During the internet bubble of the 2000s, after the trend break in the QQQs, price action immediately began its long (multi-year) descent.
Naturally, it would follow when comparing that bubble, with the A.I. bubble, as was done here, one would have thought once the trend is broken, down we go.
Not so, today.
Instead, we have depending on how it’s measured, at least ten-weeks (so far), testing of that break.
Is it all about to change? Are we at ‘tests’ end?
Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close
The most recent update showing the ‘trend break’ as discussed above, is here.
The chart below, presents a possible ‘last gasp’ for the SOXX (not advice, not a recommendation).
From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, the market ‘by its own action’, has told us the axis line above, is important.
If the chart is correct and we’ve had a false breakout (Wyckoff Up-Thrust), the expectation is for downside follow-through (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
We’re still waiting for a more definitive short-sell signal on the SOXX, but it’s the QQQs that may be setting up first (not advice, not a recommendation).
The chart below shows the QQQ’s have essentially stopped dead right above resistance.
Upside force has gone missing.
Nasdaq QQQ, Daily
Price broke out above resistance (blue line) with upside pressure diverging.
Of course, anything can happen, and price could continue to drift higher.
However, if there’s a lower daily low and lower close for the next session, the risk on a short trade via QID or similar, is well established (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Nemont Mining (NEM), Gold, and the Oil & Gas Sector are at a critical juncture.
The rest of the major indices, Dow, S&P, QQQs, real estate (IYR), and so on, are in a similar position.
For this update, we’ll focus on Newmont (NEM), as it’s the largest cap in the Senior Mining Sector GDX, and a general representative of the commodities markets.
Financial collapse is a process, not an event.
Newmont topped-out in April, of last year. Exxon, the proxy for the Oil & Gas sector, may have reached its highs this past November.
Where’s The Inflation?
As Michael Cowan has just reported, banks are absconding with depositor’s money under the guise of ‘bail-in’.
If the fiat cash is so worthless, why are banks seizing it?
As Robert Prechter Jr., said years ago, ‘all fiat cash ultimately goes to zero’; the end game (most likely) for the dollar. However, it could be months, years, or even a decade before that happens.
For right now, today, this minute, the data is showing us, the banks want the money; ‘Show me the money‘.
With that, let’s look at the non-existent ‘inflation’ in the mining sector.
Newmont Mining NEM, Weekly
The first chart identifies the heavy volume and then test of wide price bars. This behavior is common in the markets; they tend to come back and test wide high-volume areas.
Next, we see there’s a terminating wedge developing as volume declines; the inference, is lack of significant commitment at these price levels.
We’ll get close-in on the wedge; last week printed a lower weekly low and closed lower for the week.
There’s no breakdown of the wedge … yet.
At this juncture, it’s up to the bulls to show they’re still in control.
Inflation vs. Scarcity
We have without a doubt, the effects of the event from the past three years gaining momentum. Whether or not those effects reach a peak this year, is unknown.
A lot of the mainstream and YouTuber’s alike talk about the upward move in gold as the result of ‘inflation’.
Here’s a little bit of insight you’ll not find anywhere else; how about gold rising because the above mentioned ‘effects‘ are causing production volumes to decline?
Maybe it’s because of scarcity (along with nearly everything else) that’s causing the increase in price.
Just to drive that idea home, the latest total gold production numbers, listed here.
Gold production for 2020 dropped -8.2%, from the year prior. Year 2021 was down -1%, from 2020.
From 2010 to 1019, gold production increased or was flat year over year … that is, until 2020.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
If we use the S&P as the proxy, it hardly even lasted that long.
Going back to just four days ago, we had this (emphasis added):
“It’s well known, stocks tend to rise in the first weeks of January. Tax loss selling is over and there’s typically some type of ‘relief’.
Don’t count on it this time (not advice, not a recommendation).”
Market Meets Expectations
It was expected on the first trading day of the year, the market would continue its downtrend.
After this morning’s 15-minute blip, that’s exactly what’s happening.
We’ve already discussed real estate IYR, (here, here and here) as well as the Q’s (here).
Now, there appears to be another sign of impending price collapse … the oil sector; specifically, Oil & Gas Index XOP.
As is typical, we’ll begin the analysis with the longer time frame, the weekly.
Oil & Gas Sector XOP, Weekly
There’s no secret to the chart below other than Livermore’s admonition for going short; that is, he finds a market that ‘goes down and stays down’ (not advice, not a recommendation).
The prior two down-drafts were quickly retraced; one in mid-July last year and one in September.
Not so, this time.
If we go to the daily, we have an ominous look where a downtrend could be validated.
Oil & Gas Sector XOP, Daily
The right-side trend is drawn as a dashed line, revealing the attempted breakout on the last two sessions in December.
Attempted trend line and channel breakouts are normal market behavior.
It’s clear in the case above, price action has quickly got itself back into the trading channel.
Summary
Of course, oil prices are not supposed to go down, right?
At this juncture, look at all the conflict and potential supply disruptions that are possible.
However, the price of oil and the price of the exploration/production equities are two separate things.
The price of oil could skyrocket further, and yet, the equites still collapse. Bear markets are all about price, wealth, and credit destruction.
Typical short positioning trade vehicles for this sector are DRIP (-2X) and DUG (-2X), or to short the XOP directly (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
There tends to be a period of consolidation and organized chaos, before price action enters and exhibits channel behavior.
Of course, the problem from a trading perspective, be able to wait through the chaos getting to the set-up and that’s no small feat.
Several of the major indices are in a channel right now. Those are (ETF symbol) SPY, QQQ, IYR and IWM.
We’ll discuss the Q’s farther down but first, this just out, on ZeroHedge, concerning the overall economic conditions.
That is, we’re already in full scale economic collapse and they have the data to prove it.
As incredible as it may be, there are still sectors of the population that believe, ‘the consumer is strong’.
A big wake-up call is coming for them. Oh wait, is that a telephone ringing off in the distance 🙂
The media lies appear to be crumbling at an exponential rate; there’s no guarantee it’ll all hold together into late January, or mid-February as presented only yesterday.
From a Nasdaq (QQQ), technology sector perspective, we have the following.
NASDAQ QQQ, Weekly
The Q’s began the week with a lower open and within the range of the prior week.
It’s a subtle clue the direction remains down and the market’s not volatile … just yet.
Next up, is the channel
It has the right ‘look’.
Moving in closer; the right-side trend line verification (hits).
There are no fewer than four weekly hits (including today) that verify the right side. The attempted push out of the channel is identified as the ‘Throw-Over’.
Attempted breakouts (and failures) are common market behaviors. We see that price action quickly got itself back into the channel.
Get In … Get Out
At this juncture, price action remains in the channel.
A short position (via QID, or equivalent) is a viable choice for the trader/speculator (not advice, not a recommendation).
For the reasons described above (the collapse), we appear to still be in the early stages of the down channel.
Obvious discretionary exit points for a short trade would be left side contact of the channel i.e., the ‘demand’ side or a decisive right-side breakout i.e., the ‘supply’ side (not advice, not a recommendation).
Summary
In a separate market, Netflix (NFLX), may have hit the right side of its own tend line as well.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The majority of the indices are at their right-side channel lines.
We’ll cover semiconductor SOXX, and QQQs, below. However, biotech IBB, and SPBIO, are in similar positions.
From a calendar and data standpoint, there’ll be plenty that could be used as an ‘excuse’ for market moves but let’s ignore the (intended) distractions and take a look at what the market is saying about itself.
First up, is the semiconductor index, the SOXX.
Semiconductor’s, SOXX, Daily
The chart has Fibonacci retrace levels shown. Price action has retraced to 38.2% and stalled.
But wait, there’s more.
Putting in a trading channel, we could be at a reversal point.
Note the upward thrust energy (‘Force’) has dissipated.
the NASDAQ is in a similar situation but weaker from a retrace standpoint.
NASDAQ, QQQ, Daily
Looking at the monthly chart for the Q’s (not shown), it’s been a Fibonacci 13-months since all-time highs.
Force dissipation and ‘Contact Points’ are near identical to the SOXX.
Summary
Biotech IBB and SPBIO, are in similar positions. In fact, the overall markets appear poised for downside reversal.
As discussed in the last update, the bond market could be signaling danger ahead with its sharp upward reversal; now (potentially) entering its sixth week.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 