Category Archives: Michael Cowan

Silver: Breakout or Test?

October 18, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GLD, Gold & Silver, LABD, LABD-23-11, Michael Cowan, Positions, SLV, SPBIO 2 Comments

Non-Confirmation

First off, before we get started, there’s this on ZeroHedge; Gold price out of control?

The short answer is ‘probably not’ and we’ll use the confirmation proxy Silver (SLV), as our example (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Silver Non-Confirmation

In a traditional ‘inflation’ scenario, silver and gold typically move in tandem.

We can see that’s the case during the last (major) inflation event back in the late ’70s and early ’80s.

Gold spiked right along with silver; Gold chart link here. Silver chart link here.

That Was Then

What we have now, is different. Something’s wrong.

Silver’s not confirming the price rise of gold; Silver vs. Gold, link here.

There’s a massive divergence between the two.

Silver (SLV) Weekly Close

The SLV weekly, shows we’ve broken down from a wedge, now testing the underside of resistance.

Silver more than gold, is tied directly to the economy; over half of all silver is used in production.

It seems, production is about to fall off a cliff.

Evidence can be seen in a corollary indicator, layoffs.

Mass Layoffs

As Michael Cowan shows (time stamp 1:30), layoffs are accelerating.

Let’s not forget, ShadowStats shows its own unemployment indicator, already at Depression Era levels.

Positioning

On this site, beginning in mid-September, short positions (via LABD) were opened in possibly, the weakest sector, biotech, SPBIO, $SPSIBI (not advice, not a recommendation).

The initial position was stopped out (gain around +21%), then re-established the same day (LABD-23-11) with an LABD entry of 21.69.

So far, with today’s action, LABD’s trading around 23.90; approximately + 10% from the entry.

In addition, we now have a new Hard Stop @ LABD 21.65, yesterday’s low (not advice, not a recommendation)

Chart updates are planned for the next post.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold At The ‘Wedge’

May 20, 2023 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Genesis 41, GLD, JDST, Livermore, Michael Cowan, Neil McCoy-Ward, The Speck, Wyckoff 1 Comment

What Comes Next ?

Gold bulls could get cooked.

If gold does not go higher, it’s because of ‘manipulation’, right?

The typical YouTube gold grifter acts like manipulation is a new discovery.

It’s the ‘go-to’ excuse when their forecasts don’t work out.

Way back in the early 1900s, Wyckoff discovered the market has always been manipulated.

His insight was, it’s up to the speculator to figure out the objective of the manipulation and then act accordingly (not advice, not a recommendation).

Livermore knew about manipulation and even engaged in it himself. He looked at things in a slightly different way; meaning, what is, not, what should.

A very key difference.

So, let’s look at what is happening with gold (GLD), and where it may head from here.

Gold GLD, Weekly

First, the chart from the April 9th, update.

Now, the updated chart.

It took gold (GLD) several weeks to labor higher on ever shortened thrusts before finally exhausting itself and rolling over into a reversal … where we are now.

Is price action hesitating before heading higher or is this a significant downside move in the making?

It probably won’t be long before we have the answer.

Junior Mining Sector GDXJ, Weekly

The gold mining indices GDX, and GDXJ, have already made their decision, reversing to the downside.

Note: Each reversal from a gold peak in the Junior Sector GDXJ below, is at significantly lower levels. This is not gold miner ‘bull market‘ behavior (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s clear, the Junior Miners are in a bear market …

The GDXJ, is completing or has completed what is an obvious bear flag or terminating wedge.

Unless price action shows us differently, this is the current assessment; lower prices ahead (not advice, not a recommendation).

Fundamentals

From a fundamental standpoint, where’s the demand for inedible (possibly fake) metal going to come from? The consumer’s already tapped-out and borrowing money just to buy the weekly groceries.

Maybe something else is going on.

Something else that’s causing precious metals miners to anticipate another huge (economic) move lower.

Possibly completely unrelated (in a way) to the mining sector … maybe yet another ‘Speck’ event, shown at time stamp 3:40, at this link.

At the same link, time stamp 5:25, we’re back to the food supply … yet again.

“And all countries came into Egypt to Joseph for to buy corn; because that the famine was so sore in all lands.”

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Do Not Pass ‘Go’

February 1, 2023 By in 1929, Dow 30, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Greater Depression, IYR, Michael Cowan, Real Estate, Speck-Effect, The Speck, ZeroHedge

Do Not Collect $200

Go Stright To Economic ‘Depression’

And, that’s where we are ladies and gentlemen.

Provided many times on this site, the assessment we’ve gone straight past recession and directly to: ‘The Greater Depression’, or ‘The Great Depression 2.0’

By now, we’re all aware of this data, just out from ZeroHedge.

That data is at the ‘peak’ or the depths of 1932, and we in our current market, haven’t even got started!

‘Entertain Me’

YouTuber, Michael Cowan, has picked up the story.

You can hear the frustration in his voice (time stamp 1:31) as everybody seems to be waiting to be ‘entertained’ with a crash before they do anything.

It’s a good thing we’re not part of that ‘crowd’, right? 🙂

Lions and Tigers and The Fed, Oh My!

The Fed’s interest rate announcement is due out at 2:00 p.m., Eastern, today; does it really matter?

We can see with unbiased observation; the wheels have already, irrevocably, been set in motion.

The economy along with the ‘elephant’ that no one talks about, are juggernauts on a downward course.

The 1929 Crash, Then Bull Rally

Remember, the big market speculators of the early 1900s typically made their fortunes on the way down (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s also not forget, one of, if not the largest market rallies up to that time (in percentage terms), happened right in the middle of The Great Depression.

Chart by macrotrends: www.macrotrends.net

Of course, to trade that mid-1930s rally, you had to have the capital to do so.

Which brings us to the next topic: Real Estate.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

With yesterday’s new print high, we’re at Fibonacci Week 34. That puts us at a potential trading channel or inflection point as discussed in this post.

There’s no guarantee of a trading channel or even a reversal.

However, we do have a confluence of events; upside volume (pressure) declining, marginal new highs and the potential Fed pivot point, due out today.

It’s about 20-minutes before the open. Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil … Gas … Gold & Newmont

January 21, 2023 By in Dow 30, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Inflation, IYR, Michael Cowan, NEM, Oil & Gas, Prechter, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, Speck-Effect, SPY, The Speck, Twitter, XOM, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Markets, At Critical Juncture

Nemont Mining (NEM), Gold, and the Oil & Gas Sector are at a critical juncture.

The rest of the major indices, Dow, S&P, QQQs, real estate (IYR), and so on, are in a similar position.

For this update, we’ll focus on Newmont (NEM), as it’s the largest cap in the Senior Mining Sector GDX, and a general representative of the commodities markets.

Financial collapse is a process, not an event.

Newmont topped-out in April, of last year. Exxon, the proxy for the Oil & Gas sector, may have reached its highs this past November.

Where’s The Inflation?

As Michael Cowan has just reported, banks are absconding with depositor’s money under the guise of ‘bail-in’.

If the fiat cash is so worthless, why are banks seizing it?

As Robert Prechter Jr., said years ago, ‘all fiat cash ultimately goes to zero’; the end game (most likely) for the dollar. However, it could be months, years, or even a decade before that happens.

For right now, today, this minute, the data is showing us, the banks want the money; ‘Show me the money‘.

With that, let’s look at the non-existent ‘inflation’ in the mining sector.

Newmont Mining NEM, Weekly

The first chart identifies the heavy volume and then test of wide price bars. This behavior is common in the markets; they tend to come back and test wide high-volume areas.

Next, we see there’s a terminating wedge developing as volume declines; the inference, is lack of significant commitment at these price levels.

We’ll get close-in on the wedge; last week printed a lower weekly low and closed lower for the week.

There’s no breakdown of the wedge … yet.

At this juncture, it’s up to the bulls to show they’re still in control.

Inflation vs. Scarcity

We have without a doubt, the effects of the event from the past three years gaining momentum. Whether or not those effects reach a peak this year, is unknown.

A lot of the mainstream and YouTuber’s alike talk about the upward move in gold as the result of ‘inflation’.

Here’s a little bit of insight you’ll not find anywhere else; how about gold rising because the above mentioned ‘effects‘ are causing production volumes to decline?

Maybe it’s because of scarcity (along with nearly everything else) that’s causing the increase in price.

Just to drive that idea home, the latest total gold production numbers, listed here.

Gold production for 2020 dropped -8.2%, from the year prior. Year 2021 was down -1%, from 2020.

From 2010 to 1019, gold production increased or was flat year over year … that is, until 2020.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Now, Comes Deflation

December 13, 2022 By in 1929, Biotech, GLD, LABD, LABD-22-14, Michael Cowan, SPBIO, Uneducated Economist, ZeroHedge 3 Comments

The ‘Pivot’, No One Expects

Happy days are here, again!

So, the Fed can pivot, and the bull’s on again.

At least, that’s what the media wants us to believe. The CPI is out, and ‘inflation’ has slowed.

The problem is, as Michael Cowan stated in this update (he’s done the work), from here, it does not matter what the Fed does.

The decline (crash) or whatever you want to call it, is baked in the cake.

Once deflationary forces start, it becomes a juggernaut.

The previous update on gold (GLD) showed in multiple time frames, upward thrust energy is dissipating; in at least one case, (weekly) it’s also divergent.

Now that we’ve had yet another blip higher, as expected, it’s rabid bullishness in the gold camp.

So, let’s look at what GLD, is actually doing. What does the market say about itself?

Gold (GLD), Daily

One thing is for sure; GLD, is at The Danger Point®

If GLD can’t hold above (and move above) this level, it may be in serious trouble.

Let’s look at it a different way … the terminating wedge.

A ‘wedge’ is typically the last pattern in a move up or down, hence the name.

As this post is being created (12:23 p.m., EST), GLD continues to decline from its open; currently sitting right at the resistance (potential support) level at the 168-area.

In a separate market, biotech SPBIO, has completely reversed its opening spike and is now posting lower.

We’re still maintaining the LABD-22-14 trade (not advice, not a recommendation).

Today’s CPI print and resulting price action, may be the kick-off to an overall sustained and persistent decline.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Market, Signals Trouble

November 25, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Bonds, Jerimiah Babe, LABD, LABD-22-11, LABD-22-12, Michael Cowan, Positions, SPBIO, TLT, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

It’s Not About The Fed

The potential for a sustainable bond reversal was identified way back in mid-October.

Now, over a month later with bonds moving decisively higher, the ‘narratives‘ are out in force.

Those narratives revolve around ‘pivot me this, or ‘pivot me that‘, or an infinite number of the same variations.

The reality is, there’s not going to be any ‘pivot’.

Even if there was, as Michael Cowan reported weeks ago, the market keeps crashing anyway (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that in mind, a popular narrative is that bonds are higher because the Fed will lower rates when they see we’re in a ‘recession’.

Well, they won’t ever see a recession because we’ve skipped that part; going straight to collapse and economic depression. 🙂

Of course, as Jerimiah Babe puts it, Americans won’t do a thing to get ready until the last minute … most likely after the market is down 50%, or more.

Instead of the placating, proletariat calming narrative, it’s a recession; maybe bonds are moving in response to those in the know … something much worse may be ahead.

Could bonds be signaling, we’re close to a market rout?

Bonds, TLT, Weekly

We’re going to start with the original analysis, showing the potential for a sustained reversal.

From the October 16th, post.

A month or so, later.

As with the dollar analysis from years ago, a weekly bullish divergence as we see here, may result in a rally that lasts longer and goes farther than anyone expects.

Of course, the real question is ‘what does it mean?’

As Wyckoff said over a century ago, we won’t know the full reason for a move until it’s over.

One view of it however, different from the accepted narrative, we could be headed for some kind of disconnect; those in the know are shifting to ‘relative’ stability.

Moving on to other markets, we have the following:

Positioning

Not advice, not a recommendation.

The push higher in biotech SPBIO, discussed in the prior update did not materialize.

Instead, we got a new daily low, followed by some upward testing action.

A day-trade in LABD was opened and closed; then near the market close, opened again.

Details are as follows

LABD-22-12:

Entry @ 19.9134***: Stop @ 19.10***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Crypto Contagion …”Contained”

November 14, 2022 By in 2007 - 2008, Banking, Bernanke, Bitcoin, Crypto, Lehman, Michael Cowan, The Epoch Times, The Speck, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Where Have We Heard That, Before ?

Is the Genie out of the bottle?

For those who weren’t around for the last melt-down, here’s a brief refresher; links here and here … enjoy.

Of course, the amount of real damage and interconnecting links, are not yet fully known … data is still forthcoming.

However, the backpedaling has already started … ‘Let’s rebuild‘.

How about, ‘Let’s get real.’

As Michael Cowan has said: ‘This is like Lehman, but for Crypto’ … ‘Over $2-Trillion has been destroyed, just like that!’

We’re still in the destruction phase. Any ‘rebuilding’ whatever that means, is probably years down the road.

Those In The Know

Wyckoff said a century ago: ‘Somebody always knows something, and that ‘something’ shows up on the tape’.

This is where understanding price action is critical.

We in the Serfdom, won’t know the details until long after the big players have cashed out or have been bailed out.

Why would it be any different than last time?

However, their moves will show up on the tape. That will provide clues on how or where to take action (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Elephant

All of this is happening on top of there being an elephant.

For those who somehow still don’t know what’s going on, here’s just one report, among many.

Positions: (courtesy only, not advice).

It’s just after the open (9:40 a.m., EST) and both positions listed below, have opened higher.

LABD-22-10:

Entry @ 18.1398: Stop @ 16.83

JDST-22-05

Entry @ 9.1666: Stop @ 8.79

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Market Set-Up … This Week

November 13, 2022 By in Biotech, Crypto, CVNA, GDXJ, GLD, Gold Miners, Goldman, HOOD, J.P. Morgan, JDST, JDST-22-05, LABD, LABD-22-10, Michael Cowan, Positions, SPBIO, TSLA, Wyckoff, Wyckoff Stock Market Institute, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

What To Watch … Crypto Collapse, Biotech, Gold, Telsa

JPMorgan … says sell

Goldman … says buy.

Wyckoff says … Don’t listen to either.

In fact, Wyckoff’s stock market training course, first published in 1934, (still available), says that until you can ignore the financial press completely, ‘You will never be successful in the markets’.

Price action itself, properly interpreted, will tell you where to look for the opportunity.

The Ponzi Implosion, Cometh

The market is littered with Ponzi schemes. Some have already imploded, CVNA, HOOD, Crypto; some have not.

Concerning Crypto, here’s an excellent update from Michael Cowan. Buried in that update, at time stamp 4:58, looks like HOOD, may be in even more trouble.

Biotech is in a class of its own and was discussed in yesterday’s update.

For gold, we’re going to look at the Junior Miners GDXJ, and last week’s action.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily Close

The Junior’s are the weakest in the sector; therefore, that’s where we look for a short opportunity (not advice, not a recommendation).

To move higher, above resistance, normal market behavior, is to come back to the lower blue line (i.e., support) to gain enough energy to move higher for a breakout.

To move lower, normal market behavior, is to come down to the lower blue line as a test which subsequently fails; the move continues lower.

Either way, normal behavior at this juncture, is to move lower. We’ll see.

Now on to the chief cook and bottle washer … Tesla.

Tesla (TSLA), At The Edge

For starters, let’s recognize there’re a lot of moving parts; U.S. ‘parts’ and China ‘parts’.

If one’s going short, another task is to forecast under what conditions a short would have enough risk removed.

For that answer, oddly enough, we go to gold, GLD.

Gold GLD, Weekly: 2015 – 2017

GLD posted a massive upthrust above the blue line lasting over fourteen weeks before breaking decisively lower.

Then, it labored four weeks to come back up for a test.

After that, collapse; lower weekly closes for seven consecutive weeks.

In the chart above, the area identified as ‘Short’, has as much upside risk removed as possible, right at resistance.

Now on to Tesla.

Tesla TLSA, Weekly

Two scenarios are presented where risk may be reduced.

Chart 1

Chart 2

One of these may happen or neither of them.

Either way, for risk to be reduced, a short entry is needed to be at a known resistance level (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s move on to the current positioning.

Positions: (courtesy only, not advice).

One of three events will happen at the next session.

1: Both positions stopped out

2: One position stopped out

3: No positions stopped out

Each outcome will provide a data-point where to focus (or not) in the current environment.

LABD-22-10:

Entry @ 18.1398: Stop @ 16.83

JDST-22-05

Entry @ 9.1666: Stop @ 8.79

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Market Set-Up … This Week

October 16, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Basic Materials, Bonds, David Weis, DJUSBM, Gold & Silver, IYM, IYR, J.P. Morgan, LABD, LABD-22-08, Michael Cowan, Positions, SLV, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Survival Lilly, TLT, TMF, TSLA, Van Metre, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 4 Comments

What To Watch

First off, it’s nice to know, traders at J.P. Morgan, don’t have clue as what to do.

They say it themselves; Not One Person

On top of that, I’m supposed to pay money reading about how clueless they are. 🙂

No thanks. Let’s see if we can do better than the average ‘investment firm’.

Before we get started, a reminder; as Michael Cowen says:

‘It’s the bear market that reveals those who really understand’, not the bull market ‘geniuses‘.

With that, let’s get into it; first up, is silver.

Silver: Wyckoff Analysis Results

The downside reversal was identified to the day.

Adding to that post, Europeans could not only be freezing or starving this winter, but also subject to radiation poisoning.

Surely, they’re all thinking that ‘stack’ of silver is going to save them.

Silver (along with gold) remain trending lower.

Silver (SLV) is currently at support levels; therefore, some upward action (staying below SLV: 18.5) is normal behavior.

Bonds: Are They Ready?

Hold your nose … bonds could be setting up for a rally.

As Steven Van Metre reports here, the Fed ‘shenanigan’ meter is pegged.

Bonds, TLT Weekly

Note, the bullish TLT, set-up is not confirmed until MACD ticks higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Also note the repeating pattern of ‘spring to up-thrust‘.

Last up, biotech

Biotech SPBIO, Hourly (Inverted)

We’re going to use the chart from yesterday’s post to set the stage for getting closer-in.

This past Friday’s early morning ‘spike’ is barely visible; the 30-minute (inverted) chart below, has more detail.

SPBIO, 30-minute (Inverted)

Price action rejected the lower levels (higher on SPBIO) and pulled away throughout the session. That ‘pulling away’ continued on, all the way into the close.

That’s a clue there may be follow-through at the next session.

If the early session opens ‘gap-higher’ (SPBIO, lower), into the resistance area (four magenta arrows, hourly chart), it would be the fourth time pressuring at this area; markets rarely hold a fourth attempt.

Summary

Of course, other markets are being watched like real estate (IYR), Tesla (TSLA), and even Basic Materials (DJUSBM), a potential sleeper for significant downside.

Updates are planned if/when low risk shows up.

Positions: Current Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

The following is the positioning of my firm’s main (largest) account.

LABD-22-08:

LABD Entry @ 25.1278, 24.735, 26.025, 22.99, 22.29***, Stop is @ LABD 21.23***

***, Indicates change

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax Crash … What’s Next ?

October 2, 2022 By in Activist Post, CVNA, KMX, Mass Psychosis, Michael Cowan 2 Comments

First, The Dead Cat Bounce …

What was said back then …

“As the economy (if you can call it that) falls off the cliff, one of these two (KMX, CVNA), is not likely to survive.”

It looks like Carvana is swirling down its ‘disruptive’ vending machine wormhole, leaving CarMax to pick up whatever’s left of the car ‘consumer’.

The latest earnings release of KMX, confirms what’s left of the typical consumer’s purchasing power, is evaporating if not completely gone.

Still Clueless …

It’s not necessarily the linked earnings report on KMX that’s important, but the comments.

We’ll not call out any specific one but after reading them, there’s an uneasy sense, the typical American is still wandering around in a type of hypnotic, delusional state, namely, mass psychosis.

They’re stunned … ‘looking for the bottom’.

Everyone has their own timeframe but let’s see where an ultimate bottom for KMX, might be on the charts below.

CarMax, KMX, Yearly Chart

The big … big picture

There are three-months left in the year but already the thrust energy lower (magenta arrow) for KMX, is the highest in nearly 26-years of data presented.

Not even the ’08 – ’09, meltdown had downside energy anywhere close to what’s happening now.

That’s a clue in itself, we’ve got a long way to go.

How long, is long?

The quarterly chart of KMX gives us a clue where we might see a ‘bottom’.

CarMax, KMX, Quarterly Chart

Above, we’ve got a terminating wedge (blue lines) that’s been decades in the making.

As the magenta arrow shows, there could be small blip up to resistance in the 85-area before potentially rolling over into a descent that projects to the 4.00, level.

If and when that happens, CarMax rival Carvana, may be long gone; its disruptive vending machines possibly being used as homeless shelters or insect farms.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279