption … it’s just nice to see it hitting the mainstream.

No. 2

Cowards, To Brave ? … Probably Not

Max Igan in this video seems to think those who have been brainwashed into murdering their own children, will all of a sudden become brave and wake-up.

No, an alternate (more likely) view is, those who have been duped, fooled, the cowards, or just plain stupid, will likely turn their anger, not to the perpetrators … but to those who are even now, being referred to as ‘purebloods’.

In his own video, at time stamp 10:30, he shows the type of behavior that may go to a whole new level.

Does anyone think these people are going to become more sane, when they find out the truth of the injections?

No. 3

Greedy Implosion ?

Another Stew Peters broadcast where the guest, Karen Kingston has sifted through legal contracts, patent application and patent abstract documents.

She may have found a chink in the armor.

Looks like in the haste for profits, one manufacturer of ‘Speck’ protection may have done so outside the umbrella of lawsuit ‘immunity’.

No. 4

Robinhood, Swimming Naked ?

It’s happening fast.

When the (economic) tide goes out, that’s when we see who’s left their swimsuit behind.

HOOD stock price may need to brace for impact … at zero.

No. 5

Bear Markets … The Great Equalizer

Everybody’s a genius in a bull market.

When the trend turns South, that’s the opportunity for one’s market skills to stand apart from the ‘genius’ crowd.

As this article says, ‘bear markets are tough’.

Indeed. We can see how tough (and profitable) they are from Livermore’s attempt to short the market during The Panic of 1907.

As stated in Reminiscences, the story goes that he recognized a huge market break coming but started shorting too early … in 1906, as the market continued to rally.

Eventually, those rallies completely depleted his capital. He went broke.

The book goes on to say he began trading again later on but does not say how he got another capital stake; just that his credit was good at the brokerage office of ‘Ed Harding’.

We have to go to Wyckoff’s text from 1910, to find out that Livermore hocked his car for $5,000 and may have used that to re-establish his trading account.

After that, his trading errors corrected, he eventually covered his short positions at the bottom of the panic, October 24th of 1907, with over one million in profits (around 30 million in today’s dollars).

No. 6

T-Mobile: Set To Implode By April

Is dumb going to get smart? Like in No. 2, above, the answer is probably not.

T-Mobile is set for implosion by April.

No. 7

What’s The Motive ?

If you ever watch ‘Forensic Files’ or similar broadcasts, the police and the lawyers are always looking for the motive to commit the crime.

Well, here it is.

No. 8

And Then, There’s This …

Activist Post in this article is naming names.

Data and artifacts are piling up to dam-break levels.

There’s a virtual army of citizen journalism working to discover and sift through databases and documents.

No. 9

The Parting Shot:

What does any of this have to do with the markets?

Well …

Get your popcorn ready, ’cause Kansas is going bye, bye ….

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

It’s The Poo … Turning Into Gold

January 28, 2022 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Genesis 41, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, ice-age-farmer, JDST, JDST-22-01, Positions, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Wait, What ? … We Really Do Need Cows ?

Unprecedented times, yields unprecedented events.

It looks like cow dung (i.e., fertilizer) is literally turning into gold.

From the October 12th, 2021, update:

“What happens when the public realizes all-at-once, it’s the food supply that’s not ever (in quantity) coming back?”

Of course, in our upside-down world, if dung is turning into gold, well then gold must be turning into, um, something akin to dung; and so, it is.

For those who have been monitoring this site and others like ice age farmer, this news is nothing new.

The assessment that gold (GLD) was in a reversal (up-thrust) test, published hours before the Fed announcement, appears to be correct.

From the mining sector, the Junior Miners (GDXJ) have been hit the hardest being down about – 10.7%, for the week (early session).

Junior Miners, GDXJ:

We’re going to use the weekly close chart of GDXJ, as presented in the January 24th, update; more specifically, this statement:

“If GDXJ really has pivoted more aggressively to the downside, price action will ‘get itself into the channel’ by accelerating sharply lower.”

So, let’s take a look.

GDXJ, Then:

GDXJ Now (early session):

It’s still a long way to go before the close. However, action seems to be accelerating lower into the new more aggressive down-channel.

More detail in the zoom chart below.

Positioning

As a courtesy, although not obligated in any way, the following is from the company’s trade spreadsheet (not advice, not a recommendation).

The ‘share size’ has been changed to indicate percentage of the position.

Frist, we had DUST-21-01, closed out (details discussed here) and then JDST-22-01, opened. We’ll call that initial open as 100%.

Then, additions were made and one reduction before adding again. Those changes are shown as percentages of the original size.

Example: If the original entry on 1/19, was 10,000 shares of JDST, then on 1/20, that amount was increased by 348, shares and so on.

The table below provides the dates and entry/exit prices (not advice, not a recommendation).

Summary:

There may still be opportunity to increase position size.

However, it’s obvious at this point, the market’s in decline and volatility likely to increase all the more.

It’s literally been four months or longer, to plan this trade. As of this post, the combined position is up a nice +31%

The next order of business is to monitor action and locate potential exit targets and stop levels.

Meanwhile, the cow dung becomes ever more valuable. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279